The charting platform for these analyses is Charles Schwab’s ThinkOrSwim, the most extensive charting service I used. And this morning, it doesn’t work. Just an error message on the desktop.

Fortunately, there is a browser version of ThinkOrSwim. Sadly, it is extremely limited. So give a time limitations, I have jerry-rigged a solution: I’ll use the browser chart for what’s happening now and a copy of yesterday’s full-featured chart to provide context.

The chart covers th year so far, with daily bars.

A good solution? Hardly. But the clock is ticking, so, Onward!

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose when trading resumed overnight, a continuation of a rise that began Friday, February 28, as the closing bell approached.

Friday’s bar is a green bar immediately to the left of the rightmost bar, also green, which is this morning’s opening bar.

Friday’s low was 5848, and the close was 5958. When trading resumed overnight, it opened at 5967.50 and then worked its way higher, so far having peaked at 6000.50.

What does it mean? 

Elliott Wave Theory sees the chart this way: The present rise lies at the heart what we knew at Friday’s close. The price was bottom fishing, and any lower low could be the end of one wave and the start of the next.

In the discussion that follows, I’ll use the labeling that appears on yesterday’s chart, in which each wave has a wave number, followed by an indicator of its distance from Intermediate degree in the Elliott Wave system. Intermediate degree began in 2018 as wave 5{0}, and wave 4{-5}, the downtrending correction, is five degrees lower than wave 5{0}.

The decline that reached Friday’s low is labeled wave C{-6}, the final subwave within the larger wave B{-5}, the middle wave 4{-5}, a downward correction that began on February 19 from 6166.50. Wave C and its parent, wave 4 may have ended at that point, 5848, and the following wave 5{-6} may have begun.

Unless it hasn’t ended. the price hasn’t risen very far and could easily whipsaw back to a lower low, wave 6 within wave 4.

Today’s Chart

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., dailybars, with volume]

Yesterday’s Chart

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2/28/2025, 2-hour bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives?  I’m staying with the wave 4 continues scenario. I want to see a further rise before I’m persuaded that wave 5 has begun

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Alternative Analysis #1, Wave 4 Scenario:

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} continues.

Alternative Analysis #2, Wave 5 Scenario

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} has ended.
• Rising wave 5{-5} has begun.

And there’s another.

Alternative Analysis #3, Wave X Scenario

• Wave 4{-5} is taking a comppund form and the connector subwave, wave X{-6}, has begun.
• A compound form means that the correction has two or three corrective patterns, each connected with the next by an X wave

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)

Or alternatively,

• 5{-5} Micro, 2/27/2025, 5855.50 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 2/27/2025, 5855.50 (up)

And yet another

• Wave X{-6}, 2//27/2025, 5855.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

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Trader’s Notebook

February 27, 2025Leave a comment

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory: The price remains within the range of the 4th subwave within the previous rising 3rd wave. This morning’s Alternation Analysis was correct and has been promoted to the new Principal Analysis on the chart. The final subwave, wave C, of the present 4th-wave corrective pattern continues.We are at one of those bottom-fishing moments where any lower low can be the end of the present wave. Or not.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly overnight, from the 5960s to the 6010s.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory, the rise from February 25 is a small countertrend correction that began from 5924.

Beyond that, the chart lacks clarity, a not unusual occurrence in Elliott Wave Theory. Are we in wave 4 or has wave 5 begun? Let’s try to puzzle it out.

A 4th wave tends to end within the range of the 4th subwave within the preceding 3rd-wave. In this case, that 4th wave occurred from November 11 to November 19, 2024, carrying the pricer from 6043.50 to 5855, a span of 188.5. I’ve marked the price on the chart in red.

The low point of the present 4th wave has been 5924 so far, placing it within the range of the 4th subwave of prior 3rd wave. Since this 4th wave is within the 4th of 3rd, and since a straightward labeling of the subwave leading to the February 25 low at wave 5, then wave C has ended.

