3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to the 4550s during the session and then returned to the 4570s. The price stayed within the range of the present small final wave — wave 5{-8} on the chart — whose end will trigger the end of the much larger A wave within the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27. This morning’s analysis is unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

2:10 p.m. New York time

Trades. I’ve entered short Iron Fly positions on QQQ and DTE, each with one day to expiration (1DTE), and have posted an analysis of the trades.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined in a gentle slope after trading resumed overnight, a calm start to a week of potential economic drama, picking up the pace as the opening bell approached.

The ADP sneak preview of employment will be released on Wednesday and the government’s full November employment situation report on Friday, each before the opening bell. There’s also a possibility — not a certainty — that the most sensitive metric of a business downturn, the Sahm Rule, will signal on Friday that a recession is already underway.

The trigger point is 0.50. The last Sahm update, a month ago when the October employment numbers were published, came in at 0.33. The Sahm metric has been backtested to March 1949. From then to the present, the Sahm Rule has moved to 0.33 or above 14 times, and only once, in 1951, did a recession fail to follow.

No metric is perfect, but the Sahm Rule has an excellent record of calling a recession within the first three months after it began

What does it mean? On the chart, the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27 is underway and is very close to the end of its initial subwave, the A wave. The smallest level that I’m tracking is in its 4th wave, with a 5th wave yet to come. When it is complete, the completion will cascade up four levels of increasingly larger 5th waves, ending them and the A wave.

A declining B wave will follow. If it’s typical, it will retrace 38% to 79% of the preceding A wave.

It is a firm rule of Elliott Wave Theory that a Zigzag correction like this correction will remain below the starting point of the preceding 1st wave, 4634.50. Any move above that level means something else is going on and the chart will be reanalyzed in light of that new information.

What are the alternatives? Of equal likelihood, the small 4th wave may have already ended and the December 1 peak, 4607.75, may have been the end of the 5th wave. Under this scenario, wave B began on December 1. The further the price falls, the more likely this scenario becomes.

In either case. Elliott wave patterns are independent of events. The timing of the patterns, on the other hand, is often influenced by events. If the two employment reports come in worse than expected, or if the Sahm Rule is triggered, indicating a recession is underway, then that could be sufficient to send the B wave tumbling down.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waves, down to wave 5{-8}.
• Within wave 5{-8}, declining wave 4{-9} is underway. It will be followed by rising wave 5{-9}.
• When wave 5{-9} is complete, it will cascade up the fractal structure, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on December 1 and wave B{-4} is underway.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 4, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures crept to a new high during the session, lending credence to this morning’s principal analysis. Wave A within the upward 4th-wave correction that began on October 27 continues. Unless, of course, the new peak is the end of wave A and the beginning of wave B. I’ve updated the chart.

12:05 p.m. New York time

Trades. I exited three positions during the first five minutes of the session, all of them 1DTE trades on expiration day: SPY, QQQ and AAPL. The outcome of the three taken together was a half a percent loss. SPY and QQQ were profitable, APPL produced a loss. I’ve updated the trade analyses with full results.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways for much of the night, then rose to the 4580s and fell to the 4560s.

What does it mean? In the discussion that follows,, the subscripts in curly brackets, both here and on the chart, indicate the waves position within the fractal structure in relation to the Intermediate degree, {0}.

The first subwave, an A wave, within the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27 continues to play its end game. I count the A wave as being in its 5th and final subwave, from one degree lower in the fractal structure of the chart to four degrees lower. When the smallest of these, wave 5{-8} in the Elliott wave nomenclature, reaches its end, it will cascade up the structure, also ending wave 5{-5} and wave A{-4} within the upward correction, wave 4{-3}.

The October 29 peak was the highest point so far of the 4th-wave upward correction and may have ended the A wave and the smaller 5th waves within it. Or not. A rise above that peak, 4597, will mean that the 5th wave is still underway. A decisive decline will mean that wave A ended at that peak and declining wave B has begun. A final subwave, rising wave C, will complete the correction and a downtrending 5th wave will follow.

