3:30 p.m. New York time

More on the chart. The process of eliminating the rule violations brought me back to October 13, 2022, the beginning of wave 3{-2}, making end-point/beginnng-point changes where needed. The goal was to have wave 1{-3} end at the July 31 peak, less than a week ago. That outcome best matched the structure of numerous waves.

On a previous day I mentioned the problem with labeling a new wave early in its journey. Settng the degree of the wave is a guess. Only later is there some clarity, and by then both I and other Elliott Wave analysts I know are deeply involved with the lower-degree details. I took the opportunity to clean out the proliferation of ever smaller waves, and the chart gained in clarity.

But the risk remains. What I’ve numbered as wave 1{-5} within wave A{-4} could well be wave 1{-6} within wave 1{-5} within wave A{-4}. So it begins, and there is no way whatsoever that can be certain which degree is correct. I find it to be the most irritating part of Elliott Wave Theory.

I’ve added a Fibonacci retracement ladder to the close-up chart, below. It shows wave 2{-5} as having stalled at the 50% retracement level.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise, without the dramatic urgency of the preceding decline, reaching into the 6340s.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

Why has the chart changed? Last week several Elliott Wave Theory rules were broken, and I reached back to reanalyze the labeling in order to solve that problem. The chart posted today reflects those changes.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly as trading resumed overnight, reaching the 6410s from a low of 6233.50.

What does it mean? In my Elliott Wave Theory analysis I’ve labeled wave A{-4} within wave 2{-3} as being underway. The decline is fairly short compared to wave has occured before. I don’t see how wave 2 can be complete. The same goes for wave A, the first subwave of wave A.

So my principal analysis is that wave A continues, having competed its 1st subwave, declining wave 1{-5}. the overnight rise is rising wave 2{-5}, a rising correction within wave A.

Two charts…

The Big Picture:

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars, with volume] 

A Close-up:

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30.m., 10-minute bars, with volume] 

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 4, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, albeit it at a slower rate. The low as of this filing is 6239.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave 4{-15} has moved below the starting point of wave 3{-15} from 6288.25 on July 16.

One firm rule of Elliott is that a 4th wave is that a 4th waves never moves below the preceding 1st wave’s beginning. Wave 1{-15} began on July 16 from 6241. So wave 4{-15} has become a scofflaw, and fixing that problem will be part of the weekend’s reanalysis of the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight, reaching into the 6280s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory suggests the possibility that wave A, the first subwave of the declining 4th wave that began on July 31, ended at that low and that wave B has begun. Suggests, but it’s not a certainty. Anyone who works with charts has been stung by a false end-of-wave signal when a declining wave is bottom fishing.

So until we have a greater rise to confirm that wave B underway, I’m retaining the A-wave-underway scenario as the principal analysis, and adding the B-wave-underway scenario as an alternative analysis.

Looking at things more broadly, I think it’s time to perform a reanalysis of the waves that led us to the July 31 peak, which is my normal cautionary practice after a major turning point. It sometimes happens that the degrees get muddled as a larger wave progresses. While the waves themselves are clear, the degrees always run the risk of ambiguity in Elliott Wave Theory. A project for the weekend.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 4{-15} (unnamed), 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• A{-16} (unnamed}, 7/31/2025, 6488.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 1, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to decline rapidly and by an hour before the session ends had reached the 6360s

Elliott Wave Theory: That puts the price below the likely range of wave A’s end: 6380 to 6370.

The 2nd subwave, rising wave B, will begin soon. Wave A had five subwaves, which means that the correction is taking the Zigzag pattern. B waves of that pattern tend to retrace 50% to 75% of wave A.

12:50 p.m. New York time

A high-degree correction begins. The S&P 500 futures peaked overnight and the ensing decline picked up speed as the session began. The low point so far is 6402.25.

From this point in the discussion I’ll use the numbering system that appears on the chart: The wave number followed by a degree placement in relation to Intermediate degree, as a subscript in curly brackets. For example, {-15} means 15 degrees below Intermediate degree

Elliott Wave Theory: The price has fallen sufficiently — a 61.8% retracement of wave 5{-18} — to count as validating that the peak price was the end of wave 5{-19}, which we have been tracking. Above that wave are three 5th waves, each one degree higher than the last. They are waves 5{-16}, 5{-17} and 5{-16}.

The next wave one degree larger was wave 3{-15}, which began on July 16 from 6288.25. That wave also met it end today, ushering in wave 4{-15}, a downward correction. That correction is in wave A{-16}.

How low can it go? For wave A{-16}, the downside target is somewhere between 6380 and 6370, based on Fibonacci retracement of the preceding 3rd wave, wave 3{-15}.

There are usually three subwaves in a correction. If that’s the case with wave 4{-15}, then falling wave A{-16} will be followed by rising wave B{-16} and then completed by falling wave C{-16}. For the correction as a whole, the target range of wave 4{-15} is from 6345 to 6315.

