3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures largely spent the session moving lower, with periodic upward reversals that didn’t last.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave 4(-7}, a rising upward correction, continues on its course. The final subwave within wave 4 will be a rising wave. How do we know when a rising wave mean the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5{-7}? The expanding triangle pattern we’re seeing brings with it a lack of clarity. A drop below the previous low in the pattern, 6805 set on December 12, will suggest that a change may in fact be happening, but it’s not teverified. The price would need to not only move below that level but would stay below it. If it’s a true beginning of wave 5, it will show more clarity and energy than we’re seeing so far.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the 6870s to the 6890s when the Employment Situation Report for November was released, an hour before the opening bell. The price rapidly retraced down to the 6860s.

What does it mean? I have reworked the Elliott Wave Theory analysis analysis to fix some problems that had crept in going back several months. The main change for the present is that the corrective wave that began on November 21 is now labelled rising wave 4{-7}. The earlier analyses had labeled wave 5{-7} as still being underway.

Declining wave 5{-7}, which will begin at the moment wave 4{-7} ends, most likely will carry the price down to below 6525 — the starting point of wave 4{-7} — and possible a significant distance below that level.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 16, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a new high point today, the peak so far of the uptrend that began on November 21.

Elliott Wave Theory: The peak is part of a 4th-wave upward correction, wave 4{-10}, within wave A{-9], the latter being the firsr subwave of wave 2{-8}..

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures closed last week at 6833.50 and resumed trading at 6890, a 56.50 openng gap. As the opening bell approached, the price exceeded 6900.

What does it mean? The pattern is an expanding triangle, a less common form in Elliott Wave Theory analysis wherein each high moves higher than the one before the each low moves lower. Altogether there are five subwaves.

The boundaries of the triangle are marked on the chart with red dashed lines.

The smaller waves are trending upward, but the larger degrees — the ones that really move the market — are downtrending.

The triangle is wave 4{-10}, a relatively small wave that is a subwave of wave A{-9}, the initial subwave of wave 2{-8}, which began on November 21 from 6525.

Wave 2 is the second of five subwaves within downtrending wave 5{-7}, the final subwave of wave 5{-6}, also downtrending, and encompassing those waves are a series of 1st waves, each larger than the one before it, to wave 1{-2}. They all began on October 8 in a major reversal from 6812.25.

When wave 2{-8} is complete, downtrending wave 3{-8} will begin, carrying the down to the low 6500s and most likely lower.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 15, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 a.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After pushing above the upper boundary of the expanding triangle earlier today, the S&P 500 futures reversed hard and drove down to the triangle’s lower boundary (roughly the 6830s). From there it bounced, attempting to retrace back toward the interior of the pattern.

Elliott Wave Theory: The downward corrective triangle continues, labeled, in red on the chart, as wave 4{-10} within wave A{-9} within the larger wave 2{-8}. Wave 2{-8} is the larger wave in the current sequence: an upward correction that began on November 21.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new high on Thursday, reaching 6928.75, and the dropping into the 6890s and 6980s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis shows the movement to be consistent with an expanding corrective triangle, whose components are marked on the chart in red.

The triangle is a subwave — wave 4{-10} — within wave A{-9}, itself the first subwave within a larger triangle, wave 2{-8}, an upward correction. Wave 2 invalidated the more common Elliott Wave Theory patterns by moving beyond the start of wave 1, and therefore had to be one of the less common types.

I’m confident in my considering wave 2{-8} as being a triangle, less so in the case of wave 4{-10}.

Wave 2{-8} ruled out the more common corrective templates because price action pushed beyond a boundary that those patterns normally respect—specifically, it moved beyond the start of wave 1{-8}. That behavior forced a relabel to a less common corrective structure. In my count, the best fit is a triangle variant (an expanding triangle), which also explains the repeated head-fakes: higher highs followed by sharp pullbacks, followed by still higher highs.

Internally, wave A has been through a series of higher highs followed by declines that were followed by still higher highs. The expanding triangle pattern is an explanation for what other wise would be a series of head fakes.

What comes next? As a triangle, wave 2{-8} will have five subwaves, rather than the three subwaves more common in corrections. It is still in its first subwave, wave A{-9}, which along with its parent wave began on November 21.

