3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching the 4590s. Wave A continues, within the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27. I’ve updated the chart.

1:05 p.m. New York time

Trades. I exited my two short Iron Fly options positions, one day after entry. SPY produced a 37.3% profit, and QQQ, an 18.6% profit. I’ve updated the trade analyses with results.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined to the 4540s overnight, rising into the 4570s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? The overnight low, 4548.75, is the minimum price reached so far since the December 1 peak, slightly above the pre-peak low, 4544.75.

Since December 1, the price has completed two Elliott subwaves and is now on its third.

All of this is consistent with the first subwave — the A wave — of the upward correction that began on October 27 having ended on December 1, and the middle subwave — the B wave — having begun. The B wave will have three subwaves.

It’s also consistent with the A wave still being underway and nearing its end.

What are the alternatives? So, two alternatives of equal likelihood. I’m staying with the A wave scenario on the chart. A bit more of a decline and I’ll switch to the B-wave scenario.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waves, down to wave 5{-8}.
• Within wave 5{-8}, declining wave 4{-9} is underway. It will be followed by rising wave 5{-9}.
• When wave 5{-9} is complete, it will cascade up the fractal structure, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on December 1 and wave B{-4} is underway.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 7, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Symbols traded today: Short Iron Fly positions on QQQ and SPY.

I entered the positions on December 6, one day before expiration (1DTE), and exited on December 7, expiration day.

QQQ short Iron Fly

LOT:	10	ENTRY DATE:	12/6/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/7/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.55	$ 2.15	$ 0.40	18.6%	6753%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 386.42	$ 388.04	$ (1.62)	$0.00	153%
Impllied Volatility Rate	10.6	11.1	-0.5	0.5
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	391.00	88.0%	13
Break-even	389.55	71.5%	29
Short	387.00	55.0%	45
Puts
Short	387.00	56.0%	44
Break-even	384.55	72.0%	28
Long	382.00	88.0%	12

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	255.00
Risk	195.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.8

---

SPY short Iron Fly

LOT:	18	ENTRY DATE:	12/6/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/7/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.28	$ 1.66	$ 0.62	37.3%	13558%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 456.14	$ 456.67	$ (0.53)	$0.00	42%
Impllied Volatility Rate	8.8	10.3	-1.5	1.5
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	461.00	90.0%	10
Break-even	459.28	69.5%	30.5
Short	457.00	49.0%	51
Puts
Short	457.00	49.0%	52
Break-even	454.28	66.5%	34
Long	452.00	84.0%	16

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	228.00
Risk	222.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	1.0

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 6, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached session high of 4598.50 at the opening bell and then fell back to the 4550s as the day progressed. This morning’s analysis, with all of its uncertainties, stands unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

2:40 p.m. New York time

Trades. I’ve entered two short Iron Fly options positions, on QQQ and SPY, one day before expiration and have posted analyses of the trades.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly in the first two hours of overnight trading and then settled into a sideways pattern, remaining there until the release, an hour before the opening bell, of the ADP National Employment Report, a private sector metric that provides a sneak preview of the government’s jobs numbers, which will be out on Friday.

The price rise was small — only about 10 points — but sharp, taking only three minutes to set an overnight peak, 4595, before dropping back slightly and then reversing, moving a few points higher.

What does it mean? Often an economic report can be the starting pistol for a market price to begin an Elliott Wave Theory push higher or lower. This morning’s report proved to not be a starting pistol but more a momentary leap of joy before the price continued slogging along its ambiguous path.

The S&P 500 is in the initial subwave of a 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27, a rising A wave. Or, that wave ended on December 1 at 4607.73 and the middle subwave, a falling B wave, is underway.

Traders’ response to the ADP employment statistics did nothing to suggest a consensus among traders as to the proper direction for the market.

What are the alternatives? The two possible interpretations are of equal likelihood. I chose the A-wave hypothesis for the chart because is was the status quo going into the present period of ambiguity, and nothing has occurred to change that assessment.

If the price moves below the low point of the small-degree rise that began on November 30 from 4544.75, I’ll consider switching to the wave B scenario.

If it rises above the December 1 high of 4607.75, then I’ll consider wave A to still be unambiguously underway.

If it rises past the beginning of the 1st wave that opened the larger downtrend of which the correction is a part, then I shall toss out both scenarios and rework the analysis entirely. The level that will trigger a reanalysis is 4634.50, reached on July 27.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waves, down to wave 5{-8}.
• Within wave 5{-8}, declining wave 4{-9} is underway. It will be followed by rising wave 5{-9}.
• When wave 5{-9} is complete, it will cascade up the fractal structure, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on December 1 and wave B{-4} is underway.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 6, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York Time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Another sideways session for the S&P 500 futures, meandering like a drunken river between the 4550s and the 4580s. This morning’s analysis stands unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

2:45 p.m. New York time

Trades. I exited two 1DTE options Iron Fly positions, QQQ for a 2.6% profit and SPY for a 22.2% profit, and have updated the trade analyses with results.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from the 4570s to the 4550s and then rose slightly.

