Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures, having barely budged overnight, continued to trade narrowly during the session, remaining between 6759.25 and 6789.75.
Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C within an uptrending 4th-wave correction continues. Wave 4 has taken the shape of an expanding Diagonal Triangle, which will have five subwaves.
In this morning’s analysis I wrote that wave 4 will end when wave C does. That was an error. Wave 4 will end with wave E in the Diagonal Triangle.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures scarcelly moved overnigt, declining 22 points and then rertracing about half of the distance
What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis hasn’t changed from yesterday’s. Wave C within a 4th-wave upward correction continues. The end of wave 4 will be the beginning of a downtrending 5th wave.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
S&P 500 Index:
1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
C{-7} Minscule, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 21, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures has risen but slightly since my update of the analysis three hours and 15 minutes ago.
Elliott Wave Theory: The analysis has changed not at all. See the upper table, posted at 12:15 p.m. The lower table is outdated but I kept it so readers can easily see the changes.
12:15 p.m. New York time
Chart Interpretation updated. The futures’ rise that continued into the session this morning rose too far moving above the October 15 high and thereby breaking a rule of Elliott Wave Theory. As always, when the analysis no longer matches the reality on the chart, it’s time to make a change.
Under the new analysis, wave 4{-6}, a rising correction, is underway, and within it wave C[-7} is underway, the middle wave of a 5-wave sequence, waves A through E, in the form of an Expanding Diagonal Triangle.
See the new chart just below. I’ve retained this morning’s chart for comparison.
[Updated: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose soon after trading resumed overnight, from 6694 into the 6740s.
What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that wave A within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on October 17 is still underway, although it is close to its endpoint. A declining wave B will follow, and then a rising wave C. Under most circumstances, wave C will be the end of parent wave 2. (On rare occasions a correction will take a complex form, containing two or three triple-wave corrective patterns. No sign of that here yet)
[Outdated: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
[Updated] These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
S&P 500 Index:
1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
C{-7} Minscule, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 20, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6710s.
Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave A, the first subwave of a 2nd-wave upward correction that began today, is now underway and the A-wave is in its 5th and final subwave. Declining wave B will follow, followed by risng wave C, which likely will end the 2nd wave.and open a down-trending 3rd wave.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnigt, from 6571.25 reaching up to the 6670s so far.
What does it mean? The downtrending 5th wave that began on October 16 — wave 5{-6} — ended overnight at 6571.25. The end of that that, when Elliott Wave Theory is applied, is also the end of wave 1{-5} and the beginning of a rising 2nd-wave correction, wave 2{-5} and within it wave A{-6}.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 37-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
S&P 500 Index:
1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
A{-6} Submicro, 10/17/2025, 6751.25 (up)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 17, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 6750.50 and then reversed, so far declining into the 6630s, with more decline to come.
Elliott Wave Theory. For this discussion I’ll use the label form that appears on my charts: Wave number with a subscript in curly brackets showing the degrees distande from Intermediate degree (presently wave 1{0}, which began on October 8 from 6812.25).
The peak marked the end of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10 — wave 4{-6). Downtrending wave 5{-6} is now underway, at a rapid pace, and appears to now be in its final subwave, wave 5{-7}.
Alternatively, it could possibly be nearing the end of its first subwave, wave 1{-7} within wave 5{-6}, with wave 5{-8}, one degree lower, now underway. Time will tell which analysis fits the reality of the chart.
When wave 5[-6} is complete, it will be the end of wave 1{-5} and the beginning of an upward correction, wave 2{-5}. A 2nd wave correction, more often than not, takes the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves in wave A{-6}. Wave B{-6} will have three subwaves, and wave C{-6} will have five subwaves, whether the form of the correction is a Zigzag or a Flat, the latter being commonly found in 4th waves but sometimes in 2nd wave.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked its way higher over night, from 6502.50 to the 6740s.
What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the present rise that began on October 15 as being a low-degree 5th wave, the final subwave of a C wave that began on October 14.
The C wave in turn is a subwave of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10.
When wave 4 is complete, a downtending 5th wavewill begin, carrying the price into the 6540s, most likely, and perhaps well below that.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
S&P 500 Index:
1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25(down}
5{-6} Submicro, 10/16/2025, 6750.50 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 16, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined further during the session and then retraced a portion of the fall.
Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C{-7} continues its rise within wave 4{-6}, and the smaller C wave is nearing its end. It is now in wave 4{-8}, its next-to-the-last subwave.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6683.50 so far reaching into the 6740s.
What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees wave C as being underway, the final subwave in a 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10 from 6340.25.
When wave 4 is complete, downtrending wave 5 will begqn, most like carrying the price below the wave 4 starting point, perhaps significantly so.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
S&P 500 Index:
1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25(down}
4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 15, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6720s.