What are the alternatives? I’ve chosen to retain the smaller 5th waves and their parent, wave A, as still being underway for my principal analysis., relegating the scenario that sees wave A ending at the November 29 high and wave B as being underway to alternative status.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waes, down to wave 5{-8}. When the smallest of the 5th waves is complete, it will cascade up, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on November 29 and wave B{-4} began its downward journey.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 1, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Symbols traded today: SPY, QQQ and AAPL

I entered new positions, one day before expiration, into SPY and QQQ, which have options expiring every day, and into AAPL, whose options expire once a week on Fridays.

SPY short Iron Fly

LOT:	16	ENTRY DATE:	11/30/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/1/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.06	$ 2.00	$ 0.06	3.0%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 453.60	$ 455.48	$ (1.88)	$0.00	151%
Impllied Volatility Rate	12.4	9.7	2.7	-2.7
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	457.00	81.0%	19
Break-even	456.06	67.0%	33
Short	454.00	53.0%	47
Puts
Short	454.00	46.0%	52
Break-even	453.06	61.0%	37.5
Long	451.00	76.0%	23

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	206.00
Risk	94.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.5

---

QQQ short Iron Fly

LOT:	8	ENTRY DATE:	11/30/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/1/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.32	$ 2.11	$ 0.21	10.0%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 386.36	$ 387.32	$ (0.96)	$0.00	91%
Impllied Volatility Rate	9.4	9.3	0.1	-0.1
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	390.00	73.0%	27
Break-even	388.32	59.5%	40.5
Short	386.00	46.0%	54
Puts
Short	386.00	46.0%	55
Break-even	384.82	66.0%	34.5
Long	382.50	86.0%	14

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	232.00
Risk	143.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.6

---

AAPL short Iron Fly

LOT:	1	ENTRY DATE:	11/30/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/1/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 4.09	$ 4.40	$ (0.31)	-7.0%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 188.31	$ 190.88	$ (2.57)	$0.01	498%
Impllied Volatility Rate	3.8	3.4	0.4	-0.4
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	195.00	84.0%	15
Break-even	191.59	64.0%	35
Short	187.50	44.0%	55
Puts
Short	187.50	57.0%	44
Break-even	186.59	69.0%	32
Long	182.50	81.0%	20

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	409.00
Risk	216.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.5

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 30, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures ranged from the 4540s to the 4507s. The decline from the November 29 peak was, in today’s session, either in a 4th-wave correction or a 2nd-wave correction within the 3rd wave one degree smaller. This morning’s analysis is unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

2:30 p.m. New York time

Trades. I entered three new positions today: Short Iron Fly options spreads that expire the next day; 1DTE trades in the jargon. Two have options with daily expirations: SPY and QQQ. The third is one of a large number of options that expire weekly, on Fridays, and so offer 1DTE trading opportunities only on Thursday. I’ve posted the trade analyses.

Also, two days late, I updated my November 27 trade analyses of SPY and QQQ with the next days exit and results.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways for much of the night, rising slightly as the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation stats drew near. The PCE release resulted in a 7-point whipsaw that ended up about where it had begun. The price then rose a bit higher, to 4578.25, and then retreated to the 4560s.

What does it mean? The price overnight remained below the most recent high, 4597 on Wednesday, as the upward 4th-wave correction that began on October 27 continues to work through its first subwave, the A wave. That initial wave is in its 5th and final subwave. It will be followed by declning wave B, which typically will retrace 38% to 79% of the A wave.

What are the alternatives? Any high at this point could be the end of wave A, or not. It’s possible that Wednesday’s peak was the end of the 5th and final subwave within wave A, and that wave B has begun.

The Chart. The chart shows the Elliott Wave numbers and a subscript, in curly brackets, designating the degree of each wave, which is the relative size of the wave within the fractal structure that is the stock price chart.

The upward correction is wave 4{-3}. The smallest degree I’m tracking — and the current wave on the chart — is wave 5{-8}. Between the two are three 5th waves, each one degree larger, and the initial subwave of the correction, wave A{-5}. When wave 5{-8} is complete, it will cascade up the degrees, also marking the end of the 5th waves and of wave A{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waes, down to wave 5{-8}. When the smallest of the 5th waves is complete, it will cascade up, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on November 29 and wave B{-4} began its downward journey..

