3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, approaching 5800. Elliott Wave Theory: The 5th-wave downtrend that began on September 26 is in its first subwave, which in turn is in its declining 3rd subwave. The present rise is a subwave of the larger declining 3rd wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from the 5720s into the 5770s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the upward movement as a 4th-wave correction within the middle subwave, wave 3, of the first subwave of a a 5th-wave downtrend that began on September 26.

When the 4th-wave correction is complete, the parent wave, a downtrending 1st wave, will resume with its final subwave. When complete, that final subwave will also be the end of the first wave of within the September 26 5th wave. A 2nd wave upward correction will follow.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are two.

Alternative #1:

Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves — waves A, B and C — and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would mean that the 4th-wave upward correction is still underway and would delay the start of the following 5th wave downtrend.

Alternative #2:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 is still underway and will soon reverse, reaching above the September 26 high, 5830. The lower it goes, the less likely this scenario becomes.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its initial subwave, declining wave 5{-11}, which in its 1st subwave, declining wave 1{-12}, which in turn is in a 3rd-wave downtrend, wave 3{-13}.

Alternative #1:

• Wave 4{-11} a rising correction, is taking a compound form,
• The three subwaves — waves A{-12}, B{-12} and C{-12} — have completed the first corrective pattern. A declining connector wave — wave X{-12} is underway

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 8, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session. In Elliott Wave Theory, the continued decline suggests that wave 3, a subwave within the first subwave of a 5th-wave downtrend. The wave of the smallest degree, wave 3, began on October 6 from 5808. That interpretation confirms this morning’s somewhat tentative analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell fewer than 50 points after trading resumed overnight and then rose a fraction of the decline.

What does it mean? The decline, as analyzed usng Elliott Wave Theory, is a subwave buried two-degrees deep within a downtrending 5th wave that began on September 26.

The 5th wave is in its initial subwave. One degree lower, the overnight decline appears to be a downtrending wave 3 that began moments after trading resumed on Sunday, New York time.

That conclusion carries a caveat. It’s possible that the small 2nd-wave upward correction that began on October 6 is still underway. [Invalidated by the afternoon analysis.]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are three, one of which is no longer a possibility.

Alternative #1:

Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves — waves A, B and C — and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would mean that the 4th-wave upward correction is still underway and would delay the start of the following 5th wave downtrend.

Alternative #2:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 is still underway and will soon reverse, reaching above the September 26 high, 5830. The lower it goes, the less likely this scenario becomes.

Alternative #3: [Invalidated by the afternoon analysis]

The small 2nd-wave uptrend that began on October 2 is still underway, has completed its first subwave, wave A, and is now in its second, wave B.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its initial subwave, declining wave 5{-11}, which in its 1st subwave, declining wave 1{-12}, which in turn is in a 3rd-wave downtrend, wave 3{-13}.

Alternative #1:

• Wave 4{-11} a rising correction, is taking a compound form,
• The three subwaves — waves A{-12}, B{-12} and C{-12} — have completed the first corrective pattern. A declining connector wave — wave X{-12} is underway.

Alternative #2:

• Wave 4{-11} continues to decline as a subwave of wave C{-12}.
• When the subwave is complete wave C{-12} within wave 4{-11} will continue to rise.

Alternative #3 [Invalidate by the afternoon analysis]

• Wave 2{-13}, an upward correction, continues and is in its 3rd subwave, wave B{-14}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 7, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures attained an overnight peak 5803.25 as the opening bell approached, and then fell during the session into the 5740s, fluctuating narrowly thereafter.

The session-opening Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged. A 2nd-wave upward correction continues within a larger 5th-wave downtrend that began on September 26.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply into the 5790s upon the release of the Employment Situation Report for September.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the movement as a 2nd-wave upward correction within the initial subwave of a 5th-wave downtrend that began on September 26.

Under the Elliott Wave rules, the rising 2nd wave must remain below the start of the preceding 3rd wave — 5830. If it were to move above that level, then something else is going on and the analysis will be redone.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are two.

Alternative #1:

Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves — waves A, B and C — and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would mean that the 4th-wave upward correction is still underway and would delay the start of the following 5th wave downtrend.

Alternative #2:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 is still underway and will soon reverse, reaching above the September 26 high, 5830. The lower it goes, the less likely this scenario becomes.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its initial subwave, declining wave 5{-11}, which in its 1st subwave, declining wave 1{-12}, which in turn is in a 2nd-wave upward correction, wave 2{-13}.

Alternative #1:

• Wave 4{-11} a rising correction, is taking a compound form,
• The three subwaves — waves A{-12}, B{-12} and C{-12} — have completed the first corrective pattern. A declining connector wave — wave X{-12} is underway.