The chart has been updated for the 3:30 p.m. New York time analysis.:

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight peak of 6468.50 and then pulled back slightly. After the rapid movements with the session, it looks like a return to normalcy.

What does it mean? The sharp rise that began in yesterday’s session, from 6366.75, is anything but normal. Elliott Wave Theory sees it was wave 5, but to make it consistent with other waves of the same degree, I’ve had to mark as the 3rd and 4th subwaves minuscule declines. The decline that began overnight and is still underway is the first break in the rise of significant size, and even it is on the small side relative to the uptrending subwaves.

So am I certain about the structure of the rise? Not in the least. Am I certain that wave 5 is in its 5th subwave, as marked on the chart? Not in the least. Could the rise be an incredibly large 1st wave? I can’t rule it out entirely.

I’m often pounding on the drum of ambiguity, and I’m doing it again today: Ambiguity abounds, and the future, even within the structure of Elliott Wave Theory, is uncertain.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 15-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

[Updated to match the revised, afternoon analysis.]

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 4{-15} (unnamed), 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• A{-16} (unnamed}, 7/31/2025, 6488.50 (down

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 31, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 6402.25 in the early hours of the session, rising thereafter until the Federal Open Martket Committee announced its decision to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged. The futures fell for 3 minutes from 6424 to 6412.50, and then began to follow a sideways course that peaked at 6420s and fell to the 6410s.

And then, with no visible reason, the price dropped from the 6420 to the 6360s. Perhaps it was a flash-crash, an algorithm gone wrong. Honestly, at this point I have no idea.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rising 4th-wave correction that began on July 29 continued to rise, remaining below the end of the preceding 3rd wave. That’s the principal analysis, same as it was this morning.

The sharp decline less than an hour before the closing bell erased the ambiguity from the chart. Falling wave 5 within falling wave C within the 4th-wave downward correction is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching into the 6410s. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision on interest rates at 2 p.m. New York time.

What does it mean? One of the rules of Elliott Wave Theory is that in a three-subwave correction, the 3rd subwave in turn has five subwaves. At present declining wave C is n a 4th-wave upward correction . All of this is happening within a larger 4th-wave downward correction, which ispart of an uptrending 5th wave that began on July 24.

When the 4th subwave within wave C reaches its end, rising wave 5 will begin, carrying wave C to its end, along with its parent, wave 4, and its grand-parent, wave 5.

These are all waves of low degree, so however it plays out, it will all happen quickly.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 15-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/22/2025, 6318.75 (up)
• 5{-17} (unnamed), 7/24/2024, 6391.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 30, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply during the session, reaching within cents of 6400.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline was sufficient to disprove the prior principal analysis, that saw wave 5 as underway. The Wave 4 downward correction continues and has completed two of its subwaves, waves A and B. The final subwave, wave C, is in progress and has reached below the end of wave A, which is typical of C waves.

When wave C is complete — and that will likely be very soon — the 4th wave correction will also be complete, and uptrending wave 5 will have begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight into the 6440s and then began to fall..

What does it mean? The rise, Elliott Wave Theory suggests, are the first steps within a low-degree 5th wave. The preceding 4th wave ended on July 28 at the 61.8% Fibonacce retracement level of preceding 3rd wave.

It’s possible that the July 28 low was the end of the first subwave, an A wave, within the 4th-wae downward correction, and that the subsequent rise was wave B. Under this alternative analysis, the decline that began overnight is wave C within the 4th wave.

If the price falls to 6415 or so, the alternative scenario, wave 4 continues, is probably the more likely analysis. If the price rises to 6450, the the principal scenario — wave 5 is underway — is the better of two scenarios.

For the moment, my principal analysis has wave 5 as having begun on July 28.

All of this is happening within a nested series of three 5th waves, which are in turn part of a rising 3rd wave that began on July 16

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

[Updated to conform with the closing analysis.]

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/22/2025, 6318.75 (up)
• 5{-17} (unnamed), 7/24/2024, 6391.50 (up)
• 4{-18} (unnamed), 7/27/224, 6457.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 29, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Elliott Wave Theory: The S&P 500 futures continue to work through a 4th-wave downward correction that began over night and so far has retraced a great deal of the preceding 3rd wave, having paused at 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement ladder.

The waves are of a relatively small degree — days rather than weeks, and I expect wave 4 to end its decline an wave 5 to begin its rise, perhaps tomorrow or perhaps on Wednesday.

12:05 p.m. New York time.

[Note: Late due to technical issues.]