Elliott Wave Theory: The rise is wave C, the 3rd and likely the final wave within the 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10. When wave C is complete, it will likely be the end of wave 4, unless it takes a complex form with two or three three-wave corrective patterns. Wave 4 will be followed by downtrending wave 5, which will most likely carry the price into the 6450s and perhaps lower.
Correction notice. I mean a big correction. Like everyone else, I have no real experience with a broad decline spanning many degrees. Yet that’s what we have had since October 8. Bottom line: My inexperience led me into a horrendous error. I forgot that impulse waves tend to move in the direction of the trend, which is now down since October 8. I also forgot that every correction must be housed within an numbered corrective wave within the larger impulse wave.
I’ve corrected the chart, blushing as I work, and the analysis below to comform.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed overnight, falling from 6718.50 and so far almost reaching 6600.
What does it mean? In terms of Elliott wave theory, wave 5{-6} is now underway, the final subwave of declining wave 1{-5], which began on October 8. When wave 1{-5} is complete, an 2nd-wave upward correction will begin.
I
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
S&P 500 Index:
1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25(down}
5{-6} Submicro, 10/13/2025, 6718.50 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 14, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded sideways during most of the session, from the 6650s to the 6710s.
Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B within the downward correction that began on October 8 is presently underway. It will be followed by a falling C wave that will completing the corrective pattern.
Alternative analysis: In my present numbering, I’ve treated wave A as being a Flat, with three subwaves. It’s possible that it is instead forming a Zigzag pattern, with five subwaves. Using the nomenclature on the chart: That would mean that wave A{-5} would instead be wave 3{-6} within wave A{-5}, with waves 4{-6} and 5{-6} to follow before wave A{-5} reaches its end.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures ended a runaway decline on Friday, October 10 and began to rise, and continued rising after trading resumed Sunday evening, October 12.
The Elliott Wave Theory wave structures are quite different from how we left them on Friday.
The long decline that began on October 8 broke a rule of the theory. At its start the fall was a declining 5th wave finshing off wave C, a subwave of a 4th-wave upward correction. Once the rule was broken when the C wave moved beyond the start of the preceding A wave, the analysis had to change. The only way to fix the broken rule was to separate the subwave from the rise of which it was a part.
One change is the analysis — a relabelling in January 2022 — fixed the problem, turning the rapid decline into a thing of its own, unrelated to the preceding rise that had ended on October 8.
I wrote an essay this weekend describng the search for a solution, the fix itself, and it’\s implication both for the future and how we see the history of the market.
The essay, which was published on Sunday, October 12, also unveiled a startling event: The uptrending wave that began at the end of the Great Recession in 1932 had ended on October 8, 2025, signalling the start of a very large, very long decllne that will last for a century, more or less, composed at lower degrees of the usual alteration between bull markets and bear markets.
As for the decline, wave A{-4} has completed it’s first subwave, falling wave A{-5}, and has moved on to the second subwave, rising wave B{-5}, as the rhythm of Elliott Wave Theory moves the market, and us, into a new phase.
Could this be wrong? Time will let us know. If wave A{-4} reverses and rises above the October 8 peak, 6812.25, then a new reanalysis is wrong and wave 5{-5} and the other,larger 5th waves are still underway, and we still have the problem of the broken rule.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 37-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
S&P 500 Index:
A{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
A{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
A{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
A{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
A{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
A{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
S&P 500 Futures
A{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
A{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
A{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 13, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
The chart on the left covers the S&P 500 Index from February 2016, and on the right, the S&P 500 futures from September 2025. The lower chart traes the rise from the Dow Jones Industrial Average lowpoint in 1932. All run to the present.
The Problem
Last week, on October 8, the S&P 500 and associated futures and ETFs dropped sharply, covering enough distance to bring the price below into the territory of an earlier wave, breaking a rule of Elliott Wave Theory (EWT).
Traders who have worked with the theory for awhile know that when rules are broken, we fix the analysis, since we can’t fix the two indisputable realities, rule and the chart.
And that’s what i began to do, searching for changes in the analysis that would avoid the breaking of the rule.
A Caveat
This essay the the analysis it contains are not political commentary. They reflect the structure of the market itself, as defined by Elliott Wave principles, without reference to policy, ideology, or party.
A Brief Aside
When referring to Elliott waves, I use the numbering systems on my charts: The wave number followed by a subscript, early curly brackets, that show the distance in degrees from Intermediate degree, which is wave {0}.
The current chart at that time encompassed all movements within Elliott wave 3{-1}, of Minor Degree. Above it were three larger waves, all 5th waves. Below was a mishmash, within a rising market.
For EWT analysts, it was an indisputable fact that all movements big and small eventually end. That would be true of of waves below minor degree, and when they did, then wave 3{-1} would end and a significant downward correction, wave 4{-1}, would begin.