Alternative #2:

• Wave 4{-11} continues to decline as a subwave of wave C{-12}.
• When the subwave is complete wave C{-12} within wave 4{-11} will continue to rise.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 4, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to trade sideways during the session, staying close to the range that had limited overnight trading.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 5th wave downtrend that began on September 26 continues to work through its early phases.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 5770s into the 5720s overnight and then took back a portion of the decline.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory terminology, the 1st subwave within the downtrending 5th-wave that began on September 26 continues.

If typical, wave 5 will reach below the end of the preceding 3rd wave, 5394, on September 6.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are two.

Alternative #1:

Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves — waves A, B and C — and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would mean that the 4th-wave upward correction is still underway and would delay the start of the following 5th wave downtrend.

Alternative #2:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 is still underway and will soon reverse, reaching above the September 26 high, 5830. The lower it goes, the less likely this scenario becomes.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, declining wave 5{-11}.

Alternative #1:

• Wave 4{-11} a rising correction, is taking a compound form,
• The three subwaves — waves A{-12}, B{-12} and C{-12} — have completed the first corrective pattern. A declining connector wave — wave X{-12} is underway.

Alternative #2:

• Wave 4{-11} continues to decline as a subwave of wave C{-12}.
• When the subwave is complete wave C{-12} within wave 4{-11} will continue to rise.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 3, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures moved net sideways during the session, largely staying in the 5360s to the 5330s, with a breakout on either side.

Elliott Wave Theory: The downtrending 5th wave that began on September 26 continues to work through its initial subwave.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures again traded narrowly overnight, fluctuating between the 5760s and the 5730s.

What does it mean? After analyzing the chart using Elliott Wave Theory, I’ve concluded that the 5th-wave downtrend that began on September 26 from 5830 is working through its early stages.

A typical 5th wave will move beyond the end of the preceding 3rd wave, 5394 in this case. But not always. Sometimes a 5th wave ends before reaching that level, a condition known as truncation.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are two.

Alternative #1:

Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves — waves A, B and C — and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would mean that the 4th-wave upward correction is still underway and would delay the start of the following 5th wave downtrend.

Alternative #2:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 is still underway and will soon reverse, reaching above the September 26 high, 5830. The lower it goes, the less likely this scenario becomes.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, declining wave 5{-11}.

Alternative #1:

• Wave 4{-11} a rising correction, is taking a compound form,
• The three subwaves — waves A{-12}, B{-12} and C{-12} — have completed the first corrective pattern. A declining connector wave — wave X{-12} is underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 2, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to the 5730s during the session and then worked its way back up into the 5780s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 5th-wave downtrend that began on September 26 continues and has reached its final wave within the larger declining 1st wave of the downtrend. It’s also possible that the smallest wave described is a subwave within a subwave of the downtrend’s 1st wave.

The first steps of a trend are filled with ambiguity regarding each wave’s positioning within the fractal structure of the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded narrowly overnight from the 5822.50 and above 5800.75. In the minutes after the opening bell, the price fell further, into the 5780s

What does it mean? The price remained below the September 26 high, 5830, after falling below the starting point, 5768, of the rise that carried the price to its peak. In Elliott Wave Theory, those facts suggest that the 5830 high is the end of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 from 5394, and the beginning of a downtrending 5th wave that, if typical, stands a good chance of falling below that level.

None of that scenario is guaranteed. The price, within the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, could still reverse and move above 5830, showing that the 4th-wave upward correction is still underway. And the 4th-wave upward correction, having completed three subwaves, may be taking a complex form, with the decline since September 26 being an X-wave separating the first corrective pattern from a second one.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are two.

Alternative #1:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 is still underway and will soon reverse, reaching above the September 26 high, 5830

Alternative #2:

Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves — waves A, B and C — and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would mean that the 4th-wave upward correction is still underway and would delay the start of the following 5th wave downtrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, declining wave 5{-11}.

Alternative #1:

• Wave 4{-11} a rising correction, is taking a compound form,
• The three subwaves — waves A{-12}, B{-12} and C{-12} — have completed the first corrective pattern. A declining connector wave — wave X{-12} is underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 1, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures took a dive into the 5750s during the session and immediately took most of it back, climbing into the 5780s. The quick movement came during a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th wave upward correction that began on September 6 continued to work through its endgame, carrying with it a heavy load of ambiguity. Seem this morning’s discussion below. The quick decline brought the price below the September 25 low, 5768, greatly increasing the likelihood that the 4th wave correction has ended and a 5th wave downtrend has begun. See tomorrow’s morning analysis for a decision on whether wave 4 has ended.

9:35 a.m. New York times

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued work its way lower overnight. The price continues to remain below the September 26 high, 5830. So far since trading resumed, the price has reached into the 5770s.

What does it mean? The chart continues to show a great deal of ambiguity. Was the September 26 peak the end of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on September and has the ensuing 5th-wave downtrend begun? Or is the 4th-wave correction still underway but very near its end? Or is the 4th-wave taking the form of a complex correction, wherein the decline is an X-wave connecting the first three-subwave corrective pattern with a second one?