Going forward, two possibilities: Either the 4th wave is taking a simple corrective pattern and therefore ended on February 25, or the 4th is taking a compound pattern, with two or three corrective patterns.

If it’s simple, the rise since February 25 is an early stage of wave 5. If it’s compound, then the rise is connector wave, an X wave, separating the first corrective pattern from the future second corrective pattern.

I’m choosing the simple corrective pattern for the Principal Analysis, reserving the compound pattern for the Alternative Analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What is the alternative? Potentially, a compound correction lies ahead. See Alternative Analyss #2, below.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis:

Demoted to Alternative Analysis during the session.

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} has ended.
• Rising wave 5{-5} has begun.

Alternative Analysis #1

Promoted to Principal Analysis during the session

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} continues

Alternative Analysis #2

• Wave 4{-5} is taking a compund form and the connector subwave, wave X{-6}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. This list has been revised to reflect the revised Principal Analysis.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 27, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a slightly lower low during the session, 5848, and then withdrew to above 5900.

This morning’s ambiguity continues into the afternoon. Elliott Wave Theory: It’s a 5th wave that’s underway or a 4th wave, and its not certain which view is correct.

The session low, 5848, took the price below the lower bounday that is the ending target for the 4th wave: The range of the 4th subwave within the rising 3rd wave the preceded the present 4th-wave correction.

Based on more than 90 yers of experience with Elliott Wave analysis, the expectation would be that wave 4 has ended and wave 5 has begun. But that’s based on a tendency, not a rule. So I’m applying some skepticism to the matter.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell early in the overnight session, to 5858.50, and then rose slightly above 5900.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis is precisely where it was in yesterday’s analysis: The decline appears to be the end of the final subwave, wave C, within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on December 16, 2024. That turned out to be an unfortunate conclusion, as the price flipped back into a decline, forcing a retraction of the morning analysis.

This time around, there is an even greater reason to conclude that wave C has ended.

A 4th wave correction tends to end within the 4th subwave of the preceding 3rd wave. The low point of that subwave was 5855, reached on November 19, 2024. The low point overnighj was 5858.50.

As the old acknowledgement of remorse goes, “Once burned, twice shy.” Having been burned yesterday, I’m relutant to call wave 4 complete until I’ve seen more of a rise. In the meantime, I’m sticking within an irritating pair of conclsions: Either falling wave 4 in in its last legs, or rising wave 5 has begun.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What is the alternative? So there is no Principal Analysis at this point; only two alternatives.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Alternative Analysis #1, Wave 4 Scenario:

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} continues.

Alternative Analysis #2, Wave 5 Scenario

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} has ended.
• Rising wave 5{-5} has begun.

And there’s another.

Alternative Analysis #3, Wave X Scenario

• Wave 4{-5} is taking a comppund form and the connector subwave, wave X{-6}, has begun.
• A compound form means that the correction has two or three corrective patterns, each connected with the next by an X wave

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)

Or alternatively,

• 5{-5} Micro, 2/27/2025, 5855.50 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 2/27/2025, 5855.50 (up)

And yet another

• Wave X{-6}, 2//27/2025, 5855.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 28, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory: The price remains within the range of the 4th subwave within the previous rising 3rd wave. This morning’s Alternation Analysis was correct and has been promoted to the new Principal Analysis on the chart. The final subwave, wave C, of the present 4th-wave corrective pattern continues.We are at one of those bottom-fishing moments where any lower low can be the end of the present wave. Or not.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly overnight, from the 5960s to the 6010s.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory, the rise from February 25 is a small countertrend correction that began from 5924.

Beyond that, the chart lacks clarity, a not unusual occurrence in Elliott Wave Theory. Are we in wave 4 or has wave 5 begun? Let’s try to puzzle it out.