What does it mean? The 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 27 continues. The question is whether it’s initial internal subwave, the A wave, is still underway, or if the middle subwave, the B wave, began on December 1.

I’m tracking the chart at a fairly low level, four levels below the A subwave. That low level wave is now a 5th wave, the final wave of the trend. When it is complete, it will cascade up the four levels — all 5th waves — and also be the end of the A wave.

At this point I consider the two analyses to be of equal likelihood. I’ve stuck with the A-wave scenario for the chart because I tend not to change an analysis until I have a reason to. If the price moves below the low point of the low-level 4th wave, 4544.75, then I’ll make the switch to the B-wave scenario.

Meanwhile, the A-wave scenario is the principal analysis…

What are the alternatives? … and the B-wave scenario is the alternative.

If the B-wave is indeed underway, how low is it likely to go? We know that wave A had five subwaves, which means the correction is taking the form of a Zigzag. The B wave of a Zigzag tends to retrace 38% to 79% of the preceding A wave.

The A wave began at 4122.25. If the A wave ended on December 1 at 4607.75, then it covered 485.50 points.

A 38% retracement would carry the B wave down to 4423.60. A 79% retracement would carry the B wave down to 4224.21.

So if this 4th-wave correction is typical, the low-level 4th wave low on November 30, 4544.75, is still a bit more than 130 points shy of reaching the minimum typical correction, 4423.60.

I’ve shown the high and low typical retracement levels on the chart in blue.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waves, down to wave 5{-8}.
• Within wave 5{-8}, declining wave 4{-9} is underway. It will be followed by rising wave 5{-9}.
• When wave 5{-9} is complete, it will cascade up the fractal structure, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on December 1 and wave B{-4} is underway.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 5, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Symbols traded today: QQQ and SPY, both entered one day to expiration (1DTE)

QQQ short Iron Fly

LOT:	9	ENTRY DATE:	12/4/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/5/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.34	$ 2.28	$ 0.06	2.6%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 385.92	$ 384.36	$ 1.56	$0.00	-148%
Impllied Volatility Rate	12.3	13.3	-1.0	1.0
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	390.00	85.0%	14
Break-even	388.34	67.5%	31.5
Short	386.00	50.0%	49
Puts
Short	386.00	50.0%	51
Break-even	384.34	67.5%	33
Long	382.00	85.0%	15

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	234.00
Risk	166.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.7

---

SPY short Iron Fly

LOT:	17	ENTRY DATE:	12/4/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/5/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.31	$ 1.89	$ 0.42	22.2%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 456.57	$ 455.39	$ 1.18	$0.00	-94%
Impllied Volatility Rate	10.8	12.0	-1.2	1.2
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	461.00	92.0%	9
Break-even	458.31	74.5%	26
Short	456.00	57.0%	43
Puts
Short	456.00	58.0%	43
Break-even	454.31	74.0%	26
Long	452.00	90.0%	9

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	231.00
Risk	219.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.9

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 4, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to the 4550s during the session and then returned to the 4570s. The price stayed within the range of the present small final wave — wave 5{-8} on the chart — whose end will trigger the end of the much larger A wave within the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27. This morning’s analysis is unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

2:10 p.m. New York time

Trades. I’ve entered short Iron Fly positions on QQQ and DTE, each with one day to expiration (1DTE), and have posted an analysis of the trades.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined in a gentle slope after trading resumed overnight, a calm start to a week of potential economic drama, picking up the pace as the opening bell approached.

The ADP sneak preview of employment will be released on Wednesday and the government’s full November employment situation report on Friday, each before the opening bell. There’s also a possibility — not a certainty — that the most sensitive metric of a business downturn, the Sahm Rule, will signal on Friday that a recession is already underway.

The trigger point is 0.50. The last Sahm update, a month ago when the October employment numbers were published, came in at 0.33. The Sahm metric has been backtested to March 1949. From then to the present, the Sahm Rule has moved to 0.33 or above 14 times, and only once, in 1951, did a recession fail to follow.

No metric is perfect, but the Sahm Rule has an excellent record of calling a recession within the first three months after it began

What does it mean? On the chart, the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27 is underway and is very close to the end of its initial subwave, the A wave. The smallest level that I’m tracking is in its 4th wave, with a 5th wave yet to come. When it is complete, the completion will cascade up four levels of increasingly larger 5th waves, ending them and the A wave.

