Author: Tim Bovee

AXP Analysis

Tim Bovee3 Comments

American Express Co. (AXP)

Update 1/20/2017: AXP shares declined after coming in under the Street estimate of earnings per shares by 7%. Implied volatility also dropped sharply, moving my position to my profit point, which is 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 0.9% over one day, or a -325% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.2% yield on debit for a +760% annual rate.

AXP publishes earnings today after the closing  bell.

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IBM Analysis

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International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)

Update 2/7/2017: IBM goes ex-dividend on Feb. 8 and I exited for a loss to avoid the chance of assignment. The share price rose sharply after earnings were published, pushing the price beyond the profitable zone for my iron fly options spreads.

Shares rose by 7.1% over 19 days, or a +136% annual rate. The options position produced a 27.1% loss on debit for a -520% annual rate.

 

IBM publishes earnings today after the closing bell.

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Thursday’s Agenda

Tim Bovee

I shall be analyzing AXP and IBM for trades timed to coincide with earnings announcements.

GE, which was on the Prospects list, continues to have overly low implied volatility, at the 11th percentile of its annual range and the 15th percentile of its most recent broad movement, and I shall give it no further consideration.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 19, 2017

 

UNP Analysis

Tim Bovee3 Comments

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)

Update 2/8/2017: UNP gapped up after earnings were published and rose a bit more. It then declined several days later, remaining slightly above the boundary of profitability. I exited nine days before the final trading day for the options used to construct the position,

Shares rose by 3.7% over 21 days, or a 64% annual rate. The options position produced a 20.0% loss on debit for a -348% annual rate.

 

UNP publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

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