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 30, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked at 4597 during the session and then pulled back into the 4550s. The price remains above the November 28 low, 4547, which was the start of the present rise into the 4590s.

This morning’s analysis stands unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching a new high for the present upward correction.

What does it mean? The correction, a 4th wave, began on October 22., and the new high resolves the conundrum that has dominated the analysis since last week: Has the first subwave of the correction, wave A, ended or not?

The answer is that wave A is still underway. Under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, no subwave of the correction can move above the starting point of the preceding 1st wave, which was 4634.50 on July 27. The 5th and final subwave within the correction has reached the low 4590s so far and so has room for a further rise. Although, not a lot, less than 45 points.

After wave A is complete, the middle subwave of the correction, wave B, will begin, and if it is typical it will retrace 38% to 79% of wave A. That’s a tendency, not a hard rule.

The present rise began on November 28 from 4547 and is part of a 5th subwave several degrees down within wave A. While solving a conundrum, the rise simultaneously reinstates the conundrum: Any peak, including the most recent, could be the end of the present rise and also the end of wave A.

What are the alternatives? Any pullback from the high in theory means that wave B may have already begun. Until there’s a stronger pullback to the downside, the weight of evidence favors the principal analysis: Wave A is still underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waes, down to wave 5{-8}. When the smallest of the 5th waves is complete, it will cascade up, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on November 29 and wave B{-4} began its downward journey..

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 29, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell rapidly during the session, from a high of 4577.25 back into the 4550s. The session high came to within four points of 4580.50, the peak on November 22 of the first subwave of the upward correction that began on October 27, but then pulled back.

The price remains above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which was a stalling point in the rise to the rise to the November 22 high.

This morning’s analysis still appllies: Two scenarios of equal likelihood.

• Scenario #1: Rising wave A ended continues to work through it’s 5th and final wave, or
• Scenario #2: Rising wave A ended on November 22 and falling wave B has begun.

For chart labels, I’m staying with Scenario #1 for now, in part because of the lack of a significant decline from the October 27 peak.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures stair-stepped lower overnight, from the 4560s to the 4540s.

What does it mean? The initial subwave, wave A, within the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27 is either nearing its end or has already ended. Those two equally likely scenarios have dominated the analysis since last week.

Under Scenario #1, Wave A is in its 4th subwave and will end with a push above the November 22 high, 4580.50, the high point of the correction so far. I lean toward Scenario #1 because the subwave count lacks a 5th wave, or so it seems to my eye. Also, the rather sleepy form of the movement more closely resembles 4th waves that I’ve analyzed than it does a 5th wave, which tends to be energetic. I’ve chose this scenario for my chart labeling.

Under Scenario #2, wave A ended the November 22 high and declining wave B began. Typically, since the correction is a Zigzag, wave B will retrace the 38% to 79% of the preceding A wave.

A firm rule of Elliott Wave Theory says that a 4th wave never moves above the start of the preceding 1st wave, 4634.50 in this case. That upper limit applies both to wave A in scenario #1 and the future wave C in both scenarios.

What are the alternatives? None aside of the two scenarios described above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• Lower still, two scenarios of equal probability:
  • Scenario #1:
    • Within wave 4{-3}, wave A{-4} continues.
    • Further down the list, wave 5{-5}, 6{-5}, 7{-5} and 8{-5} are underway and nearing completion.
  • Scenario #2:
    • Wave A{-4} ended on November 22 and wave B{-4} began its downward journey.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 28, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Symbols traded today: SPY, QQQ, both with one day remaining until expiration.

