3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peeked into the 6470s befoe withdrawing slightly during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory: The slight rise might well be the 4th subwave of wave C, the final subwave of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 15. However, it seems to be somewhat to soon for a 4th wave, given the size of other movements within the correction. Time will bring clarity to the chart labelling.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell into the 6430s early in overnight trading an thereafter traded narrowly, reaching into the 6450s at the highest.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged from the day before: The final subwave, wave C, of a three way corrective pattern, wave 4, continues.

Mostly likely wave C will be the end of the parent wave 4. Occasionally a correction will contain two or three of the three-wave corrective patterns, delaying the end of the correction overall. I’ve seen it occur most often in 4th waves, and it’s rare.

Yesterday’s afternoon analysis had an alternative, that wave B might still be underway. That reading of the chart is off the table. I have no doubt that wave C is the correct principal analysis.

Yesterday’s analysis also took a stab a estimating how low wave C will go, based on Fibonacci retracement levels. At the least it will likely decline to around 6350 — the same length as the preceding A waved — and could reach further.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/22/2025, 6496.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 26, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded within a narrow range during the session. Elliott Wave Theory: The movement is consistent with falling wave C being underway, while leaving open the possibility that wave B will continue its rise.

I think wave C has the strongest case in its favor, and assuming events play out that way, here are some estimates about how far C can fall. Often, waves A and C have about the same length, giving C a likely endpoint around 6350. Sometimes, wave C is more extensive, running a Fibonacci multiplier more than the length of A, carrying wave C down to 6260. There’s an area of clusternng between 6310 and 6350 which may encompass the end point.

Once wave C is complete, it’s likely that wave 4 will also be complete. Uptrending wave 5 will follow, carrying the uptrending parent wave 3 and the uptrending grandparent wave 1 further toward their goals.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 6490s to to the 6460s after trading resumed overnight.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that there are two possible interpretations of the chart.

One sees the August 22 peak, 6496.25, as the end of the middle subwave, wave B, of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14, and declining wave C as being underway. I’ve adopted this as my principle analysis, as reflected in the mark-up of the chart The alternative analysis sees the present, shallow decline as a subwave within still-underway wave B, which is still underway.

If the decline continues, the wave C scenario is confirmed. If the price reverses and rises to a new high, the wave B scenario is confirmed.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/22/2025, 6496.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 has peaked so far this session at 6496.25 and has stayed close to that mark.

Elliott Wave Theory: This morning’s analysis after Fed Chair Powell completed his speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming conference has stayed unchanged: The 4th-wave downtrend that began on August 14 continues. It ended its first subwave, wave A, on August 20, and simultaneously began its second subwave, wave B, which is stilll underway.

Wave A appears to have had three subwaves, although reading the waves is a bit messy. That makes it a Flat correction, meaning that the B wave is allowed under the rules to move above the starting point of the A wave, 6508.75.

If A were counted as having five subwaves, then the corrective form would be a Zigzag and if wave B were to move above the start of wave A, it would violate the rules and require a re-analysis.

My principal analysis sees wave 4 as a Flat.

Wave 4 — all three subwaves — under the rules cannot move below the start of the preceding 1st wave of the same degree. The 1st wave began on August 5 from 6313.25 and forms the precise lowest possible point of wave 4.

10:40 a.m. New York time.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of lower interest rate changes over the near term and changes in Fed policy over the longer term. The S&P 500 futures began to rise six minutes before he began speaking, reaching a session high so far to 6491.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline clarified that the first subwave of the 4th-wave downward correction, wave A, ended on August 20 at 6362.75, and rising wave B is now underway.

Fibonacci Retracement calculations suggest wave B may end somewhere between 6500 and 6516. Possibly. These are low certainty projections.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low of 6364 overnight and then rose into the back above 6400 as traders positioned their holdings for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming conference,at 10 a.m. New York time.

The Fed, and especially Powell, have been criticized by President Trump for not lowering interest rates faster, and there has been much speculation that his speech would suggest a turning point in Federal Open Market Committee policy.