That was a worst of the damage that would be done, because wave 3{-1}, for the present, served as a protective buffer between the current minor structure and higher-degree 5th waves.
Back to the rule that was broken. I worked my way back trying to find a place where may analysis might lack the nuance that with the passage of time and events, I might see more clearly.
After hours of working through old analysis, I found myself staring at wave 3{-1}, a Minor Degree wave that my prior analyses had shown as underway. The wave had begun in March 2020, and the wave in the course of its rise to the present had encountered a drop off, in January 2022.
Perhaps it was the need for hope in the midst of a global pandemic. Perhaps it was a reluctance to see anything on the chart end in a world when so much else was ending as we slow lived through Covid lock-down. Hope in a hopeless time.
In my analysis I had allowed wave 3{-1} to proceed past the price decline and it was still with us in October 2025.
As I gazed it the chart, it was apparent to me that wave 3{-1} had in fact ended in January 2022, that the drop off was wave 4{-1}, and that the subsequent rise was wave 5{-1}, which has been still in progress today.
Consequences
The change of course had consequences. I changed my subsequent labelings to match the new analysis, a necessary task. As I worked on analyzing the subwaves of wave 5{-1}, I found that it, too, was in its final subwave, wave 5{-2}, which in turn was in its final subwave, wave 5{-3}.
The lowest of the batch, wave 5{-4}, which began on September 25, 2025, was in its final subwave, wave 5{-5}, which began on October 7, 2025, just last week as I write this.
And with that, clarity took hold: Absent the wave 3{-1} buffer, the Elliott Wave Theory llne showed 5th waves in progress from the smallest that began last week to the largest that began 93 years ago.
And if the smallest of the 5th waves is triggered, it will instantly cascade up through the set to the largest of the 5th waves.
And that, arguably, to quote the title of the 1987 song by REM, would truly be The End of the World as We Know It. The title of the sends “(And I Feel Fine)”. I’m not entirely sure that in this case, we would.
So What Now?
How might things play out? My analysis shows that on October 6, 2025 on the S&P 500 chart, wave 5{-3} peaked, at 6764.58. The date on the S&P 500 E-mini futures, which trade day and night except for weekends) was October 8, at 6812.75.
A sharp declined followed, so far carryong the price down to the 6540s during thee days of trading, the bulk of the decline coming on the third day. On a near-term chart it looks like a lot. In a multii-year system — multi-decade — it doesn’t look like much.
If the decline reverses and rises above 6712.75 on the futures, then wave 5{-2} is still underway, along with its smaller waves down to wave 5{-5}.
As trader’s, we always believe it’s wise to keep a close eye on the market. And in applying Elliott Wave Theory, it’s always import to to remember two things.
First, both rising waves and falling waves, whatever the size, each contains rising and falling waves. Within the downtrending wave that might follow the 92-year-old wave 5{+3}, we shall experience a lifetime of experience — huge bull markets and equally huge bear markets. And although the smaller the degree, the smaller the changes, the waves march on, uptending waves and downtrending waves, one after another, no matter what degree shows up in the wave’s label.
So rather than The End of the World As We Know It, I shall view it as a totally fascinating change in the Elliott Wave Theory analysis, more of the same, with a slightly different twist. I turn 80 in January. I’m quite certain I’ll do well after we move beyond the uptrending wave that ended the Great Depression, as will my 50-year-old son and my 15-year-old granddaughter. We’ll all feel fine.
Summary of Verification
I had my work verified by AI, ChatGPT-5, which I use in connection with trading. The AI’s full verification report can be found here
ChatGPT-5 wrote:
Our conclusion that the bull market dating back to 1932 has likely ended rests on a detailed review of the market’s wave structure rather than a single indicator or price event.
Each degree of trend — from the smallest intraday fluctuations to the grandest multi-decade cycles — was checked for internal consistency using Elliott Wave principles. The decisive evidence came when the wave previously labeled 3{-1} (thought to be still in progress) was reclassified as having ended in January 2022. That adjustment revealed that the final upward movement, wave 5{-1}, extended through October 8, 2025, completing not just one wave but the entire chain of 5th waves reaching upward through all degrees — right up to wave 5{+3}, which began in 1932.
This alignment of completed 5th waves across every degree is extremely rare. It implies not a correction within a long-term uptrend, but the end of the uptrend itself — a transition from expansion to contraction that could define the next generation of market behavior.
While every analysis contains uncertainty, this conclusion has been stress-tested against alternate counts, cross-index comparisons, and historical analogs. No alternative interpretation fits the data without breaking key Elliott Wave rules.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 12, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching 6641.50, shortly after President Trump said, “”There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the World ‘captive,’ but that seems to have been their plan for quite some time,” threatening higher tariffs.
