I shall analyze FB today as a potential earnings play.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 1, 2017
Author: Tim Bovee
Wednesday’s Prospects
I have three prospective trades for Wednesday that qualify on grounds of liquidity: FB, MRK and PM. All are potential earnings plays.
I intend to analyze FB.
MRK and PM have overly low implied volatility, both in comparison with the annual range and the most recent broad movement. I shall check them again after the opening bell, but without a significant rise in implied volatility, neither will qualify for a further look.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 31, 2017
Tuesday’s Outcomes
MO Analysis
Altria Group Inc. (MO)
Update 3/3/2017: MO rose continually after earnings were published, quickly moving above the zone of profitability. As options expiration and an ex-dividend date both approached, I exited for a loss.
Shares rose by 5.9% over 30 days, or a 71% annual rate. The options position produced a 34.0% loss on debit for a -414% annual rate.
MO publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
AAPL Analysis
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Update Feb. 8, 2017: AAPL gapped upward after earnings were published, putting it beyond the profit zone of my position. It continued to rise, more moderately, thereafter. I exited the position to avoid the likelihood of assignment when shares went ex-dividend on Feb. 9.
Shares rose by 8.9% over eight days, or a +408% annual rate. The options position produced a 35.5% loss on debit for a -1,620% annual rate.
AAPL publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.
Tuesday’s Agenda
I shall dive into AAPL and MO as potential earnings plays.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 31, 2017
Tuesday’s Prospects
I shall be looking at AAPL and MO as potential earnings plays on Tuesday.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 30, 2017
Monday’s Outcomes
I entered positions on PFE and XOM timed to coincide with earnings announcements. XOM was not initially on my agenda today because of low implied volatility relative to IV range, but it has been a day of rising volatility in the markets, and XOM move up to meet my standards.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 30, 2017
XOM Analysis
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Update 2/6/2017: XOM’s price fell after earnings missed the Street estimate by a wide margin. The stock goes ex-dividend on Feb. 7, and I exited at 21.4% of the maximum potential gain to avoid the risk of early assignment.
XOM shares declined by 1.7% over seven days, or a -87% annual rate. The options positions produced a 21.4% yield on debit for a +1,417% annual rate.
XOM publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
PFE Analysis
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Update 1/31/2017: Prices rose then dropped back after earnings wee published. Implied volatility fell sharply. I chose to exit PFE because it goes ex-dividend on Feb. 1, and i’m wanting to avoid the likelihood of early assignment.
Shares rose by 0.8% over one day, or a +281% annual rate. The options position produced a 6.6% yield on debit for a +2,413% annual rate.
PFE publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
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