SPY short Iron Fly

LOT:	15	ENTRY DATE:	11/27/2023
		EXIT DATE:	11/28/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 1.35	$ 1.29	$ 0.06	4.7%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 455.16	$ 453.92	$ 1.24	$0.00	-99%
Impllied Volatility Rate	7.8	8.8	-1.0	1.0
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	457.00	78.0%	21
Break-even	456.35	64.0%	35.5
Short	455.00	50.0%	50
Puts
Short	455.00	50.0%	50
Break-even	454.35	64.6%	35.5
Long	453.00	79.2%	21

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	135.00
Risk	65.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.5

---

QQQ short Iron Fly

LOT:	7	ENTRY DATE:	11/27/2023
		EXIT DATE:	11/28/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 1.53	$ 1.41	$ 0.12	8.5%	3106%
METRIC			CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 390.64	$ 388.75	$ 1.89	-0.48%	-177%
Impllied Volatility Rate	4.8	5.9	-1.1	1.1
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	392.00	70.0%	31
Break-even	391.53	63.0%	37.5
Short	390.00	56.0%	44
Puts
Short	390.00	56.0%	44
Break-even	389.53	67.0%	33.5
Long	388.00	78.0%	23

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	153.00
Risk	47.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.3

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 27, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 stayed within the 4550s to 4570s, perhaps a result of traders waiting for the big early-morning report days of the week: A GDP revision on Tuesday and PCE inflation numbers, part of the GDP, on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Meanwhile, this morning’s analysis stands. I’ve updated the lower, long-term chart.

1 p.m. New York time

SPY, QQQ entry 1DTE. I’ve entered very short term position positions on SPY and QQQ, one day before expiration, and have posted analyses of the trades.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened in the 4560s when trading resumed overnight, fell into the 4550s, and then rose again into the 4560s. The price remained below the peak of the ongoing 4th-wave upward correction, 4580.50 on November 23.

What does it mean? The question, as always in the past week, is whether that most recent peak is the end of the first subwave of the correction, wave A, or whether their is a bit more upside left. Under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, the correction has an upper limit of 4634.50, the end of the preceding 1st wave on July 27, so if there is more upside to the upward correction, it’s not a lot, especially when considering that the upper limit will apply also to the third and final subwave of the correction, wave C.

From this point I’ll use the Elliott wave nomenlature that appears on the chart: A wave number followed by a degree number showing the wave’s position within the fractal hierarchy of the chart as the number of degrees below (in this case) the intermediate degree, which is presently in wave 5{-0}, beginning in December 2018.

The November 23 peak was the end of wave 3{-8}, six degrees below wave 4{-3}, which is the correction, and A{-4}, the first subwave of the correction. A shallow correction wave 4{-8}, followed, bringing the price down to the end of wave A{-9}. Rising wave B{-9} is now underway and will be followed by falling wave C{-9}, the final subwave of wave 4{-8}.

Wave 5{-8} will follow. And this is where things get interesting. Wave 5{-8} is a subwave of a stack of 5th waves reaching up to wave 5{-5}, the final subwave of the A wave, which in turn is the first wave of the correction. So when wave 5{-8} reaches its end, it will also be the end of all of those 5th waves in the stack, and the end of wave A{-4}.

The declining middle wave of the correction will follow, wave B{-4}. Wave A{-4} will end up with five subwaves, and so is taking the form of a Zigzag. The B wave in a Zigzag typically retraces 38% to 79% of the preceding A wave, which began on October 27 from 4122.25 and when finished, will have taken more than a month to reach completion. We have some downward trending weeks ahead of us.

Here is a close-up chart showing wave 5{-8} a half an hour before the opening bell.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9 a.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

What are the alternatives? At the higher level, we have two alternatives, each of almost equal likelihood.

• Scenario #1: Rising wave A ended continues to work through it’s 5th and final wave, or
• Scenario #2: Rising wave A ended on November 22 and falling wave B has begun.

The small-wave count described above lends a bit more weight to Scenario #1, and that’s what I’ve used in the charts as my principal analysis.

