U.S. stock and option markets will be closed on Thursday to honor President Jimmy Carter, who held office from 1977 to 1981 and who died on December 29 at the age of 100. Bond markets will close at 2 p.m., and futures markets will trade as usual. I shall post my analyses at of the S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m. and at 3:30 p.m. New York time.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session back into the 5970s. The ambiguous Elliott Wave Theory pattern from this morning continues, within the wave B subwave within a declining 4th-wave correction\. The structure of the B wave suggests that either the B wave is taking a less common form, or the wave movement has been ambiguous enough to produce an error in the count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures drifted slightly higher overnight, to 5975, and then fell sharply into the 5970s. The price rose again after the ADP Employment Report, a sneak preview of the government’s Employment situation report on Friday, found that fewer jobs had been added than expected.

What does it mean? In line with the Elliott Wave Theory pattern that has been developing since January 2, the decline is a continuation of the middle subwave, wave B, within a 4th-wave upward correction. That correction, in turn, is part of a downtrending 1st wave that began on December 16.

But there’s a problem. B waves in such corrections have three subwaves.

What are the alternatives? So what’s going on here? Some possibilities:

Diagonal Wave (Leading or Ending):

• The five subwaves could represent a diagonal structure. If this is an ending diagonal, it could suggest a termination of the correction at this wave degree.
• If it is a leading diagonal, it might imply that the B wave is morphing into something more complex, such as a larger wave C{-15} starting soon.

Part of a Flat Correction:

• If Wave B{-15} is within a flat correction, it might develop into an irregular or expanded flat where wave B exceeds the start of wave A and wave C will move in the opposite direction.
• In this case, the five-wave pattern would still fit within the corrective context but may reflect a “running” or “expanded” flat.

Complex Correction:

• Wave B{-15} may belong to a complex corrective wave structure such as a combination (e.g., W-X-Y) or a triangle, which could sometimes give the illusion of a five-wave pattern.

And there may be some other possibilities.

As is so often the case in Elliott Wave Analysis, time will tell. In the meantime, I’ve retained the labeling but have added a question mark after the wave B{-15} label.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 4{-14} is presently underway and is rising.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 4[-14} (unnamed), 1/2/2025, 5874.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 8, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to decline during the session, reaching into the 5950s.

Declining wave B within the 4th-wave upward correction continues. The correction began on January 2 and the B wave, on January 6.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6007 into the 6040s as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? The rise is a subwave, wave B, within the larger wave that is part of a 4th-wave upward correction. Rising wave A, the initial subwave of the upward correction, reached in the 6060s.

Declining wave B, the middle subwave down into the low 6000s, where it has fluctuated within a narrow range, a movement consistent with the three subwaves within wave B.

Next up, rising wave C, which will complete the three-wave corrective pattern within wave 4.

A falling wave 5 will follow, the final subwave within the parent wave of all of this trading, declining wave 1, part of a series of nested 1st waves that began on December 16, 2024 and six degrees in fractal structure of the chart. One degree higher is a much larger declining 4th wave underway.

Thanks the long store. The short story? Think down.

[For some unknown reason I had trouble posting the chart. Turns out it was a cable issue. I’ve found a workaround, and here’s the chart, bright and shiny and 15-minutes late.]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives?

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 4{-14} is presently underway and is in a declining subwave, wave B{-15}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 4[-14} (unnamed), 1/2/2025, 5874.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked, at 6068.25, in the mid-morning of the session and then began to decline, so reaching the 6020s.

Elliott Wave Theory: I’ve designated today’s peak as the end of rising wave A within the 4th-wave upward correction that began on January 22, and the beginning of declining wave B, the middle of three subwaves. A final subwave, wave C, will follow wave B and typically will reach beyond the wave B peak.

11:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 5980.75 and continued to rise for first two hours of the session, with only a single slight dip to the downside. So far the price has reached into the 6060s as the rise continues.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th wave, an upward correction, began on January 2 from 5874.75 and is in its first subwave, wave A. The preceding 2nd wave began on December 20, 2024 and ended on December 26, making the length of the wave six days. Wave 4 is presently in its fourth day.

A 4th wave tends to be of the Flat pattern, with wave A having three subwaves. The other common pattern, often seen in 2nd waves, has five subwaves within wave A.

In this 4th wave, Wave A is in its 5th subwave, making it a Zigzag.