Nothing is a clear at the moment. I’ve decided to label the chart with the 4th-wave endgame scenario until I see a stronger indication that wave 5 has begun. A move below the September 25 low, 5768, would strengthen the argument in favor of that scenario. The lower the price falls, the more likely that senario becomes.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are three.

Alternative #1:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 ended on September 19. A 5th-wave downtrend has begun.

Alternative #2:

This alternative is a future possibility, after wave C is complete. Typically, a 4th-wave correction will have three subwaves — A, B and C — and then will be complete. Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would delay the start of the following 5th wave uptrend.

Alternative #3:

This alternative has to do with how best to interpret the chart’s position within wave C. It plays off of the fact that the 2nd subwave within C under the Principal Analysis is quite small. It is possible that the decline we’ve seen since September 2 is a degree smaller within the fractal structure of the chart than the principal analysis would have. Under this scenario, wave 1 within wave C is underway. This would delay the end of the 4th-wave downward correction and the start of the ensuing 5th wave uptrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, rising wave 5{-11}.
• Within rising wve 5{-11}, the subwaves are rising wave C{-12}, rising wave 5{-13} and rising wave 5{-14}

Alternative Analysis #1, upward correction ended

• Wave 4{-8} has ended and falling wave 5{-8} has begun.

Alternative Analysis #2, compound correction scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, still in the future, will be the end of wave C{-9} but not of the wave 4{-8} downward correction, which under this scenario will take a compound form containing two or three corrective patterns.
• The present wave C{-9} will be followed by a rising connector wave X{-9} and then a declining wave A{-9}, the first wave of the second corrective pattern.

Alternative Analysis #3, wave 1 scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its initial subwave wave 1{-10}, which in turn is in its final subwave, wave 3{-11}. And wave 3{-11} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-12}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 30, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the opening bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 5780s. At present I’m leaving the analysis unchanged. A drop below the low of September 25 would be stronger evidence that the 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 ended at the September 26 peak.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight after the Personal Consumption Index was released, from the 5790s to 5817. The price remained below the high reached the day before, 5830.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, the chart is in a state of uncertainty. Either the 5830 high was the end of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 11, or the correction continues and will reach a higher high.

The bigger picture.All of this is happening within a 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6. When that larger 4th-wave is complete, it will be followed by a 5th-wave downtrend that is likely to reach into the 5390s and lower.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are three.

Alternative #1:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 ended on September 19. A 5th-wave downtrend has begun.

Alternative #2:

This alternative is a future possibility, after wave C is complete. Typically, a 4th-wave correction will have three subwaves — A, B and C — and then will be complete. Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would delay the start of the following 5th wave uptrend.

Alternative #3:

This alternative has to do with how best to interpret the chart’s position within wave C. It plays off of the fact that the 2nd subwave within C under the Principal Analysis is quite small. It is possible that the decline we’ve seen since September 2 is a degree smaller within the fractal structure of the chart than the principal analysis would have. Under this scenario, wave 1 within wave C is underway. This would delay the end of the 4th-wave downward correction and the start of the ensuing 5th wave uptrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, rising wave 5{-11}.
• Within rising wve 5{-11}, the subwaves are rising wave C{-12}, rising wave 5{-13} and rising wave 5{-14}

Alternative Analysis #1, upward correction ended

• Wave 4{-8} has ended and falling wave 5{-8} has begun.

Alternative Analysis #2, compound correction scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, still in the future, will be the end of wave C{-9} but not of the wave 4{-8} downward correction, which under this scenario will take a compound form containing two or three corrective patterns.
• The present wave C{-9} will be followed by a rising connector wave X{-9} and then a declining wave A{-9}, the first wave of the second corrective pattern.

Alternative Analysis #3, wave 1 scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its initial subwave wave 1{-10}, which in turn is in its final subwave, wave 3{-11}. And wave 3{-11} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-12}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 27, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, down to the 5770s, and then began to climb again.

Elliott Wave Theory: It’s possible that the overnight peak, 5830, was the end of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6. The subwaves make that interpretation possible. However, it’s not a certainty, and I’m taking a cautious approach, staying with this morning’s interpretation that wave 4 is still underway. I shall reassess state of wave 4 in the next morning’s analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new high overnight, 5830, eclipsing the September 19 high, 5797.50

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that the break above the sideways pattern of the past week means that the very small 4th-wave downward correction has ended and an equally small uptrending 5th wave has begun. Although the waves are small, their implications are large.

The correction and uptrend are the last two subwaves of a rising 5th wave that began on September 18, which in turn is the final wave of the C wave that began on September 11. The C wave, in turn, is the final subwave within a larger rising 4th wave that began on September 11.