Long story short, wave 2 will be with us for awhile as it complets wave A and works through wave B through E, each wave covering more ground than the one before.

When wave 2 is finally complete, wave 3{-8} will follow, a downtrending that most likely will fall below, perhaps by a significant distance, the end point of downtrending wave 1{-8}, at 6525 on November 21.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-10} (none), 12/5/2025, 6905 (down–expanding triangle)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 12, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 once again began what looked like a new downtrending wave, only to reverse and climb, coming close to a higher high and turning the apparent downtrend into yet another head fake.

Elliott wave A{-9} continues; on that point we can be confident. Its parent, rising corrective wave 2{-8}, is also underway and is taking the form of a Triangle.

So far, so good. But why all of the head fakery?

One Elliott Wave pattern that naturally produces this kind of behaviour within wave A{-9} is the expanding triangle: a net sideways movement in which each new high exceeds the last and each new low undercuts the prior low. That is precisely the pattern that appears on the chart.

I have marked this candidate triangle with wave numbers in red and drawn one line connecting the highs and another connecting the lows. Under this analysis, which remains provisional, the expanding triangle is wave 4{-10} within wave A{-9}.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. As the closing bell approached on Wednesday, the S&P 500 E-mini futures pushed to a new high at 6908, extending the rise that began on November 21. Price then dropped hard to 6817.50 before reversing and reclaiming roughly half of that decline.

What does it mean? The fresh high was important for Elliott Wave analysis because it confirmed that rising wave A{-9} is still in force, a conclusion that had been in doubt for several days.

But the strength of the subsequent reversal immediately threw that verdict back into question. Did wave A{-9} actually end at 6908, with wave B{-9} now starting down? Or was the drop just a headfake within an ongoing A{-9} advance?

The structure one degree higher adds another layer. Waves A{-9} and B{-9} are components of wave 2{-8}, an upward correction that is taking the shape of a sideways triangle. Most corrections have three subwaves; triangles have five, labeled A through E.

We cannot yet know with certainty whether wave A{-9} is complete. What we can do is use prior pausing points as signals and frame what prices would confirm each scenario. For that, I turned to the ChatGPT AI for an outside read.

The AI writes:

“Wednesday’s push to 6908 likely completed wave A{-9} of the developing 2{-8} triangle, but the follow-through will tell us which wave is really in force. A decisive break below 6817.50 in regular trading hours, especially if it carries down toward the 6760–6720 area, would confirm that wave B{-9} is unfolding. By contrast, a sustained move back above 6908 would argue that A{-9} is still extending, or that a new C{-9} leg higher is already in progress. Until one of those signals appears, I’m treating the current swings between 6817.50 and 6908 as an unresolved topping consolidation.”

My working rule is not to change chart labels until a new wave is confirmed. Wave B{-9} has not yet met that test. On the chart, therefore, wave A{-9} remains the active label within wave 2{-8}, pending clearer evidence to the contrary.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-10} (none), 12/5/2025, 6905 (down–expanding triangle)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 11, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures whipsawed higher after the Federal Open Market Committee cut the target range by ¼ point to 3.50%–3.75%. The first reaction spike topped at 6861.75 and faded quickly, but the tone shifted during Powell’s news coferende: about five minutes in, the futures pushed higher again, tagging 6886.75, holding in that area, and then rising further, to above 6906.75, which is $1.75 above the prior peak within the rise that began on November 21, 6905.

Elliott Wave Theory: That reclaim-and-hold above the prior resistance shelf near 6885 strengthens the case that Wave A{-9} is still underway (or extending), so I’ve kept the existing A{-9} labeling on the chart. A reversal back under the earlier breakout area would be the first warning that the move was only a headline pop rather than a sustained continuation.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures once again traded narrowly overnight, tracing a net sideways pattern. And once again the movement raised the question, has the rise that began on November 21 refersed, taking the S&P 500 in a new direction?

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the rise as being wave A{-9} within an upward correction, wave 2{-8}. If wave rising A{-9} truly ended at the most recent peak in the rise, 6906 on December 5, then falling wave B{-9} has begun.

The ChatGPT AI’s estimate of whether the resistance levels and what answer they imply to the question.