A 4th wave tends to end within the range of the 4th subwave within the preceding 3rd-wave. In this case, that 4th wave occurred from November 11 to November 19, 2024, carrying the pricer from 6043.50 to 5855, a span of 188.5. I’ve marked the price on the chart in red.

The low point of the present 4th wave has been 5924 so far, placing it within the range of the 4th subwave of prior 3rd wave. Since this 4th wave is within the 4th of 3rd, and since a straightward labeling of the subwave leading to the February 25 low at wave 5, then wave C has ended.

Going forward, two possibilities: Either the 4th wave is taking a simple corrective pattern and therefore ended on February 25, or the 4th is taking a compound pattern, with two or three corrective patterns.

If it’s simple, the rise since February 25 is an early stage of wave 5. If it’s compound, then the rise is connector wave, an X wave, separating the first corrective pattern from the future second corrective pattern.

I’m choosing the simple corrective pattern for the Principal Analysis, reserving the compound pattern for the Alternative Analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What is the alternative? Potentially, a compound correction lies ahead. See Alternative Analyss #2, below.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis:

Demoted to Alternative Analysis during the session.

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} has ended.
• Rising wave 5{-5} has begun.

Alternative Analysis #1

Promoted to Principal Analysis during the session

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} continues

Alternative Analysis #2

• Wave 4{-5} is taking a compund form and the connector subwave, wave X{-6}, has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. This list has been revised to reflect the revised Principal Analysis.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 27, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked at 6023.75 early in the session and then declined into the 5940s. Elliott Wave Theory: The wave 3 vs. wave 5 ambiguity continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the 5570s to slightly above 6000 overnight.

What does it mean? I’ve moved the chart in for a closer view of Elliott Wave Theory waves B and C within the 4th-wave downward correction that began December 16.

How far along is wave C? At first glance, it is in its final subwave, wave 5{-7} on the chart. But that seems rather shallow, and it’s possible count it as being in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.

It’s impossible to know for certain, and so I did a “this or that” label — wave 3 or wave 5.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What is another alternative? It’s possible that what I’ve labeled as a simple correction is in fact a compound correction. A simple correction — a Flat or a Zigzag — has a single three-wave corrective pattern within it. A compound correction has two or three corrective patterns, each separated from the next by an X-wave, a connector that sets the stage for the next corrective pattern.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} is underway.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. This list has been revised to reflect the revised Principal Analysis.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 26, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 5920s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The final subwave, wave C, within a 4th-wave downward correction that began on December 16, 2024, continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded within a narrow range overnight, from the 6010s down to the 5970s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory interprets this movement as a pause in a downtrending final subwave, wave C, within a 4th-wave downward correction that began on December 16, 2024, from 6163.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What is the alternative? It’s possible that what I’ve labeled as a simple correction is in fact a compound correction. A simple correction — a Flat or a Zigzag — has a single three-wave corrective pattern within it. A compound correction has two or three corrective patterns, each separated from the next by an X-wave, a connector that sets the stage for the next corrective pattern.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave C{-6} within wave 4{-5} is underway.

Alternative Analysis:

• The same as the Principal analysis, except wave C{-6} is the final subwave of the second corrective pattern in a compound correction.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. This list has been revised to reflect the revised Principal Analysis.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 1/13/2025, 5809 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.60 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Based on what we’ve seen so far, I’ve updated the chart with the beginnings of a revised analysis. This is a tentative analysis — call it a Principal Analysis Light.

The basis of it is that a larger 4th-wave downward correction that began on December 16, 2024 from 6163.75. It is labeled wave 4{-5} on the chart. The February 19 peak was slightly above that level, and that works, of the corrective pattern has taken the form of a Flat, where Wave A has three subwaves, B has three, and C has five (3-3-5).

The revised chart:

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

1:05 p.m. New York time

The rest of the story. In this discussion I’ll use the wave labels as they appear on the chart. Each wave has a number, followed by a subscript in curly brackets that indicates the wave’s position in the fractal structure of the chart. The subscript is the number of levels between the wave and the Intermediate degree. The ongoing wave of Intermediate degree is wave 5{0}, which began on February 11, 2016.