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures .resumed trading with a 24.75 opening gap to the upside as the new week began. The price rose further to 6457.75, and then reversed, working its way back down into the 6410s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the opening gap and subsequent rise as the end of the low-degree 3rd wave that began on July 25 and the beginnng of a 4th-wave downward correction. Wave 5 will follow, completing a larger 5th wave that began on July 24.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12:05 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/22/2025, 6318.75 (up)
• 5{-17} (unnamed), 7/24/2024, 6391.50 (up)
• 4{-18} (unnamed), 7/25/224, 6457.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 28, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed its rise during the session, reaching the 6430s so far.

Elliott Wave Theory analysis: Wave 5 continues its uptrending movement within a larger 5th wave. Within the smaller 5th wave, it’s middle subwave is underway, wave 3.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from 6421.25 to 6402 and then rose slightly.

What does it mean? There were three subwaves within the decline 4th-wave downward correction that began on July 23, classical corrective pattern with Elliott Wave Theory. The subsequent rise by position would be uptrending wave 5, the final subwave within a larger 5th wave that began on July 22.

However, it’s messy. The advance from 6391.50 lacks the strong, impulsive character typically expected of a 5th wave. The current movement is overlapping and sluggish, raising the possibility that wave 5{-17} could form as a diagonal or other complex structure. A drop below 6391.50 would invalidate this early 5th-wave interpretation.

Another, less likely alternative is that what is labeled as the end of wave 3 is in fact the beginning of a subwave within 3 rather than being wave 4 as the same degree as wave 3. The internals of wave 3 seems complete in their structure at the end of the principal analysis — wave 3 ended on July 23 — but the occasional ambiguities of the chart allow some room for wave 3 having ended overnight.

Bottom line: We don’t know for certain what we’re seeing, but presumably we shall know soon. A resumption of the rise would give credence to the wave 5 scenario. I declne below the 5th-wave starting point, 6391.50, would suggest that wave 5 has not yet began.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/2/2025, 6391.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, from 6391.50 into the 6410s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The low at the opening of the session was the end of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on July 23 and the beginning of the uptrending 5th wave. The smaller 5th wave is the final subwave of a 5th wave one degree larger, which in turn is the final subwave within a still larger 3rd wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell slightly overnight after peaking at the session close on July 23.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline as a 4th-wave downward correction with a larger uptrendng 5th wave. Wave 4 will soon be followed the 5th and final subwave within wave 5.

The end of the smaller 5th wave will also be the end of the larger 5th wave, and of a still larger 3rd wave, which will be followed by a relatively large 4th-wave downward correction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

[Updated to reflect the end of wave 4{-16) and the start of wave 5{-16} during the session.]

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/24/2025, 6391.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 24, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour befoe the closing bell.The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, so far reaching a peak of 6393.75.

Elliott Wave Theory: The uptrending 5th wave that began on July 22 continues.

How high can wave 5 go? If typical, it’s likely to end between 6421 and 6435. It’s an estimate, not precision forecast, like most such things in Elliiott Wave Theory.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 6340s to the 6370s.

What does it mean? The overnight high so far has been 6376.75. In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, that analysis provides a degree of verification that the 4th-wave downward correction ended on July 22 and wave 5 began its rise.

That verification price is significant because it was the peak of rising wave B within wave 4.

On the other hand, upon reaching that peak the price fell slightly, giving the analysis a degree of ambiguity. If the price moves firmly above 6374, that will give the wave 5 scenario greater clarity.

In any case, wave 5 has already carried the price to a higher high, and more upside lies ahead. When wave 5 is complete, it will also mark the end of the parent 3rd wave and the beginning of a larger 4th wave, which will give the futures a degree of downside that we haven’t seen of late.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/22/2025, 6318.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After falling into the 6310s early in the session, the S&P 500 futures rose, reaching into the 6350s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Once bitten twice shy.

For this morning’s analysis, I saw at the futures’ rise and concluded that wave 4 was over and wave 5 had begun, a nicely done piece of work if I do say so myself. It lasted until the opening bell when, as the echo faded, the price reversed and fell sharply.

I quickly had to redo the analysis and managed to file on time, although it was one of the shorter analyses I’ve ever done.

And now it’s late in the session, and the futures have reversed from their fall and begun to rise again.

The rise is now tracing it’s 5th subwave. So what’s going on?

I’ve changed the chart — yet again to show that wave 5 has begun from the session low. I think wave 5 is the more likely bet, but I fully realize that wave 4 continues is also a significan likelihood.

How each is confirmed:

• If the price rises to 6374 and above, then the wave 5 scenario gains credence.
• If the price drops to 6334 and lower, then the wave 4 scenario gains credence.

So, this afternoon’s choice: Principal analysis: Wave 5. Alternative analysis: Wave 4.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the overnight low, 6335.25, so far reaching into the 6340s and then dropped at the opening bell.

What does it mean? The downtrending 4th-wave correction continues and is nearing its end.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 15-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/22/2025, 6318.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.