The chart below shows wave A{-4} in its entirely so far.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• Lower still, two scenarios of equal probability:
  • Scenario #1:
    • Within wave 4{-3}, wave A{-4} continues.
    • Further down the list, wave 5{-5}, 6{-5}, 7{-5} and 8{-5} are underway and nearing completion.
  • Scenario #2:
    • Wave A{-4} ended on November 22 and wave B{-4} began its downward trek.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 27, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

12:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell a bit further during the session, into the 4560s. This morning’s analysis stands. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures remained in a narrow range overnight, in the 4560s and 4570s, as trading resumed after the Thanksgiving Holiday in the United States. Today’s session will be shortened; the closing bell will sound at 1 p.m. New York time.

What does it mean? Prices in post-holiday shortened sessions tend to go nowhere, and so far today’s chart is no exception to that tendency.

The November 22 high, 4580.50, was the peak so far of the upward correction that began on October 27. It leaves in place the question that has been with us all week: Is the latest peak the end of the initial subwave, wave A, within the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27? Or does the correction have bit higher to go?

In Elliott wave terms, the ambiguity cab be phrased as two scenarios, each of equal likelihood:

• Scenario #1: Rising wave A ended continues to work through it’s 5th and final wave, or
• Scenario #2: Rising wave A ended on November 22 and falling wave B has begun.

What are the alternatives? And those two scenarios encompass the principal analysis and the alternative. The problem is, we don’t yet know which is which.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• Lower still, two scenarios of equal probability:
  • Scenario #1:
    • Within wave 4{-3}, wave A{-4} continues.
    • Further down the list, wave 5{-5}, 6{-5}, 7{-5} and 8{-5} are underway and nearing completion.
  • Scenario #2:
    • Wave A{-4} ended on November 22 and wave B{-4} began its downward trek.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 24, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 4580.50 and then retreated slightly, to the 4550s. The high meets all of the requirements of an end to the A wave within the upward correction that began on October 27. However, it’s not necessarily the end.

So we’re back to two scenarios of equal likelihood. Within the upward correction, either…

• Scenario #1: Rising wave A ended continues to work through it’s 5th and final wave, or
• Scenario #2: Rising wave A ended on November 22 and falling wave B has begun.

I’ve updated the chart, retaining Scenario #1 as the principal analysis.

12:20 p.m New York time

Trading the rest of the week. The QQQ position closed today will be my last trade of the week. I’m reluctant to hold the 1DTE positions longer than overnight, and certainly not through Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day market holiday. So my next in-trade will be on Monday, November 27.

12:10 p.m. New York time

QQQ Iron Fly exit. I’ve exited my Iron Fly position on QQQ for a 1.3% loss and have updated the trade analysis with full results.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight and reached into the 4570s as the opening bell sounded. The price moved beyond the November 20 high, 4571.

What does it mean? The overnight rise is the 5th and final wave of a low-degree movement that began on November 16. That small wave, 5{-8} on the chart, will when complete will also be the end of its parent 5th waves three levels higher in the fractal structure of the chart: Waves 5{-7}, 5{-6} and 5{-5} on the chart. And when those four levels of 5th waves are complete, then the first subwave of the upward correction, the A wave, will have reached its end, and the middle wave B will begin.

The upward correction is a 4th wave, wave 4{-3} on the chart, the next-to-the-last wave within a downtrending 3rd wave that began on July 27, wave 3{-2} on the chart.

Within the 4th wave correction, wave A has five subwaves, meaning that the correction is taking the form of a Zigzag. A constraint on 4th waves is that they never move beyond the start of the preceding 1st wave, 4634.50 in this case.

The B wave of a Zigzag will generally retrace 38% to 79% of the preceding A wave. We’ll be able to calculate that range once we know the endpoint of wave A.

What are the alternatives? None at present. The next ambiguity will come at the next peak: Is wave A complete, or is there a bit more upside remaining.

Afternoon addition: As indeed it did. See “Half an hour before the closing bell”, above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses, updated to coincide with this afternoon’s analysis.

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• Lower still, two scenarios of equal probability:
  • Scenario #1:
    • Within wave 4{-3}, wave A{-4} continues.
    • Further down the list, wave 5{-5}, 6{-5}, 7{-5} and 8{-5} are underway and nearing completion.
  • Scenario #2:
    • Wave A{-4} ended on November 22 and wave B{-4} began its downward trek.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 22, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.