“Overnight the S&P 500 futures are still coiling in a tight pre-FOMC box (~6859–6834), which keeps the central question alive: was 6906 (12/5) the end of Wave A{-9}, meaning Wave B{-9} has begun? As long as price fails to reclaim 6859 with follow-through, the simplest read is that B{-9} is already in progress as a corrective/consolidative phase. To weaken that call, bulls need acceptance above ~6885 (nearest resistance shelf) and then a return to 6905–6906; a clean breakout above 6906 would argue that the correction is ending and the larger upward structure is reasserting itself. Until then, this looks like ‘marking time’ into the 2:00 p.m. ET FOMC catalyst rather than a resolved trend.”

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 10, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3.30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to 6872.75 and then retreated to the 6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The futures continue to occupy the middle ground, neither clearly rising as wave A{-9} nor fallng as wave B{-9}, leaving the nature of the movements swimming in a pool of ambiguity.

Analyzing the signals that might bring clarity, the AI ChatGPT writes: “Today’s tape still argues for transition, not trend. ES bounced from roughly 6845 to about 6873, but then slipped back to the 6855 decision line—classic retest behavior that doesn’t yet confirm a new down leg. For B{-9} to look ‘real,’ ES would need to fail at/under 6855 and then accept below 6845, with the next major confirmation coming on a decisive break of the ~6823 shelf (and less ambiguity below 6791.25). If, instead, ES reclaims 6855 and holds, then pushes back above ~6873, the market keeps the door open to A{-9} resuming and another attempt toward 6905.”

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded narrowly overnight, producing a net decline from the 6860s to the 6840s. The rise that began on November 21 peaked on December 5 at 6905 and then reversed. However, there is as yet no confirmation that the reversal is a true change in the market direction. Confirmation would come from a decisive break below the ~6823 shelf, followed by a rebound that fails to reclaim the 6855–6885 zone.

What does it mean? The rise from November 21, view lens of Elliott Wave Theory, is risng wave A{-9}, the first subwave within an upward correction, wave 2{-8}. The question posed by the chart today, once again, is whether wave A{-9} ended at the peak on December 5, which would mean that B{-9] has begun its decline, or whether wave A{-9} is still underway.

Until there is confirmation of a true directional change, I shall continue to label the ongoing wave as wave A[-9}.

As it turns out, today’s decline increases the odds that wave A{-9} is over. I rely on the AI to handle this complex analysis, and turn to ChatGPT for a report:

---

ChatGPT writes:

On this chart, it still isn’t proven that B{-9} is underway, but the market is behaving more like the early innings of B than like a clean continuation of A.

First—tiny typo check: I’m assuming your overnight range was 6860s–6840s (the chart is in the 6800s, with last around 6849.5).

What the tape is saying right now

• The 12/5 high at 6905 remains the obvious candidate for the end of A{-9}.
• Monday’s decline broke the 6845–6855 “line of defense” and has not reclaimed it with authority.
• Overnight is narrow + beneath that broken area → that’s consistent with a market that’s digesting a break (often how a B-leg starts), but it hasn’t yet taken out the next support.

The two scenarios (and what would confirm each)

1) B{-9} has begun (more likely if support gives way)

• What you’d expect next: a break of the ~6823 shelf, then a failed bounce that can’t get back above 6855–6885.
• “Not proven” trigger: a decisive move under 6791.25 (the 11/20 pivot). That’s when it starts to look less like chop and more like a real down leg.

2) A{-9} is still underway (still possible, but it needs a reclaim)

• What you’d want to see: hold 6823, then reclaim 6855, then push back into 6885–6895.
• Confirmation: take out 6905 and hold above it (acceptance, not just a tag).

A quick proportional clue (why B isn’t “confirmed” yet)

A{-9} ran roughly 6525 → 6905 (~380 points). A typical B retrace often reaches 6760 (38%), 6715 (50%), or 6670 (62%). We’re only ~56 points off the top so far—so either:

• This is still a corrective pause inside wave A
• Or, wave B is just starting

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 9, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reversed early in the session, falling from the 6890s so far into the 6830s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The brisk fall again potentially means wave B{-9} within rising correction wave 2{-9} raises the question of the legitimacy of the new wave. As often as not, I’ve found, many “new” waves turns= out to be old-wave headfakes.