Moments afterward, the S&P 500 futures began to decline, from 6806.50, and as the session drew closer to the end of its session, it continued to fall and as of this writing is presently in the 6620s.
Elliott Wave Theory. All ambiguity about which wave is underway has been erased. Using the nomenclature on the chart: Within upward correction wave 4{-13}, declining wave X{-14} is underway, a connector wave within two protective patterns with wave 4, which is a complex correction that can contain two or three corrective patterns.
Each wave X corrective pattern can take take form of a Zigzag or a Flat.
If it’s a Zigzag, its first subwave, Wave A{-15} will have five subwaves, each labeled with numbers. Under this scenario, the third middle subwave, wave 3{-16} is underway.
If it’s a Flat, wave A{-15} will have three subwaves. Under this scenario, the final subwave, wave C{-16}, is underway.
Flats tend to be associated with 4th waves, although both kinds can be found. I’ve chosen to label wave X as a flat whose initial subwave, wave A, is in its 3rd and final subwave, wave C.
As is always the case with Elliott Wave Theory, clarity can prove too be a fleeting result of how the wave’s are structure. I believe this to be the correct analysis. I won’t be shocked speechles if it’s not, but instead will redo the analysis and fix the problem.
Also, seconds before I was ready to file the posrt, wave X moved below the beginning of its parent wave, which is wave X. Taken strictly, this is a violation of a rule of Elliott Wave Theory. However, there is room in EWT for overshoots, especially if the vehicle is derived from an index, as these futures are. We’ll sort it out over the weekend and publish on Monday.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked its way lower from a peak early overnight — 6793.75 — to a low so far in the 6770s.
What does it mean? Elliott wave theory. The declining X-wave continues and is in a rising subwave, or perhaps has completed it and is resuming its downward trek.
Wave X is a subwave of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 25. Wave 4 is taking the form of a complex correction. It has completed one three subwave corrective pattern — labelled A, B and C — and after a connecting wave X, will begin a second corrective pattern, and perhaps it will go for a third after a second X-wave connector
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
S&P 500 Index:
5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
C{-10} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
1{-11} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
3{-12} (unnamed), 9/24/2025, 6728.50 (down)
4{-13} (unnamed), 9/25/2025, 6624.25 (up)
X{-14} (unnamed), 9/30/2025, 6812.25 (down)
1{-15} (unnamed), 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down)
1{-16} (unnamed), 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 10, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Note: I’m posted my afternoon analysis early because of a medical appointment. Here’s a third analysis covering subsequent moves of the S&P 500 futures.
Elliott Wave Theory: The initial, declining subwave rose slightly after reaching the day’s low during the session, from 6760.75 and so far has reached into the 6770s.
The wave structure, most likely, from lower degree to higher degree, is most likely this: Wave 4{-17} within wave 1{-16} within wave 1{-15} with wave X{-14} within a rising 4th-wave wave compound correction.
2:30 p.m. New York time
90-minutes before the closing bell. The market has continued lower through the late morning, reaching 6760.75 so far in the session. The decline from 6812.25 now displays clear impulsive characteristics on the 30-minute chart, with shallow retracements and expanding downside momentum. Filtered through Elliott Wave Theory, these traits suggest that wave C{−14} has most likely concluded, and that wave X{−14} is now underway.
The parent wave, 4{-13}, is a complex correction. Wave C{-13} is the end of the first three-wave corrective pattern, the X-wave now under way is a connecting wave, and after X the correction will move into a second three-wave corrective pattern, and perhaps another X-wave and a third pattern before wave 4 is complete.
Momentum indicators support this interpretation: the 30-minute and hourly RSI readings have dropped decisively below 50 without forming bullish divergence, while the MACD histogram continues to widen on the downside. As long as the futures remains beneath 6775, the working assumption is that X{−14}/1{−16} is in progress.
However, should the price recover above 6810 before the close, an alternate view would regain plausibility — that C{−14} is extending as a diagonal, implying another short-term head-fake before the larger correction resumes.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a higher high overnight, peaking at 6812.25, and then pulling back slightly into the 6890s.
What does it mean? That X-wave beginning discussed yesterday? Never happened. The new peak, when Elliott Wave Theory analysis, turns out to be a continuing rise that followed the end of a subwave within wave B, which in turn is the middle subwave within a larger wave C, which began on September 30 from 6680.
In other words, yet another hread-fae.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 5:35 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
[Updated for afternoon filing to reflect the onset of wave X{-14}.]
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
S&P 500 Index:
5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
S&P 500 Futures
1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
C{-10} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
1{-11} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
3{-12} (unnamed), 9/24/2025, 6728.50 (down)
4{-13} (unnamed), 9/25/2025, 6624.25 (up)
X{-14} (unnamed), 9/30/2025, 6812.25 (down)
1{-15} (unnamed), 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down)
1{-16} (unnamed), 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 9, 2025
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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