3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 7006.50 during the session and then dropped to a low of 6969. Price has since bounced back toward the 6980s, leaving the day as a wide but two-sided range.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline from the peak unfolded in five subwaves, which suggests the bounce is a corrective upward move—an internal subwave within the broader pullback—while the larger working count remains intact: rising wave D{-11} is still the main wave moving price.

Decision points. 7006.50 is now the nearest upside checkpoint; reclaiming and holding above it would weaken the corrective interpretation and reopen the door to a stronger push higher. On the downside, 6969 is the day’s key low; a decisive break and hold below it would strengthen the case that the correction is extending rather than ending.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight high of 6997.50, declined into the 6980s, tested the high again but remained below it, and then—beginning at 7:30 a.m. ET—sold off sharply to 6970.50. From there, price rebounded back into the 6980s and rose higher after the opening bell.

What does it mean? Despite the drama, there is no change in the Elliott Wave Theory working count: Wave D{-11} remains in the active upswing. But today’s failure at 6997.50 plus the sharp 7:30 a.m. ET drop raises the odds we’re shifting into the next corrective leg unless price can reclaim and hold above 6997.50.

Decision points. Bulls need to reclaim and hold 6997.50 first; above that, the next upside checkpoints are 7027.25 and then 7043. If price breaks back below 6970.50, today’s rebound is likely only a bounce, and the market opens the door to a deeper pullback toward the next support zones.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • D{-11} (none), 2/5/2026, 6751.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com