3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 6897.75 after dipping to 6808.75 and then fell back into the 6840s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave E{-11} continues, although it is not yet robustly confirmed, leaving open the possibility that rising wave D{-11} is now underway.

9:52 a.m. New York time

After the opening bell. After the session open, the futures broke to a fresh low at 6808.75, confirming that the post-CPI bounce did not resolve the decline and strengthening the case that wave E{-11} is still pressing lower.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures whipsawed with the release of the Consumer Price Index report before the opening bell. The price fell to its low for the session, 6820, then rose to 6865 and rapidly retreating to the 6840s before rising again, remaining below the high point of the initial rise.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to show falling wave E{-11} as being underway, a subwave of declining wave C{-10}, subwave of a larger declining wave C{-9}, which in turn is a subwave of a downward correction, wave 4{-8}.

The chart is buried deep within the 4th wave, and all of the subwaves are nearing their ends.

However, the wave E{-11} label still covers some ambiguity. It’s possible that the preceding movement, rising wave D{-11}, is still underway. A move beyond the CPI-response peak, 6865, lowers the odds that wave E{-11} is in fact underway and increases the odds that D{-11} is still in progress. A move below 6820, the pre-CPI low point, increases the odds that wave E{-11} is indeed underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3;30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com