What are the alternatives? It’s possible to count the rise from December 20 to December 26 as the A wave within wave 2, rather than as wave 2 in its entirety. That would make the present rise from January 2 as the third and final subwave within wave 2.

If that were the case, the placement of the waves within the factal structure of the chart, would require a major revision.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 4{-14} is presently underway and is rising.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 4[-14} (unnamed), 1/2/2025, 5874.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 6, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose during the session, reaching into the 5990s.

The extent of the rise since January 2 suggests that a 4th-wave upward correction has begun. It seems slightly odd to have the impulse wave declining and the corrective wave rising, but that’s where we have been since the peak on December 16, which marked the end of a very deep series of 5th waves ending a large 3rd wave and beginning a large 4th-wave downward correction that contains a large number of impulse subwaves, each nested within the next larger wave.

How does that work? Remember that the A wave of a correction contains five or three subwaves, depending upon whether the structure is a Zigzag or a Flat. If a Zigzag, then those A wave contains a series of impulse waves, a five-wave structure trending upward, and each of those subwaves contains smaller subwave structure — five waves, three of which contain even smaller subwave structures.

Bottom line: It will take some time for us all, myself included, to become accustomed to the reality of this major-downturn.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways overnight, for the most part fluctuating between the 5920s and the 5950s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees yesterday’s switch from a rise to a sideways trend as being the start a corrective subwave as the downtrending 3rd wave that began on December 26, 2024 has reached its end.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are ambiguities within the 1st-wave’s subwaves but the larger wave count is clear.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 4{-14} is presently underway and is rising

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 4[-14} (unnamed), 1/2/2024, 5874.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 5870s. Elliott Wave Theory: The price remained above the end of the preceding downtrending 1st wave on December 20 — just barely. If the price falls below that endpoint, 5866, it will confirm this morning’s principal analysis, that sees the 3rd-wave downtrend as having begun December 26 2024.

If the price stays above that level, then the alternative analysis may well stand a chance; the 2nd-wave upward correction may still be underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently after trading resumed overnight, from the 5910s to the 5990s and the reversed.

What does it mean? It depends. For my principal analysis using Elliott Wave Theory, I’ve labeled the rising 2nd-wave correction since the the December 16, 2024 peak as having ended on December 26. The declne that followed is the middle subwave — wave 3 — within a larger declining 1st wave. There is an alternative. See “What are the alternatives” below.

Whichever alternatve we choose, what is clear s that the December 16 peak marked a significant turning point covering seven degrees within the fractal structure of the chart, marking the end of wave 3 of the Minuscule degree, to use the traditional naming structure and the beginning of wave 4.

What are the alternatives? It is possible to see the December 26 reversal as the end of wave A within the 2nd-wave upward correction and the decline as wave B, the middle wave of the correction. A decline below the end of the preceding 1st wave would knock out the alternative analysis and confirm the principal analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 3{-14} is presently underway and is declining

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 2{-14} is presently underway and is in its decling wave B{-15}

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 3[-14} (unnamed), 12/26/2024, 5866 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 2, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

The New Year’s Holiday is on Wednesday, January 1. All financial markets will be closed on on that day as 2025 starts its run. All market schedules will return to normal on Thursday, January 2.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 5910s. Elliott Wave Theory: The downtrending 3rd wave that began on December 26 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5940s to the 5980s.

What does it mean? I’ve reworked my principal analysis somewhat. Under the new analysis, Elliott Wave Theory sees the rise a part of a downtrending 3rd wave that began on December 26. It is in turn is happening within a nested series of downtrending impulse waves, all of them 1st waves, within a very large 4th-wave downward correction that began on December 16.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? Not at present. Ambiguities will develop.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 3{-14} is presently underway and is declining

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 3[-14} (unnamed), 12/26/2024, 5866 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 31, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached 5918.25 early in the session and the reversed, rising back into the 5970s.

Elliott Wave Theory can interpret the chart in two ways: Either the 4th-wave correction is a Zigzag and session low point is the end of the third of five subwaves within the correction’s wave A. Or the correction is a Flat and the low is the end of the A wave’s final subwave. In the latter case, the A wave has ended and wave B is underway.

