3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Having fallen to the 5880s at the opening bell, the S&P 500 futures rose gradually, reaching above 5900 as the closing bell approached.

Nothing in the session changed the Elliott Wave analysis published in the morning. The uptrending 5th wave that began on August 18 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways overnight, remaining within a range from the 5930s to 5950s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the overnight movement within the early stages of the uptrending 5th wave that began on November 19. It is part of a series of 5th waves of increasing magnitude within the fractal structure of the chart.

Wave labels on the chart have a number or letter designator for each wave, and a subscript in curly brackets shows the wave’s position in the fractal structure relative to the Intermediate degree, labeled wave 5{0}, which began in December 2018.

The 5th wave that began on November 19, wave 5{-11}, is eleven levels below Intermediate degree.

A typical 5th wave will move above the end of the preceding 3rd wave — wave 3{-11} in this case. It ended on November 11 at 6053.25. A 5th wave sometimes ends below that level, a condition called “truncation”, or moves further beyond it than seems reasonable (a condition called “extension”).

When wave 5{-11} is complete, it will simultaneously mark the end of waves 5{-10}, 5{-9} and 5{-8}, and wave 3{-7}, the middle subwave of its parent, wave 1{-6}.

Wave 3{-7} will be followed by a downward correction, wave 4{-7}, and then an uptrending final subwave, wave 5{-7}.

The end of wave 5{-7} will also be the end of the parent wave 1{-6}, which began on August 6.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? None at present. They will develop, as they always do.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-11}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 11/19/2024, 5933 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 20, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reversed to the upside.

Elliott Wave Theory: By my analysis, the 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11 ended at today’s session low, 5855, and a 5th-wave upward correction, wave 5{-11} on the chart, has begun.

The rise carrie the price above the end of the previous wave, 5933 on November 18, a downward 5th-wave — wave 5{-13) — within the final subwave, wave C, within a larger 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11 from 6053.35.

That break-above doesn’t break any rules of Elliott Wave Theory, so isn’t inconsistent with a continuation of the smaller 4th wave listed above, the principal analysis from this morning. On the other hand, it isn’t inconsistent with the low set in today’s session.

This morning’s analysis had wave 5{-13} still underway. I’ve marked the chart a thought wave 5{-13} ended at the low point.

If the price reduces and falls below 5933, then my analysis tripped over the bottom fishing and the November 11 wave 4 is still underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight, from the 5930s to the 5850s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory defines the fall as the onset of the 5th wave within a larger C wave, the final subwave within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11.

A wave on the chart is labelled with a wave number and subscript in curly brackets showing the wave’s position within the fractal structure of the chart in relation to the Intermediate degree, currently wave 5{0}, which began in December 2018.

In the smaller wave structure now under discussion, from larger to smaller, the 4th-wave downward correction is wave 4{-11}, which is in wave C{-12}, which in turn is navigating through wave 5{-13}.

The third wave is quite often the longest in a series of five waves. Wave 3{-13} took 16.5 hours start to finish. The present wave 5{-13} has been underway for 24 hours.

There’s no rule that says how much time a 5th wave must take, nor its length in relationship to the preceding 3rd wave. The only rule is that wave 3 can’t be shorter than both waves 1 and 5.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? In the past few days I’ve counted the 4th-wave downward correction since November 11 as being in its final subwave. It’s possible that the whole pattern is the 1st subwave, wave A, and the A-B-C pattern is one degree lower, and that is the alternative analysis. Unless something happens to change the analysis, I’m removing it after today as no longer likely.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis: (updated to match the afternoon analysis)

• .Principal Analysis:
• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-11}.

Long-term Waves.

(Updated to match the afternoon analysis.)

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 11/19/2024, 5933 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 19, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rosen during the session, from the 5880s into the 5890s, and then pulled back slightly..