At this point, there are several possible ways to view the Elliott Wave Theory chart.

The price continued to fall early in the session, eventually reaching 5994.50. That means wave 4{-9} overlapped the other corrective wave in an impulse pattern, wave 2{-7}. That’s not supposed to happen. So, another reworking of the map so that it matches the terrain.

The 6020.75 level, the end of wave 1{-7}, broke the bullish wave count that was this morning’s principal analysis.

The next significant level is 5936.50, the February 2 start of rising wave 3{-6}. If the price rebounds and moves above that level, then it’s possible that we’re looking at a Triangle correction of some sort.

If the price breaks and stays below 5936.50, then the wave 4{-5} correction never ended. That correction began on December 16, 2024.

I’ve made the minimal fix, removing the wave 5{-9} degree and restoring wave 4{-9}. For the rest, we’ll have to wait and see.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked its way higher after trading resumed overnight, reaching into the 6060s as it recovered a bit more from the decline that began on February 19.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory labels the decline as a low-degree 4th wave downward correction. Its downward journey has three subwaves, meaning that it was the corrective structure called a Flat.

By that count, the 4th wave has ended and rising wave 5 has begun and most likely will carry the price back up into the 6160s and perhaps much higher.

That’s the principal analysis. However, there is another scenario…

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 1:05 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What is the alternative? The 4th-wave downward correction may have ended at the February 20 low, 6102.75, as the principal analysis has it. Or that might have only been the end of the first subwave, wave A, within the correction. I’ve chosen the 5th-wave scenario as my principal analysis, and the ongoing 4th wave as my alternative analysis.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart. See the new chart, above, in the 3:30 p.m. post, along with explanation. The following analyses waves are no longer valid but they are being retained today to allow for comparison.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave 4{-9}, a downward correction, ended at the February 21 low, and rising wave 5{-9} now underway. Both waves are subwaves of wave 1{-8}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 3{-7}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-10}, the first subwave within wave 4{-9}, ended on February 20 and rising wave B{-10} has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. This list has been revised to reflect the revised Principal Analysis.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 1/13/2025, 5809 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.60 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 24, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall at the opening bell and has continued to fall during the session, so far reaching 6024.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline is a 4th-wave downward correction began on February 19 from 6166.50. Most 4th waves that I’ve analyzed have tended to be more moderate, retracing on a third or so of the preceding 3rd wave.

This 4th wave has moved beyond the starting point of the 3rd wave and is coming close to dropping below the starting point of the preceding 1st wave. That breaks a rule of Elliott Wave Theory and requires a reanalysis, possibly of everything since the February 2 low.

But not yet. The 4th wave hasn’t broken the rule yet and may reverse to the upside before it does so.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 6127.25 overnight and then rose into the 6140s as the opening bell approached. As the bell sounded, the price drop sharply into the 6120s

What does it mean? Now underway in terms of Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th-wave downward correction, a subwave of a 1st wave that began on February 12, which in turn is a subwave of a still larger 3rd wave that also began on that date.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The 4th-wave downward correction may have ended at the February 20 low, 6102.75, or that might have only been the end of the first subwave, wave A, within the correction. I’ve chosen the wave A scenario as my principal analysis, and the completed 4th wave as my alternative analysis.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses as they appear on the chart.

Principal Analysis:

• Wave 4{-9}, a downward correction now underway, is a subwave of wave 1{-8}, which is turn is a subwave of wave 3{-7}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave 4{-9} ended on February 20 and rising wave 5{-9} has begun.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 1/13/2025, 5809 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 2/2/2025, 5936.50 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/12/2025, 6120.75 (up)
• 1{-8} (unnamed), 2/12/2025, 6120.75 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)

Correction. The 10-year chart published on February 20 listed the {-1} degree wave now underway as wave 5{-1}. It is wave 3{-1}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 21, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 6102.75 half an hour into the session, and then rose back into the 6130s.