I’ve chosen to use the second scenario — wave A is over and wave B has begun. But I could just as easily gone with the first one — wave A continues. There’s no way to know for sure from this chart. If the price moves below the session low, 5918.85, then wave A continues. If instead it moves higher, then wave B has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures drifted lower after trading resumed overnight, beginning a sharp decline two hours before the opening bell.

What does it mean? Seen through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, the sharp decline is the next-to-the-last subwave — wave 4 –within the final subwave — wave C — within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on December 20.

The rising 2nd wave is in turn a subwave of a 1st waves that began on December 16, the smallest of a nested series of five 1st waves within a falling A wave, the initial subwave within a 4th-wave downward correction. It’s part of a significant decline that began with the completion on December 16 of a nested series of 5th waves within a rising 3rd wave that began on August 7 from 5182.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The decline resolved the ambiguity with which we closed the week. The December 26 peak was the end of wave 3 within wave C.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 2{-14} appears to be underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-15}
• Wave C-15) is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-16}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 2[-14} (unnamed), 12/20/2024, 5866 (up)
• C{-15} (unnamed), 12/23/2024, 5965 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 30, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

The market schedules return to normal. The session closes at 3:30 p.m. New York time.

3:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, into the 5980s so far. The decline is part of the 4th-wave downward correction within the final subwave — wave C — within the 2nd-wave upward correction that that began on December 20.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 6090s to 6050 overnight.

What does it mean? In the terminology of Elliott Wave Theory, the decline is part of the wave 4 within wave C, the final subwave within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on December 20.

Wave 5, the final subwave within wave C, will follow, rising to complete the final wave within the correction’s three-wave structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The continued rise and then downward turn left the internal structure of wave C, continuing yesterday’s ambiguity: Was the December 26 peak the end of wave 5 or wave 3. I chose wave 3 as my principal analysis.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 2{-14} appears to be underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-15}
• Wave C-15) is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-16}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 2[-14} (unnamed), 12/20/2024, 5866 (up)
• C{-15} (unnamed), 12/23/2024, 5965 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 27, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

U.S. Markets will close early today, at 1 p.m. New York time.

12:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 6107.50, a few points above the morning high. The C-wave within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on December 20 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? When trading resumed overnight after the Christmas holiday, the S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked early, at 6105, and then drifted lower into the 6060s as the opening bell approached..

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory question of the day is whether that peak was the end of the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on December 20. The correction is in its final subwave — wave C — which in turn will have five subwaves. Is the peak the the end of wave 3 or of wave 5?

This is one of those subjective points that make Elliott Wave Theory difficult at times. Wave 1 within wave C is either very small, in the 5th-wave scenario, or it is the longest of the five subwaves, in the 3rd-wave scenario. Under the Theory’s rules, a 3rd wave can never be the longest of the five-wave struture.

My inclination is to be go with the 3rd-wave scenario, but it is far from being a certainty, with wave C in its middle subwave, wave 3.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? See the ambiguity described above in the “What does it mean?” section.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 2{-14} appears to be underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-15}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 2[-14} (unnamed), 12/20/2024, 5866 (up)
• C{-15} (unnamed), 12/23/2024, 5965 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 26, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

The markets close early today. The U.S. stock markets will close at 1 p.m. New York time. The bond markets will close an hour later. All markets will be closed on Wednesday for the Christmas holiday and will resume regular hours on Thursday. The Trader’s Notebook afternoon analysis will be posted at 12:30 p.m. New York time today.

12:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose further during the truncated session, reaching into the 6090s

Elliott Wave Theory: The final wave within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on December 20 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures slowly stair-stepped its way higher overnight, from a low of 6030 shortly after yesterday’s closing bell to the 6050s as today’s opening bell approached.

What does it mean?

In Elliott Wave Theory, the final subwave — wave C — within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on December 20 continues. The correction will be followed by a downtrending 3rd wave, typically the strongest and longest of a five-wave trend.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? No ambiguities yet. They will come.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 4{-7} is in its initial; subwave, uptrending wave A{-8}.
• Wave 1{-8} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 1{-10} is in its initial subwave, as are waves 1{-11}, 1{-12}, and 1{-13}.
• Wave 2{-14} appears to be underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-15}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 4{-7} Minuscule, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• A{-8} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-9} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-10} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-12} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 1{-13} (unnamed), 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• 2[-14} (unnamed), 12/20/2024, 5866 (up)
• C{-15} (unnamed), 12/23/2024, 5965 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 24, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.