Or maybe not. At this point, all is uncertainty.

This analysis is being published 25-minutues befor the speech. I’ll post another analysis after the message of the speech becomes clear. And then a third analysis half an hour before the closing bell at 3:30 p.m. New York time

What does it mean? The pattern shown by Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged from from where it has been since August 20:

• The 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14 from 6508.75.
• The decline reached a low within wave 4 of 6362.75.on August 20.
• The price has remained above that level, just barely, ever since.
• Without a signifiant turn to the upside, wave 4 is most likely in its initial subwav, wave A.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• B{-10} (unnamed), 8/30/2025, 6362.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 6370s, slightly higher than yesterday’s low.

Elliott Wave Theory: The alternatives listed in this morning’s analysis remain unresolved: Wave 4 continues its decline and may be continuing wave A, it’s initial subwave, or may have begun wave B, its middle of three subwaves.

Big event: Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses the Federal Reserve conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 10 a.m. New York time on Friday. Alternatives: The speech will change the Federal Open Market Committee’s strategic goals for managing the dollar, which have been in place since 2012, giving us all a new world to navigate in, or the speech will leave everything as is, giving us a world that works just as it has been for more than a decade.

An interesting day for traders.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 6410s to the 6380s overnight, remaining above the low point so far, 6362.75 on August 20, in the decline that began on August 14 from 6508.75.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the decline as abeing a 4th-wave downward correction. Wave 4 would appear to be in its initial subwave, falling wave A, or perhaps in its second subwave, rising wave B. There’s a lack of clarity so far.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 21, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low early on of 6362.75, and then worked its way slightly higher, into the 6410s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The idea behind Elliott Wave Theory is that it represents the group mood, and understanding, and fear and optimism of the traders and the people who surround the traders — which is to say everyone — at a given moment in time.

Elliott Wave Theory at this moment in says the mood etc. is somewhat negative, worried that the price has moved too high among many other subjects. It’s a concern that has been with people since August 14. That’s the meaning of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on that date.

Arguably, from the past few days through 10 a.m. New York time on Friday, the mood will focus on Fed Chair Powell and his speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming meeting of the Federal Reserve. It is a fear-making time for people who are concerned about how the Federal Reserve is governed and what it means for the value of our currency, and so yes, Elliott Wave Theory has numbers and rules and a certain sense of inevitability. And yet, above all, it’s the product of people. Look at a stock chart, and you can know, instantly, what their mood is. And we’ll get a super dose of mood and response come Friday.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued a gentle fall overnight, reaching a low of 6408.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14 continues. Within wave 4, things are less clear. It seems to be that wave 4 is still in its initial subwave, wave A, but I would have difficulty mapping the internals. It’s almost as through the futures were awaiting, with a bearish tilt, Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell at Friday’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming meeting of the Federal Reserve leadership. Powell is scheduled to speak at 10 a.m. Eastern time. The title of his speech: “Economic Outlook and Framework Review”.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 20, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell further during the session, reaching into the 6410s. Elliot Wave Theory: The 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to work its way lower overnight, reacing a low of 6454.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The declining 4th-wave correction that began on August 14 continues, in a pattern that to my eyes more closely resembles subwaves within an A wave, the first portion of a three-wave correction. There are ambiguities, however, as discussed in yesterday’s analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 19, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fluctuated sideways during the session, bouncing between the 6450s and the 6470s.

Elliott Wave Theory: This morning’s analysis discussed a lack of clarity: Was wave A underway or wave C?. The present rise in a choppy fashion suggests that it was wave A. So the new choice: Is the choppiness a subwave of wave A, such as a 4th-wave correction, or has wave A ended and wave B, still choppy, begun? A puzzle to be studied overnight and tomorrow.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. S&P 500 E-mini futures fell into the 6450s in a lackadaisical start tot he week.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline as being a 4th-wave downward correction that began last week, on August 14. It is a subwave of a rising 3rd wave that began on August 7, which in turn is a rising 1st wave within an uptrendng 5th wave that began on August 1.