I’ve added a more detailed Elliott Wave Theory mark-up on the chart focusing on price movements from December 16, 2024. This morning I included three charts, from a 10-year monstrosity down to one covering the past few months. It’s that third chart, the one furthest down, that has been updated.

Bottom line: A low-degree 4th-wave downward correction is underway, within an uptrending 1st wave that began on February 12. That 1st wave is a subwave of a rising 3rd wave that began on February 2.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell slightly overnight, from the 6150s to the 6140s.

What does it mean? A rule of Elliott Wave Theory was violated during yesterday’s session: A 4th-wave upward correction rose higher than the December 16, 2024 peak, which by the analysis up to yesterday had marked the end of a large number of 5th waves.

The beauty of Elliott Wave Theory is that when the count no longer matches the reality of the chart — when the wave labels are wrong — the analyst knows it immediately. And since the chart is always right, the analysis must be changed.

In looking at the new reality, the new terrain, it seemed to me that there were a couple of options. The bullish option would see the December 16, 2024 high as being a step within an ongoing rise. To fix that would mean going back to 2020 and modifying the wave count. An alternative bearish option would have been to retain the December peak as the end of a major rise, and to postulate a complex corrective form that would explain away the rule violation.

The bullish option seemed more straightforward, and as I recounted waves from a few years ago, it became clear that the bullish revision would be in accord with the Rules of Elliott. And that bullish revision is what we see today.

Could it be wrong? Maybe. No Elliott Wave Theory analysis is 100% certain. If it turns out to not match the reality of the chart, we’ll all know it, and for my analysis, I’ll fix it

The following series of charts begins with a big view of the S&P 500 index from the 2020s onward, then a closer view of the S&P 500 futures, and then a still closer view, also of the futures.

[S&P 500 index 2/19/2025 close, monthly bars]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures, 2/19/2024 close, 12-hour bars, with volume]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? This reanalysis is still a work in progress, and will be stretching into the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if I discovered changes that need to be made.

What does Elliott wave theory say?  The waves that underlie the analyses will be available later There’s much revision to done.:

Long-term Waves.

Not yet available. Revision underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 20, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

5:30 p.m. New York time

Sneak Preview. I’ve been working for hours to put together the new analysis. The S&P 500 futures breaking an Elliott Wave Theory rule, which scrapped the prior analysis, turns out to have implications stretching back several years.

Details when I post at 6:35 a.m. New York time tomorrow. Meanwhile, a sneak preview of the new futures chart.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 5:30 p.m., 12-hour bars, with volume]

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the opening bell. Perhaps a better section title would be…

The end of the chart as we know it. The S&P 500 futures have reached a high so far during the session of 6166.50.

Here’s a preliminary assessment:

• Under the formerly valid chart, breaking past the 5th wave endpoint is a violation of the rules of Elliott Wave Theory.
• Three possibilities: The wave count was incorrect, the supposed top was not the final high, or a more complex corrective structure is unfolding.

I’ve updated the chart, with a big label saying it is no longer the principal analysis. Look for a new analysis in tomorrow morning’s post.

This morning’s analysis is no longer valid. The wave lists are no longer valid. And the “What are the alternatives” section now has a world-class alternative that will be implemented.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, from the 6150s to the 6130s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the fall as a subwave correction within the rising 3rd wave that began on February 12.

Wave 3, when complete, will be followed by a 4th-wave downward correction and then a rising 5th wave, which will bring to an end the final subwave, wave C, of a larger 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13.

A downtrending 5th wave will follow, potentially carrying the price below 5800, and possibly significantly lower.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 105-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? None visible at present. As always, they will arise.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave 3{-18}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• C{-17} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.50 (up)
• 3{-18} (unnamed), 2/12/2025, 6020.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 19, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 fell during the session, so far reaching a bit below 6120.