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise and subsequent decline are subwaves within a larger subwave of wave C, the final subwave within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11, if the correction contains only a single corrective pattern, as as is typical. There are alternatives, as discussed in the November 15 Trader’s Notebook.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? As trading resumed overnight, the S&P 500 E-mini futures began the new week as it ended the old: Falling. The price has reached into the 5880s so far.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory concludes that the 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11 continues and is nearing its end as it works through its next-to-the-last subwave within its final subwave, wave C, within the correction.

When the correction is complete, a 5th-wave uptrend will begin, likely driving the price into the 6050s or higher.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? For the principal analysis, above, I’ve counted the 4th-wave downward correction since November 11 as being in its final subwave. It’s possible that the whole pattern is the 1st subwave, wave A, and the A-B-C pattern is one degree lower, and that is the alternative analysis. The further the decline, the less likely this alternative scenario becomes.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-11}, which is in its final subwave, wave C{-12}.
• Alternative Analysis.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-11}, which is in its forst subwave, wave A{-12}.
• Wave A{-12} is in its final subwave, wave C{-13}..

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 11/11/2024, 6053.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 18, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, from the 5930s to the 5970s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th wave downward correction continued to fall, lending credence to this morning’s principal analysis, that wave 4 is in its final subwave, wave C.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, from the 5970s to the 5930s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that the 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11 is nearing its end, if the correction takes a typical form. If not, then the correction will take longer than seems likely at present.

Here’s a line-up of where the correction stands and possibilities that may lie ahead.

• The 4th wave corrective pattern is in its final subwave, wave C.
• Wave C will have five subwaves and presently is in its final subwave, wave 5.
• Typically a 4th-wave correction will contain one corrective pattern.
• Occasionally, a 4th wave will form a compound correction, containing two or three corrective patterns, with the second and third connector waves separated from the pattern before it by connector waves.
• Whether simple or compound, once the final corrective pattern is complete, it will be the end of the 4th-wave compound correction.
• An uptrending 5th wave will follow and will have five subwaves.
• A 5th wave usually will move beyond the end of the preceding 3rd wave, 6053.25 in the present case.
• Sometimes the 5th wave ends below that level, a condition known as truncation.
• At other times, the 5th wave moves beyond the end wave 3, traveling further than usual in a condition known as extension.
• And, most often, wave 5 will move beyond the end of wave 3, traveling a distance consistent with the wave structure. (How is that distance measured? I’ve found no clear guidance in Elliott Wave Theory.)
• The end of wave 5 will trigger the simultaneous end three 5th waves, each a degree higher than the one before it.
• Also ending will be a 3rd wave, an additional degree higher . The 3rd wave began on August 7 from 5182.
• The 3rd wave, covering more than three months, will be followed by a 4th-wave downward correction of considerable size.
• The 4th-wave correction, if it is typical, will end within the range of the 4th subwave within wave 3. That range is from 5665.25 down to 5394.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? For the principal analysis, above, I’ve counted the 4th-wave downward correction since November 11 as being in its final subwave. It’s possible that the whole pattern is the 1st subwave, wave A, and the A-B-C pattern is one degree lower, and that is the alternative analysis.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-11}, which is in its final subwave, wave C{-12}.

Alternative Analysis.

• Wave 5{-10} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-11}, which is in its forst subwave, wave A{-12}.
• Wave A{-12} is in its final subwave, wave C{-13}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 11/11/2024, 6053.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 15, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell into the 5970s during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline confirmed that the 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11 is in its last subwave, wave C.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6004 to the 6020s, dropping slightly as the opening bell approached coincident with the release of the Producer Price Index.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave structure of the chart remains little changed. The 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 4 continues. It’s middle subwave, wave B, may have ended on November 11 at 6035.25, and if so, the final subwave, wave C, is underway. A C wave has five subwaves and appears to be in its final wave, wave 5.

In any case, once wave C is complete, it will be the end of the corrective pattern. At that point, one of two possibilities will happen.