The smallest of the waves listed, the 4th, appears to be in its 3rd subwave, the C wave, although it may well be the 3rd wave of the A wave, with two more subwaves lying ahead.

If its wave C, then a 4th wave correction is almost complete. If its wave A, there is more correction, risng waves B and falling wave C, that lie ahead.

Wave 4 will be followed by an uptrendng 5th wave, and how high wave 5 will go depends, roughly, on how low wave 4 has gone when it is complete.

Whichever scenario wave 4 follows,, wave 5 will likely end in the upper 6500s or the lower 6600s, based on Fibonacci resistance.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 18, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined throughout the day from Thursday’s peak, 6308.75.

Elliott Wave Theory: The peak appears to be the end of a rising 3rd wave that began on August 5 from 6313.25, and the beginning of a 4th-wave downtrend.

The fall is not yet very deep, and that produces a lack of strong confidence in the analysis. The price could reverse today in the half hour remaining before the end of the session, or it could do so on Monday. Whenever, a swift reversal would suggest that my theory is wrong and wave 3 is still underway.

If instead the price continues to fall, then my theory was correct and wave 4 is underway.

Time will tell.

The waves in play appear as wave 3{-9} and wave 4{-9} within rising wave 3{-8}, a subwave of rising wave 1{-7}.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a high of 6508.75 overnight.

What does it mean? I’ve moved the chart into a closer view in order to see the details of the present rise, which began on August 1. Elliott Wave Theory sees that rise as the 1st subwave within a 5th wave. For clarity, I’ll describe the waves using the chart’s method: A wave number followed by a subscript in curly brackets noting the degree’s distance from Intermediate degree (presently wave 5{-0}, which began in February 2016).

Wave 1{-7} has been underway since August 1, as has its parent, wave 5{-6}. Internally, wave1{-7} is in its made subwave, wave 3{-8}, which in turn is in wave 3{-9}.

Wave 5{-6} is the final subwave within wave 3{-5}, which began on April 25, and which is a subwave of wave 1{-4}, one degree higher, which began on April 7.

Encompassing all is wave 1{-3}, which began on October 13, 2022.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 4-hour bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 15, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 a.m. New York time

Half an hour before the losing bell. The S&P 500 futures barely budged during the session, remaining in the 6480s after peaking at 6502.50 the day before.

Elliott Wave Theory: The uptrending 3rd wave that began April 21 continues on its final subwave, wave 5. That 5th wave, in turn, appears to be in its 5h wave, although the wave divisions lack clarity at that degree.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. Overnight, the S&P 500 E-mini futures remained slightly below the August 13 peak, 6502.50, until an hour before the opening bell, when it fell sharply down to the 6450s. The declne coincided with the releasse of two economic reports, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Producer Price Index.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline meaning little. It is a small step back within an uptrendng 5th-wave that began on August 1.

In terms of wave numnrs and their degrees relative to Intermediate degree, the overnight decline is a subwave within risng wve 3{-8} within risng wav 1{-7} within rising wave 5{-6}, the smallest of a 3-degree grouping.

Minuscule indeed.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 14, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to creep higher during the session, so far reaching above 3500. Elliott Wave Theory: The uptrending 5th wave that began on August 1 from 6349.50 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight reaching 6488.50.

What does it mean? The high exceeded the late July high, 6468.50, which had appeared to be the end of a major uptrend and the beginnng of a downtrend.

Elliott Wave Theory shows that such was not the case. EWT has a firm rule that a 2nd wave can’t move beyond the start of the preceding 1st wave. The new high did just that. When the map no longer matches the terrain, the map must be redrawn.

My redrawing the wave labels to bring them back into appiance with Elliott Wave Theory rules workes like this:

• Waves 1{-3}, 5{-4] and 5{-5} have not yet ended but are still underway.
• Wave 5{-6} is in its 5th wave, also underway
• Wave 5{-6]’s initial subwave, wave 1{-7}, is also underway.

And with those changes, the map once again matchs the terrain. Let’s see where it takes us.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 13, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.