This time, however, there may be less ambiguity. ChatGPT writes: “This drop makes the question sharper because it punched through the first “line of defense” (the 6845–6855 area) and is now forcing the market to prove that the late-November advance is more than a one-way squeeze. On the chart, the 12/5 high at 6905 still reads as a plausible termination point for wave A{-9} within 2{-8}, and today’s slide to roughly 6842 is exactly what a trader sees at the start of a wave-B style retracement—unless it quickly stabilizes and reasserts the prior uptrend. From here, the ‘Is this reversal real?’ filter is straightforward: if price holds the ~6823 shelf, rebounds, and can reclaim 6855 without rolling over again, then today’s decline can still be treated as a corrective dip inside an ongoing reversal attempt. But if ES breaks 6823 with momentum and then any bounce fails below 6855–6885, the odds shift toward ‘A is done and B is underway,’ with 6791.25 becoming the next key ‘not proven’ trigger.”

[Suggested reading: The essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?”, with the subtitle, “How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed.”]

There’s not enough evidence for action yet. Among other things, I’m looking for a bear call options vertical bear call spread position, in line with the downtrending nature of the parent waves several degrees higher. The daily Ehlers Stochastic on SPY, the ETF that, like the futures, is based on the S&P 500 index, is in overbought territory — a plus — but it hasn’t broken below the 1.0 bar at the top, which signals that the downward run truly has begin.

Looming over it all is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to change interest rates. Their statement will be released Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time, with a news conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for a half an hour later. Potential, either will be a complicating factor in the market’s behavior and therefore in the timing of the waves.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures .traded narrowly when trading resumed, opening in the 6870s and reaching the 6890s as the session’s opening bell drew near. The price remained below the high so far, 6906, in the rise that began on November 21.

What does it mean? That rise, wave A{-9} on the chart, is the initial subwave in the upward correction, wave 2{-8}. The chart today presents Elliott Wave Theory with the same question it has faced every day since late November: Is this reversal real? Every new high, followed by a reversal, can be interpreted as as the end of rising wave A and the beginning of falling wave B. And yet, the present rise, it has never turned out that way.

There are methods that, when applied, reduce the rate of false conclusions in analyzing the chart. This morning, shortly before publishing this analysis, Trader’s Notebook, I posted an essay on that subject that I highly recommend to traders trying to make sense charts.

The essay is titled, “Is This Reversal Real?”, with the subtitle, “How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed.”

I asked the author of the essay to apply the methods to the chart. It’s answer:

“On this 40-minute ES chart, the “Is this reversal real?” question basically comes down to whether the 11/21 washout low at 6525 has truly flipped the market into a durable higher-high / higher-low sequence—or whether the surge is just a sharp countertrend rally that’s about to fade. The rally leg into 6905 (12/5) is the kind of thrust you want to see at the start of a reversal, but the fact that we’re not printing a fresh high yet today suggests we’re still in a prove-it phase: either a normal pause (think wave-2/B style consolidation after the first reversal push) or the early warning of rejection. For the reversal to look “real,” any dip should stay corrective and defend the prior structure (first line around the 6845–6855 area, then the ~6823 shelf); a slip back under the 11/20 6791.25 pivot would be the cleanest “not proven” signal. Conversely, a push through 6905 followed by acceptance (holding above it, not just tagging it) would be the simplest confirmation that buyers still control the turn.”

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 8, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

How to Tell (Without Getting Whipsawed)

By ChatGPT (OpenAI), prompted by Tim Bovee
December 8, 2025

---

Memo from the Prompter

Early this year, I brought ChatGPT into my trading workflow. I had experimented with earlier AI versions, but for my use-case they weren’t practical: the setup and friction outweighed the benefit.

That changed with newer models that can work with current market context more effectively. For a trader dealing with price changes updated by the minute, that shift was meaningful. Time matters. Being able to run multiple forms of analysis quickly—without cutting corners—matters.

In this partnership, I contribute decades of trading context and judgment; the AI does the grunt work: scanning many candidates fast, surfacing patterns and risk points, and presenting structured decision rules. I still make the decisions.

Recent PrivateTrader analyses have been driven by one recurring question from real, still-unfolding market action: Has one wave ended and the next begun? Elliott Wave labeling can be powerful, but in real-time it can also be ambiguous. So the practical question becomes: When is a reversal “verified” enough to act on—and when is it still just a story?