If the 4th-wave correction takes the most common form — a single corrective pattern — then the end of wave C will be the end if its parent wave, wave 4, and a 5th-wave uptrend will begin.

If the correction takes a compound form, wave C will be followed by a connector wave, and then a second corrective pattern, and then possibly a third, delaying the start of the 5th-wave uptrend.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? None at present, beyond of the question of whether the 4th-wave correction has completed its wave B subwave.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in wave 4{-11}, its next-to-the-last wave, which in turn is in wave C{-12}, its 3rd and final subwave.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 11/11/2024, 6053.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 14, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the losing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded between the 5990s and the 6030s during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory analysis: Unchanged. The 4th wave downward correction that began on November 4 continues and is now in it middle subwave, wave B.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways most of overnight, until the Consumer Price Index data for October was released, sending the futures rising from just above 6000 into the 6030s within a span of 10 minutes. The index rose by 0.2%, the same as in the prior two months.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the rise as the middle wave — wave B — within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on October 11. Wave 4 is a subwave of a 5th-wave uptrend that began on November 4.

Each wave on the chart are labelled with its wave number and a subscript in curly brackets show the waves position in the fractal structure of the price movements relative to the Intermediate Degree, which began in December 2018.

As seen on the chart, the rise overnight was rising wave B{-12} within a falling corrective movement, wave 4{-10}.

The subwaves within wave 4{-10} were ambiguous at the outset but became somewhat clearer during the November 12 session as analyzed the afternoon’s Trader’s Notebook. I had analyzed the decline as wave C. Wave B now seems more likely, and it could be that the waves labeled A{-12} and B{-12} on today’s chart will turn out to be waves 1{-13} and 2{-13}, subwaves of wave A{-12}.

So, clarity, yes, but it’s not yet perfectly clear.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? No ambiguities beyond the subwaves within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on November 11.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in wave 4{-11}, its next-to-the-last wave, which in turn is in wave B{-12}, its 2nd subwave.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 11/11/2024, 6053.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 13, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 5980s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline can be interpreted as the C wave within a downward correction. Given the correction’s distance into the parent 5th wave that began on November 4, it seems most likely to be a 4th-wave correction within the larger 5th-wave uptrend. If the chart plays out that way, then the 3rd wave within the larger 5th ended on November 12, and the 4th wave correction will be followed by a 5th subwave within the larger 5th-wave uptrend.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways overnight, remaining with a 6030s to 6010s range.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory suggests that the 5th-wave uptrend that began on November 4 internally moved into a so-far-shallow downward correction.

When wave 5 is complete, it will also be the end of the two other 5th waves of increasing degree, and the end of a still larger 3rd wave that began on August 7 from 5182. It will be followed by a 4th-wave downward correction considerably larger than what we’ve seen recently.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 130-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The present 5th-wave uptrend has considerable ambiguity in its internal count, as is often the case with a low-degree rapid rise or fall. I discussed the ambiguities in detail in the November 11 “Trader’s Notebook”.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 12, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Holiday. The bond markets will be closed in the United States today to market the Veterans Day holiday. Stock and options markets will trade as usual.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, into the 6010s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rising 5th wave that began on November 4 continues, as do the ambiguities concerning wave 5 subwaves.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose into the 6050s after trading resumed overnight and then pulled back into the 6040s.

What does it mean? The rising 5th wave that began on November 4 continues, according to Elliott Wave Theory. Within that rise, however, the subwaves are less than clear.

On the chart I’ve put up two sets of labels for subwaves of the 5th-wave rise, one colored black and the other red. The black version looks a bit more likely than the red to me, but honestly, I can’t choose between them.

So at this point I’m considering each to be a principal analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? None beyond the subwaves of wave 5, discussed above.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analyses #1 and #2:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.
• Within wave 10, the subwaves are either in 3{-11} or 5{-11}. The differing wave counts are colored black and red, respectively.

