3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit the day’s peak early in the session, 6930.25, and then went into a near-constant fall. In the 6830s it bounced into the 6860s, fell again and bounced. It is now repeating the test.

Elliott Wave Theory: No change from this morning. Wave E{-11} continues its decline.

Decision points. Also no change. See the section below in this morning’s analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures bided its time when trading resumed overnight, fluctuating between the 6920s and the 6860s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that a falling series of subwaves within a declining 4th-wave correction, within a subwave of a rising 4th-wave correction, are underway.

From the smaller degree to the larger, the waves are E{-11}, C{-10}, C{-9}, 4{-8}, C{-7} within wave 4{-6}.

Wave E{-11} began on February 11 from 7011.50. What happens when it ends?

Wave E{-11} is the final subwave of wave C{-10}, which is also a final wave. As is not uncommon in Elliott Wave Theory, the end of a final wave triggers a series of larger final waves, in this case up to wave 4{-8}, which began on January 13 from 7036.25. Rising wave 5{-8} will begin, eventually carrying its parent, wave C{-7}, to completion.

Decision points

,By the AI ChatGPT 

• Primary posture: Neutral / wait-and-watch.
  The market remains range-bound and directionless at the smallest degree, consistent with an ongoing wave E{-11} finalization. No action is required while price continues to fluctuate sideways within the established overnight range.
• Key structural event to monitor: The completion of wave E{-11}.
  When wave E{-11} ends, it should trigger the completion of its parent wave C{-10}, which in turn sets off a cascading completion of larger-degree corrective waves up through wave 4{-8}. This sequence would mark a structural inflection point, not necessarily an immediate directional surge.
• Upside implication (conditional):
  Confirmation of wave E{-11} completion would imply the start of rising wave 5{-8}, beginning the final advance within wave C{-7}. Any upside move should be evaluated first for impulse characteristics (range expansion, follow-through), rather than assumed continuation.
• Downside risk:
  A decisive break below the recent overnight lows would suggest that wave E{-11} is extending or morphing, delaying the anticipated resolution. In that case, expectations for a near-term transition to wave 5{-8} would be deferred.
• Headline risk overlay:
  Given the elevated uncertainty surrounding tariff-related political developments, any sudden price movement should be treated as headline-driven until proven otherwise. Structural confirmation, not speed, will determine whether a move is actionable.
• Action bias:
  No new directional commitments until wave E{-11} clearly completes and the market demonstrates acceptance of a new directional phase.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com