The essay below was prompted by those events, but the confirmation rules it describes are universal: they’re the same discipline you can apply across markets, timeframes, and wave degrees.

---

Main Text (ChatGPT)

Every trader learns this the hard way: the market loves to act like it’s reversing… right up until it doesn’t.

You see a fresh high, then a sharp pullback. You label it “the turn.” Then price snaps back up, makes another high, and your narrative takes a hit.

This is not a personal failure. It’s a feature of markets: crowds anchor to obvious levels—and when everyone sees the same “top” or “bottom,” the path of maximum frustration is usually to break that expectation first.

So how do we distinguish a real reversal from a fake-out?

My answer: don’t use one signal. Use a small set of independent confirmations—each one imperfect alone, but much more reliable together.

---

1) Break + Close beyond a meaningful level (not a vibe)

What it is:
Pick a level that reflects actual structure—usually the most recent swing low (for a top) or swing high (for a bottom)—and require a close beyond it, not just an intraday tag.

Why it’s better:
Intraday spikes are cheap. Closes are expensive. A close forces the market to hold its decision long enough that late buyers/sellers can’t instantly erase it.

How you back it up (logic):
If the reversal is real, it shouldn’t need to hide behind wicks. A real shift in control shows up in settlement behavior, not just momentary emotion.

How this fits a real, ongoing market example:
A rule like “I stay with the current count until we close beyond the prior key swing level (e.g., the prior session’s low)” is clean, tradable, and independently verifiable by readers. The exact number changes; the rule doesn’t.

---

2) Acceptance (the “next session stays beyond it / fails to reclaim” rule)

What it is:
After the break + close, require acceptance: price either remains on the new side of the level, or it tries to return and fails.

Why it’s better:
This is the simplest antidote to the market’s #1 trick: the one-bar breakdown that reverses immediately.

Operational version (the clean 2-bullet rule):

• Break + close beyond the pivotal level.
• Next session: the bounce attempt fails to reclaim that level (rejection), or price stays cleanly on the new side.

That “fail to reclaim” phrasing reduces whipsaws and reads well to non-quants.

---

3) Retest-and-fail (the highest-signal “simple” pattern)

What it is:
After a structural break, markets often retest the broken level from the other side. In a real reversal, that retest fails.

Why it’s better:
It gives you a clear structure: support becomes resistance (or resistance becomes support). It also pins risk and invalidation to a nearby price—high utility, low drama.

How you back it up (logic):
A meaningful level is meaningful because participants defend it. If price can’t reclaim it during a retest, you’ve just watched the defense switch sides.

Reader-friendly phrasing:
“I treat a reversal as real when the market breaks a floor, then proves the old floor is now a ceiling.”

---

4) Momentum confirmation (RSI/MACD/Ehlers as supporting evidence)

What it is:
Use momentum tools to support the structural evidence—never to replace it.

Common supporting signs at a top:

• RSI breaking down through a midline (often ~50)
• MACD rolling over and failing on rebounds
• Ehlers (or similar) showing a downshift that persists

Why it’s better (when used correctly):
Momentum can confirm that the market is losing “push,” but it can also whipsaw in chop. That’s why it’s supporting evidence, not the trigger.

Rule of thumb:
Momentum should weaken on rallies (in a topping process) and strengthen on selloffs. If it doesn’t, be cautious.

---

5) Volatility regime shift (optional, but powerful)

What it is:
Look for the tape to change character: range expansion, harsher pullbacks, and “urgency” replacing drift.

Why it’s better:
Many fake reversals occur in low-vol chop. Real reversals often come with a repricing of risk, which tends to show up as volatility picking up, not fading.

How you back it up (logic):
A true change in control usually forces participants to adjust quickly. That shows up as faster moves and wider ranges.

---

6) Elliott Wave–specific: don’t “call B” without a structural break

What it is:
In corrective advances, false peaks are common. The discipline is: do not switch to “B” just because it feels topped.

Why it’s better:
Elliott Wave is at its best when it stays anchored to objective levels. Without that anchor, wave labeling becomes story-time.

How you back it up (logic):
Corrections are messy by nature: overlaps, truncations, diagonals, and “one more push” are normal. So you demand proof: break + close + acceptance (and ideally retest-and-fail).