On the chart, from smaller to larger, the waves in play are wave 5{-14} within wave 5{-13} within wave C{-12} within wave 4{-11}.

When the smallest wave, wave 5{-14}, is complete, it will also be the end of the entire structure up to wave 4{-11} and the beginning of a 5th-wave downtrend that likely will carry the price below 5400. See the “What are the alternatives?” section below for the ambiguities and caveats.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are three.

Alternative #1:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 ended on September 19. A 5th-wave downtrend has begun.

Alternative #2:

This alternative is a future possibility, after wave C is complete. Typically, a 4th-wave correction will have three subwaves — A, B and C — and then will be complete. Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would delay the start of the following 5th wave uptrend.

Alternative #3:

This alternative has to do with how best to interpret the chart’s position within wave C. It plays off of the fact that the 2nd subwave within C under the Principal Analysis is quite small. It is possible that the decline we’ve seen since September 2 is a degree smaller within the fractal structure of the chart than the principal analysis would have. Under this scenario, wave 1 within wave C is underway. This would delay the end of the 4th-wave downward correction and the start of the ensuing 5th wave uptrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, rising wave 5{-11}.
• Within rising wve 5{-11}, the subwaves are rising wave C{-12}, rising wave 5{-13} and rising wave 5{-14}

Alternative Analysis #1, upward correction ended

• Wave 4{-8} has ended and falling wave 5{-8} has begun.

Alternative Analysis #2, compound correction scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, still in the future, will be the end of wave C{-9} but not of the wave 4{-8} downward correction, which under this scenario will take a compound form containing two or three corrective patterns.
• The present wave C{-9} will be followed by a rising connector wave X{-9} and then a declining wave A{-9}, the first wave of the second corrective pattern.

Alternative Analysis #3, wave 1 scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its initial subwave wave 1{-10}, which in turn is in its final subwave, wave 3{-11}. And wave 3{-11} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-12}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 26, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range during the session. Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th-wave upward upward correction that began on September 6 continues to work through its endgame.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Another day, another overnight trading session where the S&P 500 E-mini futures traded within a narrow range, between the 5770s and the 5790s. As the opening bell sounded, the price rose above the September 19 high, reaching 5798

What does it mean? What it meant yesterday, and the day before yesterday. The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 continues to work through its endgame. Internally, from larger degrees to smaller degrees: The September 6 Wave 4 is in its final subwave, wave C, which is in its final subwave, wave 5, which is in its next-to-the-last subwave, a 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 18, which is in its final subwave, wave C.

That’s a lot of final waves. At some point, a smaller final wave will reach its end, and that finality will cascade up the fractal structure, ending the larger 4th-wave upward correction and ushering in a 5th-wave uptrend

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? There are three.

Alternative #1:

The 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 6 ended on September 19. A 5th-wave downtrend has begun.

Alternative #2:

This alternative is a future possibility, after wave C is complete. Typically, a 4th-wave correction will have three subwaves — A, B and C — and then will be complete. Occasionally a subwave will take a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns, each composed of three subwaves and connected to the prior pattern by a wave called an X wave. This would delay the start of the following 5th wave uptrend.

Alternative #3:

This alternative has to do with how best to interpret the chart’s position within wave C. It plays off of the fact that the 2nd subwave within C under the Principal Analysis is quite small. It is possible that the decline we’ve seen since September 2 is a degree smaller within the fractal structure of the chart than the principal analysis would have. Under this scenario, wave 1 within wave C is underway. This would delay the end of the 4th-wave downward correction and the start of the ensuing 5th wave uptrend.

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• Rising wave 5{0} is underway. It is a wave of Intermediate degree that began in December 2018.
• It is in its final subwave, wave 5{-1}.
• Within wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2}, 5{-3} and 5{-4} are underway, as is wave 5{-5}.
• Wave 5{-5} is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-6}, which in turn is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-7}.
• Wave 3{-7} is in its next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-8}, a downward correction.
• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is within wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10} is in its final subwave, rising wave 5{-11}.
• Within rising wve 5{-11}, the subwaves are rising wave C{-12}, rising wave 5{-13} and falling wave 4{-14}

Alternative Analysis #1, upward correction ended

• Wave 4{-8} has ended and falling wave 5{-8} has begun.

Alternative Analysis #2, compound correction scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its middle subwave, wave 3{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, still in the future, will be the end of wave C{-9} but not of the wave 4{-8} downward correction, which under this scenario will take a compound form containing two or three corrective patterns.
• The present wave C{-9} will be followed by a rising connector wave X{-9} and then a declining wave A{-9}, the first wave of the second corrective pattern.

Alternative Analysis #3, wave 1 scenario:

• Wave 4{-8} is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}, which is in its initial subwave wave 1{-10}, which in turn is in its final subwave, wave 3{-11}. And wave 3{-11} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-12}.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 25, 2024

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.