TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP)

Update 8/9/2017: TRIP gapped up by $4 immediately after earnings were published, fell by $8 and then recovered by $4, ending up about where it had closed the day before earnings. I exited a bit below target, at $2.48, or 21.3% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of -8.25 over the day I held the position, or a -2,978% annual rate. The options position produced a 27.0% yield on debit for a +9,861% annual rate.

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TRIP publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 55%, which is 5.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TRIP’s IV stands in the 96th percentile of its annual range and the 93rd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL)

Update 8/14/2017: FOSL shares fell about $4.50 after reporting earnings at a $0.61 loss per share, below the Street expectation of a $0.39 loss. Shares traded sideways for two sessions, and the fell an additional 50 cents, then traded sideways for an additional two sessions. I exited with shares at $8.31.

Shares declined by 32.5% over my six-day holding period, or a -1,977% annual rate. The options position produced a -49.9% loss on debit for a -3,033% annual rate.

The Zacks Investment Research earnings surprise predictor showed a 200% negative earnings surprise coming. Had I used the ESP as a screen, I would have passed on the trade.

Had I exited the first session after earnings were published, the cost would have been a $3.23 debit, or $0.32 below the $3.55 I paid to get out. It was the decline in the third session after publication that made holding a losing tactic.

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FOSL publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 99%, which is 9.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FOSL’s IV stands at the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.

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Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ)

Update 8/14/2017: HTZ missed earnings estimate by a large margin. The Street expected a 23 cent loss per share; it got a $1.90 loss. The stock price rose (yes, “rose” is correct) by nearly $3 in the session after publication, and continued to rise steadily for the three ensuing days. I exited with shares at $19.50.

Shares rose by 33.1% over my six-day holding period, or a +2,014% annual rate. The options position produced a -41.5% loss on debit for a -2,525% annual rate.

Zacks Investment Research gave HTZ a 1.32% earnings surprise predictor score, probably not enough to warn me off of the trade.

Had I exited in the first trading session after earnings were published, I would have paid a $3.40 premium to exit. As it is, the price of getting out was $4.12, a significant worsening of the loss. In hindsight, an immediate exit was the best strategy.

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HTZ publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 102%, which is 10.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

HTZ’s IV stands in the 91st percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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8/8 – 3:25 a.m. New York time

The outcomes are unchanged from my mid-session post: Three new positions, HTZ, FOSL and TRIP, and one exit, THC.

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CBS Corp. (CBS)

Update 8/9/2017: CBS whipsawed across a $4 span in two days after earnings were published. I exited at 25.7% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 0.8% over my two-day holding period, or a +138% annual rate. The options position produced a 34.5% yield on debit for a +6,296% annual rate.

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CBS publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CBS’s IV stands in the 70th percentile of its annual range and the 80th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (KORS)

Update 8/14/2017: KORS shares by $8 after earnings came in at $0.80 per share, above the $0.63 Street number. The stock traded sideways for four subsequent days.

Shares rose by 21.3% over my seven-day holding period, or a +1,112% annual rate. The options position produced a -50.1% loss on debit for a -2,611% annual rate.

I would have paid a debit of  $5.23 had I exited the position the session after earnings were published. Waiting cost me an additional $0.84 as I exited for a $6.07 debit. In this case the waiting tactic did not mitigate the loss.

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KORS publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.6 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

KORS’ IV stands in the 77th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR)

Update 8/8/2017: CAR zig-zagged within a $4 span for two days after earnings were published, finally settling into a sideways pattern below the pre-earnings close. I exited at 25.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline in my holding period of -3.4% over two days, or a -617% annual rate. The options position produced a 35.05 yield on debit for a +6,301% annual rate.

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CAR publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 68%, which is 6.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CAR’s IV stands in the 88th percentile of its annual range and the 84th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC)

Update 8/8/2017: THC fell by $2 after earnings were published, recovered about half in early trading and then fell back. I exited at 18% of maximum potential profit, less than my 25% target, in order to clear room in the account for another trade.

Shares declined by 6.4% over my one-day holding period, or a -2,339.5% annual rate. Tye options position produced a 22.05 yield on debit for a +8,035% annual rate.

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THC publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 76%, which is 7.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

THC’s IV stands in the 97th percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. N.V.  (CBI)

Update 8/14/2017: CBI fell by $6 after coming in with earnings at $3.02 per share, well below the $0.30 Street consensus. It rose by $2 over the subsequent two trading days, when I exited at $3.35 for a loss, with shares at $12.45. 

Shares declined by a net $25.1% during my seven-day holding period, or a -1,306% annual rate. The options position produced a -35.9% loss on debit for a -1,868% annual rate.

Had I exited the day after earnings were published, I would have gotten out with the stock at the same level as today, and with the option going for a debit of about $3.68. Tactically, waiting until closer to expiration cut $0.33 from my loss, thanks to the workings of  time decay.

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CBI publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Aug. 18.

Implied volatility stands at 94%, which is 9.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CBI’s IV stands in the the peak of both its annual range and its most recent broad movement.

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8/7 – 2:40 p.m. New York time

I entered five new positions today: CAR, CBS, KORS, CBI and THC. No exits.

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