---

Define Verification and Invalidation (before you relabel)

If you publish wave calls in real time, this tiny discipline upgrade helps readers (and you) stay honest:

• Invalidation level: the price that makes the prior count definitely wrong (not “less likely”—wrong).
• Verification level: the price/structure sequence that makes the new count definitely right (or right enough to treat as the working count).

This prevents “narrative creep,” where labeling changes without price actually doing anything decisive.

---

The “Best Practical Stack” (my recommended default)

If I had to choose the most reliable approach that’s still simple enough to publish daily, it would be this three-step stack:

1. Break + close beyond the key swing level
2. Acceptance (next session stays beyond it or fails to reclaim)
3. Retest-and-fail (support→resistance flip)

Why this stack is best:

• It’s mechanical (readers can follow)
• It reduces false positives (filters one-bar fakes)
• It’s time-efficient (fits real life constraints)
• It doesn’t require forecasting—only reacting to proof

That’s why the rule is boring on purpose: I stick with the current wave until the market proves me wrong. In real time, “proof” means structure first, then acceptance. Anything less is often just the market doing what it does best: offering an attractive story before it offers evidence.

---

Sidebar: Reversal Confirmation Checklist (Elliotician Edition)

Goal: Don’t switch from A to B (or from trend to reversal) until the market proves it.

1. Define the pivotal level (structure): Use the most recent meaningful swing low/high.
2. Break + close (not just a wick): Close beyond the level, not merely tag it intraday.
3. Acceptance (next session test): Next day stays beyond it or the bounce fails to reclaim it.
4. Retest-and-fail (best simple proof): Broken level acts as the opposite: support → resistance (or resistance → support).
5. Momentum agrees (supporting / optional): RSI/MACD/Ehlers confirm the shift. Momentum alone is not a reversal call.
6. Only then relabel the wave: If 2–4 are true (and 5 supports), you can switch the working count with confidence.

Default discipline: If the checklist isn’t satisfied, treat it as noise, chop, or a false peak—and keep the prior wave count.

---

Disclaimer (Publishing Rights & Market Advice)

Publishing / rights. Portions of this article were generated with the assistance of an AI language model based on prompts and editorial direction from the publisher. The publisher is solely responsible for what is published and for ensuring publication complies with the rules of the hosting platform and all applicable laws. This content does not grant any special publishing rights, licenses, or endorsements. Do not include third-party copyrighted text, charts, or proprietary material unless you have permission to use it.

Not financial, legal, or tax advice. This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or derivative. Trading involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance (or historical pattern behavior) does not guarantee future results. Consider consulting a licensed financial professional and/or qualified legal or tax advisor before acting.

No guarantee / accuracy. Market analysis is uncertain and can be wrong. This material may contain errors or omissions; use it at your own discretion and risk.

3:30 p,m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P500 futures moved its high point for the day slightly higher, to 6905, and then fell back into the 6860s.

Elliott Wave Theory. That higher high was yet another confirmation that wave A{-9}, the first subwave within an upward correction, wave 2{-8}, is underway, and the decline that follow was the wave A jokester chuckling, “but maybe wave B{-9} has begun.”

My strategy as an Elliotician will be to stick with wave A until the price closes below the lowest low for the day — 6856.75 so far today. If that happens, and the next trading day the price remains below that level, then I may consider switching the analysis back to the wave B scenario.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 6886.25 overnight, a new high in the rise that began on November 21. The price then fell to the 6850s and rose again to 6886.25.

What does it mean? The higher high, when viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, means that wave A{-9} within a 2nd upwave upward correction, wave 2{-8}, is underway and has been underway since November 21. It’s an ongoing series of false peaks that have kept the chart ambiguous since December began, with repeated movements that appeared to be the end of wave A and the beginning of decllinging wave B, but really weren’t.

As with the previous false peaks, the price immediately declined, falling to 6858.75.

Has wave A ended and wave B begun? Not confirmed. I’ll treat B{-9} as underway only after acceptance below 6823.14 (and ideally below 6792.53) with follow-through; any break above 6886.25 keeps the “A{-9} still extending” case in play.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 5, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell, the S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed from the pre-session peak at 6884.75 and fell to a session low so far of 6836.25.