A declining B wave will follow. If it’s typical, it will retrace 38% to 79% of the preceding A wave.

It is a firm rule of Elliott Wave Theory that a Zigzag correction like this correction will remain below the starting point of the preceding 1st wave, 4634.50. Any move above that level means something else is going on and the chart will be reanalyzed in light of that new information.

What are the alternatives? Of equal likelihood, the small 4th wave may have already ended and the December 1 peak, 4607.75, may have been the end of the 5th wave. Under this scenario, wave B began on December 1. The further the price falls, the more likely this scenario becomes.

In either case. Elliott wave patterns are independent of events. The timing of the patterns, on the other hand, is often influenced by events. If the two employment reports come in worse than expected, or if the Sahm Rule is triggered, indicating a recession is underway, then that could be sufficient to send the B wave tumbling down.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waves, down to wave 5{-8}.
• Within wave 5{-8}, declining wave 4{-9} is underway. It will be followed by rising wave 5{-9}.
• When wave 5{-9} is complete, it will cascade up the fractal structure, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on December 1 and wave B{-4} is underway.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 4, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures crept to a new high during the session, lending credence to this morning’s principal analysis. Wave A within the upward 4th-wave correction that began on October 27 continues. Unless, of course, the new peak is the end of wave A and the beginning of wave B. I’ve updated the chart.

12:05 p.m. New York time

Trades. I exited three positions during the first five minutes of the session, all of them 1DTE trades on expiration day: SPY, QQQ and AAPL. The outcome of the three taken together was a half a percent loss. SPY and QQQ were profitable, APPL produced a loss. I’ve updated the trade analyses with full results.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways for much of the night, then rose to the 4580s and fell to the 4560s.

What does it mean? In the discussion that follows,, the subscripts in curly brackets, both here and on the chart, indicate the waves position within the fractal structure in relation to the Intermediate degree, {0}.

The first subwave, an A wave, within the 4th wave upward correction that began on October 27 continues to play its end game. I count the A wave as being in its 5th and final subwave, from one degree lower in the fractal structure of the chart to four degrees lower. When the smallest of these, wave 5{-8} in the Elliott wave nomenclature, reaches its end, it will cascade up the structure, also ending wave 5{-5} and wave A{-4} within the upward correction, wave 4{-3}.

The October 29 peak was the highest point so far of the 4th-wave upward correction and may have ended the A wave and the smaller 5th waves within it. Or not. A rise above that peak, 4597, will mean that the 5th wave is still underway. A decisive decline will mean that wave A ended at that peak and declining wave B has begun. A final subwave, rising wave C, will complete the correction and a downtrending 5th wave will follow.

What are the alternatives? I’ve chosen to retain the smaller 5th waves and their parent, wave A, as still being underway for my principal analysis., relegating the scenario that sees wave A ending at the November 29 high and wave B as being underway to alternative status.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waes, down to wave 5{-8}. When the smallest of the 5th waves is complete, it will cascade up, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on November 29 and wave B{-4} began its downward journey.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 1, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Symbols traded today: SPY, QQQ and AAPL

I entered new positions, one day before expiration, into SPY and QQQ, which have options expiring every day, and into AAPL, whose options expire once a week on Fridays.

SPY short Iron Fly

LOT:	16	ENTRY DATE:	11/30/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/1/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.06	$ 2.00	$ 0.06	3.0%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 453.60	$ 455.48	$ (1.88)	$0.00	151%
Impllied Volatility Rate	12.4	9.7	2.7	-2.7
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	457.00	81.0%	19
Break-even	456.06	67.0%	33
Short	454.00	53.0%	47
Puts
Short	454.00	46.0%	52
Break-even	453.06	61.0%	37.5
Long	451.00	76.0%	23

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	206.00
Risk	94.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.5

---

QQQ short Iron Fly

LOT:	8	ENTRY DATE:	11/30/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/1/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 2.32	$ 2.11	$ 0.21	10.0%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 386.36	$ 387.32	$ (0.96)	$0.00	91%
Impllied Volatility Rate	9.4	9.3	0.1	-0.1
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	390.00	73.0%	27
Break-even	388.32	59.5%	40.5
Short	386.00	46.0%	54
Puts
Short	386.00	46.0%	55
Break-even	384.82	66.0%	34.5
Long	382.50	86.0%	14

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	232.00
Risk	143.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.6