Long-term Waves.

• These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 11, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching slightly above 6040.

The middle subwave—wave 3—within the uptrending final subwave—wave 5—is part of a sequence of three 5th waves, each increasing in size. All are subwaves within a larger 3rd wave that began on August 7 at 5182. When the smallest of these 5th waves concludes, it will signal the end of the entire sequence. At the highest degree, this will also mark the completion of the 3rd wave and the beginning of a 4th-wave downward correction.

Shorter version: Expect an uptrend for a while, but keep in mind, no uptrend lasts forever. A correction follows every uptrend.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways for much of the overnight period, dropping from 6010 into the 5990s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? According to Elliott Wave Theory, the 5th-wave uptrend that began on November 4 continues to unfold through its early subwaves.

One challenge in Elliott Wave analysis is the difficulty in accurately placing a wave within the fractal structure of the chart. Is the rise since November 4 an unusually long 1st subwave within the 5th-wave uptrend? Or is it a 4th wave within an exceptionally strong 5th-wave rise with poorly delineated subwaves? Or perhaps it is another variation that has yet to come to mind as I ponder the chart, sipping my morning green tea.

One indicator is the length of the 5th wave relative to others of the same degree.

To avoid confusion, I’ll use the wave labeling system from the chart: the wave number and a subscript in curly brackets indicating the wave’s degree relative to the Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate wave is wave 5{0}, which began in December 2018.

The current 5th wave, 5{-10}, has so far covered 288.75 points. The preceding 3rd wave of the same degree, wave 3{-10}, covered 202 points from start to finish.

Moving one degree higher, the ongoing final wave, wave 5{-9}, has covered 289 points. The preceding 3rd wave of that degree, wave 3{-9}, spanned 418 points in total.

Thus, the present uptrending 5th wave, wave 5{-10}, is perfectly in line with the preceding wave of that degree, wave 3{-10}. The 1st wave of the same degree, wave 1{-10}, covered a distance of 84 points.

For my principal analysis, I’m treating the rise as 5{-10} within its 3rd subwave.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., -minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? The subwave analysis may well change as the 5th wave’s internal structure gains clarity.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• .Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.

Long-term Waves.

• These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)
• 3{-11} (unnamed), 11/6/2024, 5900.25

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 8, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, although at a slower pace, reaching above 6010.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 5th-wave uptrend that began on October 4 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, reaching into the 5980s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory interprets the rise since November 4 as a 5th-wave uptrend, the final subwave of a larger uptrend that began on October 2.

The question is: where do wave 5’s internal subwaves stand? The strength of the initial rise left little distinction on the chart between the first two subwaves. What’s visible is a long and rapid ascent that resembles a 3rd wave. A close-up view—using 20-minute bars—shows a hint of subwaves 1 and 2, but they appear messy and lack clarity. A brief and shallow decline on November 6 could indicate a 4th subwave, a downward correction.

Under this analysis, the resumption of the rise would be the final subwave in the sequence.

Given the small internal movements and the rapid progression, I’m reluctant to label the subwaves as belonging directly to the 5th wave that began on November 4. Most likely, they’re one degree lower, possibly subwaves within the 1st wave of the rise.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? As described above, the internal structure of the rise since November 4 is quite ambiguous. Time will clarify it. Meanwhile, the 5th-wave uptrend, numbered 5{-10}, will be the smallest wave with clarity

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its final; subwave, uptrending wave 5{-8}.
• Wave 5{-8} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-9}, which is in its final subwave, uptrending wave 5{-10}.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-1} Minor, 10/27/2023, 4127.25 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 3{-3} Minuette, 10/27/23, 4127.75 (up)
• 5{-4} Subminuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 5{-5} Micro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 1{-6} Submicro, 8/5/2024, 5120 (up)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 9/6/2024, 5394 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 10/2/2024, 5724 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 11/4/2024, 5824.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 7, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.