6/19 – 9:10 p.m. New York time
I have updated the KR analysis with results.
Author: Tim Bovee
The Week Ahead: Home sales
Two housing reports lead the week: Existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Friday, each at 10 a.m. New York time
Live: Friday, June 16, 2017
FNSR Analysis
Finisar Corp. (FNSR)
Update 6/19/2017: FNSR gapped sharply to the upside the trading session after earnings were published and then retraced a significant portion of that rise the next day. Rather than risk a move that would make the position unprofitable, I exited at 19.9% of maximum potential profit, which is less than my 25% target.
Shares showed a net rise of 7.5% over five days, or a +545% annual rate. The options position produced a 24.9% yield on debit for a +1,812% annual rate.
FNSR publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 36 days hence, on July 21.
Implied volatility stands at 65%, which is 5.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
FNSR’s IV stands in the 92nd percentile of its annual range and the 82nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Thursday, June 15, 2017
KRE Analysis
SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
Update 6/16/2017: KRE traded sideways during its short lifespan, and I exited at 4.9% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 0.5% over two days, or a -83% annual rate. The options position produced a 5.2% yield on debit for a +946% annual rate.
KRE stands at a high level of implied volatility compared to its most recent trend and so is worth looking at more closely as a potential trade.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on June 23.
Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
KRE’s IV stands in the 32nd percentile of its annual range and the 54th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
KR Analysis
Kroger Co. (KR)
Update 6/19/2017: KR fell sharply after earnings were published, with two large opening gaps in a row, the first the day before Amazon.com announced its purchase of Whole Foods Market and the second day after the announcement. As the grocery sector staggered with shock, rather than prolong the pain in the face of small odds against a return to profitability, I exited weeks before expiration.
Shares declined by 25.3% over five days, or a -1,848 annual rate. The options position produced a 50.8% loss on debit for a -3,705% annual rate.
KR publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 37 days hence, on June 23.
Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
KR’s IV stands in the peak of its annual range and the 71st percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Live: Wednesday, June 14, 2017
QQQ Analysis
PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
Update 6/23/2017: QQQ declined slightly after entry and then returned to near the entry point. I rolled the position twice, each time gaining a bit more credit in order to make a profitable entrance, at 14.8% of maximum potential profit.
Shares rose by 0.9% over 10 days, or a +31% annual rate. The options positions produced a 17.35 yield on debit for a +633% annual rate.
QQQ at Monday’s close stood at a high level of implied volatility compared to its most recent trend. However, that metric has declined in trading on Tuesday, making QQQ less attractive. Even so, the IV multiple of the VIX still qualifies it for a closer look.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 23.
Implied volatility stands at 15%, which is 1.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
QQQ’s IV stands in the 34th percentile of its annual range and the 47th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
XLK Analysis
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
XLK stands at a high level of implied volatility compared to its most recent trend and so is worth looking at more closely as a potential trade.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on June 23.
Implied volatility stands at 15%, which is 1.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
XLK’s IV stands in the 44th percentile of its annual range and the 50th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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