---

AAPL short Iron Fly

LOT:	1	ENTRY DATE:	11/30/2023
		EXIT DATE:	12/1/2023
		DAYS HELD:	1

Entry and Exit

METRIC	CREDIT	DEBIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Options premium	$ 4.09	$ 4.40	$ (0.31)	-7.0%	0%
METRIC	ENTRY	EXIT	CHANGE	CHANGE %	ANNUALIZED CHANGE %
Stock price	$ 188.31	$ 190.88	$ (2.57)	$0.01	498%
Impllied Volatility Rate	3.8	3.4	0.4	-0.4
Days to expiration	1	0

The structure of the position

STRUCTURE	STRIKE	ODDS EXPIRE OTM	DELTA
Calls
Long	195.00	84.0%	15
Break-even	191.59	64.0%	35
Short	187.50	44.0%	55
Puts
Short	187.50	57.0%	44
Break-even	186.59	69.0%	32
Long	182.50	81.0%	20

Risk and Reward

Per contract:
Reward	409.00
Risk	216.00
R/R Ratio (n:1)	0.5

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 30, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures ranged from the 4540s to the 4507s. The decline from the November 29 peak was, in today’s session, either in a 4th-wave correction or a 2nd-wave correction within the 3rd wave one degree smaller. This morning’s analysis is unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

2:30 p.m. New York time

Trades. I entered three new positions today: Short Iron Fly options spreads that expire the next day; 1DTE trades in the jargon. Two have options with daily expirations: SPY and QQQ. The third is one of a large number of options that expire weekly, on Fridays, and so offer 1DTE trading opportunities only on Thursday. I’ve posted the trade analyses.

Also, two days late, I updated my November 27 trade analyses of SPY and QQQ with the next days exit and results.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways for much of the night, rising slightly as the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation stats drew near. The PCE release resulted in a 7-point whipsaw that ended up about where it had begun. The price then rose a bit higher, to 4578.25, and then retreated to the 4560s.

What does it mean? The price overnight remained below the most recent high, 4597 on Wednesday, as the upward 4th-wave correction that began on October 27 continues to work through its first subwave, the A wave. That initial wave is in its 5th and final subwave. It will be followed by declning wave B, which typically will retrace 38% to 79% of the A wave.

What are the alternatives? Any high at this point could be the end of wave A, or not. It’s possible that Wednesday’s peak was the end of the 5th and final subwave within wave A, and that wave B has begun.

The Chart. The chart shows the Elliott Wave numbers and a subscript, in curly brackets, designating the degree of each wave, which is the relative size of the wave within the fractal structure that is the stock price chart.

The upward correction is wave 4{-3}. The smallest degree I’m tracking — and the current wave on the chart — is wave 5{-8}. Between the two are three 5th waves, each one degree larger, and the initial subwave of the correction, wave A{-5}. When wave 5{-8} is complete, it will cascade up the degrees, also marking the end of the 5th waves and of wave A{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waes, down to wave 5{-8}. When the smallest of the 5th waves is complete, it will cascade up, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on November 29 and wave B{-4} began its downward journey..

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 30, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked at 4597 during the session and then pulled back into the 4550s. The price remains above the November 28 low, 4547, which was the start of the present rise into the 4590s.

This morning’s analysis stands unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching a new high for the present upward correction.

What does it mean? The correction, a 4th wave, began on October 22., and the new high resolves the conundrum that has dominated the analysis since last week: Has the first subwave of the correction, wave A, ended or not?

The answer is that wave A is still underway. Under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, no subwave of the correction can move above the starting point of the preceding 1st wave, which was 4634.50 on July 27. The 5th and final subwave within the correction has reached the low 4590s so far and so has room for a further rise. Although, not a lot, less than 45 points.

After wave A is complete, the middle subwave of the correction, wave B, will begin, and if it is typical it will retrace 38% to 79% of wave A. That’s a tendency, not a hard rule.

The present rise began on November 28 from 4547 and is part of a 5th subwave several degrees down within wave A. While solving a conundrum, the rise simultaneously reinstates the conundrum: Any peak, including the most recent, could be the end of the present rise and also the end of wave A.

What are the alternatives? Any pullback from the high in theory means that wave B may have already begun. Until there’s a stronger pullback to the downside, the weight of evidence favors the principal analysis: Wave A is still underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend, wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, an upward correction, wave 4{-3}, began on October 27.
• The initial wave of the correction, wave A{-4}, continues.
• Wave A{-4} has reached its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5} and a series of smaller 5th waes, down to wave 5{-8}. When the smallest of the 5th waves is complete, it will cascade up, also ending wave 5{-5} and its parent, wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• Wave A{-4} ended on November 29 and wave B{-4} began its downward journey..

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)
• 4{-3} Minuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 10/27/2023, 4122.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 29, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.