Elliott Wave Theory: At the risk of hearing voices muttering, “Yeah, heard that before,” I’m now labeling the 6884.75 high as the end of rising wave A{-9}, with declining wave B{-9} underway. On the chart, the signature is a swift decline followed by messy, overlapping price action—a pattern that is often consistent with early B-wave behavior.

Waves are driven by the opinions behind trades, whether those opinions belong to individual humans or to algorithms programmed by humans. In that sense, wave structure is an aggregate of moment-by-moment “opinion polls.” And today’s polling suggests uncertainty: is wave A{-9} ready to extend to new highs, or has it played out, making room for wave B{-9}?

The honest answer is: we don’t know yet. But we do have guidelines.

At this stage, the decline is still a shallow retracement of the full advance that began on November 21. Confirmation will therefore be behavioral, not philosophical: repeated failed bounces below the 6880–6885 area and follow-through below 6836.25 would strengthen the B-wave interpretation. Conversely, a sustained move above 6884.75 would erase the B-wave scenario in favor of a continuation of wave A{-9}.

11:05 a.m. New York time

Ambiguities resolved. The problem with wave A{-9} within wave 2{-8} is that it overlaps the start of wave 1{-8}, the first subwave of wave 5{-7}. That breaks a rule of normal corrections under Elliott Wave Theory. The ambiguity lay in trying to explain how that is possible.

At this point I find it useful to keep in mind that the Elliott Wave Theory analysis is a map, and the underlying reality is the chart. Whatever rules the map ought to adhere to, the underlying reality stands, and it’s up to the map designer (that’s me) to match the reality.

Here’s what I’ve concluded.

The wave labeling in the 9:35 a.m. post stands: The decline into November 21 (6525) is wave 1{-8} following the end of wave 4{-7} on November 20, and the advance since then is wave 2{-8}. Within that correction, wave A{-9} is underway.

Wave 2’s rise beyond the starting point of wave 1 can be mapped as one of the variants of Elliiott Wave Theory, by treating wave 2{-8} as a Diagonal-variant correction. Unlike the more common three-wave corrections (Zigzag, Flat), the Diagonal with its five subwaves can move beyond the start of the preceding 5th wave.

There’s no need to redo the labeling. It does require some changes in the way we think about this part of the chart. A{-9} is unfolding as a five-subwave advance; if its internal wave 4 overlaps wave 1 and the advance forms a wedge, it would qualify as a leading diagonal (“diagonal triangle” in the book Elliott Wave Principle by A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter).

The remaining open question is not whether a triangle is possible, but whether the expanding triangle subtype will be confirmed. That requires the next swings to clearly widen (push beyond prior swing extremes); until then, “triangle candidate” is the most precise description.

And as I was working through the analysis, the S&P 500 futures peaked at 6880.75, and plunged to 6844.50, perhaps marking the end of rising wave A{-9} and the start of falling wave B{-9}. So it goes. In Elliott Wave Theory, the map is always changing as the waves march on.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. After a quiet overnight rotation, the S&P 500 E-mini futures put in a tight range and then popped higher on the morning economic release. On the 5-minute chart, the session’s working range has been roughly 6854.25–6880.75, with the late move breaking above the prior chop.

What does it mean? Today’s key catalyst was Initial Jobless Claims, which came in meaningfully lower than expected (Reuters: 191,000 vs. 220,000 forecast, lowest since Sept. 2022), reinforcing the idea that layoffs remain historically low. Reuters

There is a great deal of ambiguity in the chart, and my project today will be puzzling it out. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this still looks like a corrective environment rather than an impulse trend.

An alternative interpretation is that the decline into 11/21 (6525) is best treated as a higher-degree corrective leg (an A-wave) and the rise since then as a B-wave within an expanded flat. In expanded flats, B-waves can retrace deeply and even exceed prior extremes—so the “overlap” behavior is not only allowed, it’s typical.

Near-term expectation: choppy, overlapping swings remain likely, and today’s spike can be viewed as part of the ongoing B-wave advance rather than proof that a new impulse is underway.

Key levels (intraday):

• Resistance / breakout reference: ~6881 (session high area)
• Support to watch: ~6854 (session low area)

I’ve left the wave labels as they were for now: Wave A{-9} within wave 2{-8} is underway. That may change with the afternoon analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • B{-9} (none), 12/4/2025, 6884.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 4, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com