The decline at this point appears to be a subwave within rising wave 3, which began on February 12 from 6020.75. Wave 3 is in turn a subwave of a rising C wave, the final wave of a 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 13.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose after trading resumed overnight, from 6137 into the 6150s. Minutes before the opening bell, the price dropped sharply into the 6130s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th-wave upward correction continues, as has been the case since it began on January 13. Within that rise, however, things have changed.

A revision of the chart.

Regular readers will recall that a week ago, in the January 11 edition of Trader’s Notebook, I spotted an ambiguity in the count. I described it this way: “Should the 1st-wave endpoint on February 2 instead be labeled as the parent C-wave endpoint, bringing to an end the B wave that is one degree higher in the fractal chain of the chart and the beginning of a rising C wave.”

Subsequent price movements left the ambiguity unresolved. However, the labeling increasingly put the chart out of balance, with waves of the same degree becoming disproportional to each other.

Over the weekend, I dived into the chart, and decided it was time to change the labelling. The alternative analysis had become more likely than the principal analysis. Today’s chart is the product of that renumbering.

The wave labelling system

In this discussion I’ll refer to waves the way they are labelled on the chart: A wave number followed by a subscript in curly brackets show how many degrees from Intermediate Degree within the fractal structure of the chart that particular wave stands. For example, the upward correction is wave 4{-16}, which is 16 degrees lower than Intermediate. A wave larger than Intermediate will have a positive number in the brackets.

The new analysis

The present Intermediate wave is rising wave 5{0}. It began on December 26, 2018 from 2346.58 on the S&P 500 futures. All of the changes are at a relatively small level, within rising wave 4{-16}.

Here’s what has changed. The locations and dates are the endpoints of the waves.

• Wave 1{-19} to wave C{-18}, on February 2 at 5948.
• That change means that the parent wave, falling wave B{-17}, ended at that point and rising wave C{-17} began.
• The subwaves within the rise that began on February 2 have been raised by one degree, from {-19} to {-18}.

That means that the waves now underway are, from smaller to larger, rising wave 3{-18} within rising wave C{-17} within rising wave 4{-16}.

These changes restore proportionality to the chart and highlight the upward movement as the key directional characteristic at present.

What next? When wave C{-17} is complete, it will also be the end of the upward correction, wave 4{-16}, and the beginning of falling wave 5{-16}. The parent wave, falling wave 3{-15}, began on December 26, 2024, from 6107.50.

Fifth waves generally fall below the end of the preceding 3rd wave — wave 3{-16} at this point. If that’s the case here, then we can expect wave 5{-16} to drop below 5809.25. Some 5th waves are truncated and remain above the end of the preceding 3rd wave.

However far it drops, the end of wave 5{-16} will be the end of wave 3{-15} and the beginning of a large upward correction, wave 4{-15}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 105-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The changes have wiped the slate clean of ambiguities for the moment. They will develop, without a doubt, with the passage of time.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial subwave, which is uptrending wave A{-8}, if wave 4{-7} is a Flat structure, with three subwaves, or wave 1{-8} if it is a Zigzag structure, with five subwaves. (I’ll assume Flat as the list continues, since that’s more common within 4th waves)
• Wave A{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, as are waves 1{-10}, 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 1{-14}, an upward correction and is in its first subwave, wave 3{-15}.
• Wave 3{-15} is in its second subwave, rising wave 4{-16}, an upward correction
• Wave 4{-16} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-17}, which is in its middle subwave, rising wave 3{-18}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave. (Updated with today’s reanalysis.)

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-14} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (down)
• 4{-16} (unnamed), 1/13/2025, 5809.25 (up)
• C{-17} (unnamed), 2/7/2025, 5935.50 (up)
• 3{-18} (unnamed), 2/12/2025, 6020.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 18, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com