3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 4434.50 early in the session and then rose slightly, barely touching the 4460s.

This morning’s analysis is unchanged. A small upward correction within a larger downtrend continues. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures felll overnight, reaching in the 4430s.

What does it mean? The 3rd wave downtrend that began September 1 continues and is in its 1st subwave, which in turn is in its 5th and final subwave. That final subwave will complete the initial downward leg of the trend.

An upward correction, a 2nd wave, will follow, and then a declining 3rd wave within the larger 3rd wave of September 2 that will carry the price much lower.

All of this is happening with a still larger 3rd wave, which began on July 27. Third waves are typically the most powerful of the three trending subwaves within a trend, and I would expect a 3rd within a 3rd with a 3rds — a triple 3rd — to be impressive.

What are the alternatives? None at present. Ambiguities will soon develop, I’m sure, as they always do.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began.
• Wave 3{-3}, a powerful downtrend, began on September 1 and is in its first subwave, wave 1{-4}.
• Wave 1{-4} is in its 5th and final subwave, wave 5{-5}, which began on September 6.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 7, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have fallen during the session, reaching below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A major 3rd wave downtrend began on September 1, from 4547.75. It will carry the price down at least 200 points from the downtrend’s beginning to the beginning of the preceding 2nd wave, and most likely by a multiple of that amount.

Because of the depth and speed of the decline so far, I’ve eliminated the complex correction scenario, discussed below, from my analysis.

In Elliott wave terminology, wave 3{-3} is underway. It is part of a larger downtrend, wave 3{-2}, that began on July 27.

I’ve updated the chart and annotated this morning’s “What does Elliott Wave Theory say?” section, below.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching into the 4480s, slightly below the 50% retracement level.

What does it mean? The decline lends credence to the corrective pattern that began on August 18 having ended on September 1, above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The decline has completed three waves down.

In question is the nature of the correction. Is it a simple correction, containing one corrective pattern? If so, then the upward correction has ended and a powerful downtrend is underway. Or is it a compound correction, that will eventually contain two or three corrective patterns? If so, then the decline is a wave that will connect the just completed first corrective pattern and a future second corrective pattern.

A connector wave has three subwaves, and the decline since September 1 can be counted as having traced three waves (or five, it’s not entirely clear). If the price reverses and returns to the neighborhood of the September 1 peak, 4547.78, then a compound correction is underway. Assuming three subwaves have been completed, If it continues downward, adding a fourth and five subwave, then the downtrend has begun.

I’ve chosen to mark the chart in line with the simple correction scenario, since this correction is a 2nd wave, and simple patterns are more common in that wave position. The retracement ladder is shown on the chart in red.

What are the alternatives? None beyond the choice outlined above. The decline is sufficient to remove yesterday’s alternative, that the first corrective pattern is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began.
• Two possibilities of nearly equal probability: [Afternoon analysis: Only one scenario remains.]
  • The correction ended on September 1.
    • Wave 3{-3}, a powerful downtrend, began on September 1 and is taking its first tentative steps.
  • The correction continues. [Eliminated in the afternoon analysis.]
    • Wave 2{-3} is still underway and is taking a compound form.
    • Declining wave X{-4}, now underway, will connect the first corrective patternwith a second 1.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 6, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traced a sideways course during the session, remaining mostly between 4500 and 4520.

The movement was an upward correction of very low degree during the tentative beginning of a downtrend that began on September 1. There is a competing interpretation, outlined this morning, that also has a strong probability, that the upward correction that began on August 18 is taking a compound form and the downtrend has not yet begun.

Also, if the price moves up above 4547.75, the beginning of the downtrend in my principal analysis, then the upward correction is still underway and the downtrend lies in the future.

There is a boatload of ambiguity in this chart, which is almost always the case during a transition from correction to trending.

This morning’s analysis stands. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined after trading resumed overnight, remaining below the September 1 high, 4547.75.

What does it mean? The fall took the price to within 10 points of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The peak in the upward correction that began on August 18 was 20 points above the 61.8% retracement level.

The decline was decisive, in that it consists of three waves, with the 3rd wave being the longest. That is potentially the pattern of a trending wave, and if that’s what it is, then the rising 4th wave, now underway, will be followed by a declining 5th wave that will complete the pattern.

That evidence taken together has persuaded me that the most probable interpretation is that the September 1 peak, 4547.75, was the end of wave C{-4}, the final subwave of the corrective pattern within the upward correction, wave 2{-3}. The decline that followed is an early stage of wave 3{-3}, a powerful downtrend that will eventually carry the price below the start of the upward correction, 4350, and most likely well below that level.

It’s also possible that wave 2{-3} is taking the form of a compound correction, containing two or three corrective patterns. If that’s what’s happening then the decline is wave X{-4}, a wave connecting the first corrective pattern with the future second corrective pattern. Wave X{-4} will remaining above the correction’s starting price, 4350.

I’ve marked the chart based on the scenario that sees 4547.756 as the end of wave 2{-3}, but have indicated the points of ambiguity: Wave 2{-3}, complete or maybe not, and the decline, wave 3{-3} or wave X{-4}.

What are the alternatives? It remains possible that the corrective pattern is not yet complete, that the price will reverse and move above the 4547.75 peak. If that happens, then wave 2{-3} and its subwave, wave C{-4}, are still underway, and wave 3{-3} or wave X{-4} has not yet begun.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis: The corrective pattern has ended.

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began.
• Two possibilities of nearly equal probability:
  • The corrective pattern ended on September 1.
    • Wave 3{-3}, a powerful downtrend, began on September 1 and is taking its first tentative steps.
  • The corrective pattern continues.
    • Wave 2{-3} is still underway and is taking a compound form.
    • Declining wave X{-4}, now underway, will connect the first corrective patternwith a second 1.

Alternative: The corrective pattern is underway.

• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.
• Within rising wave C{-4}, rising wave E{-5} is underway.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 5, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

10:25 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose when trading resumed overnight, remaining below the September 1 peak, 4547.75. There will be no trading session on the U.S. exchanges today as markets are closed for a holiday. The exchanges will resume trading on Tuesday, September 5.

What does it mean? The fact that the September 1 high remains intact means that it may in fact be the end of the upward correction that began on August 18, or the end of the first corrective pattern within a compound correction.

The price is only slightly below that high, by about 30 to 40 points, and so it’s also possible that the final leg of the corrective pattern, and perhaps of the upward correction, is still underway. This is the scenario that I’m using in labeling the chart.

What are the alternatives? None beyond the possibilities listed above, all roughly of equal probability.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10:25 a.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began..
• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.
• Within rising wave C{-4}, rising wave E{-5} is underway.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 4, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Monday: A market holiday. Monday is a market holiday in the U.S., in observation of Labor Day. Markets in the other global centers, London and Tokyo, will be open for business.

Typically on holidays, the S&P 500 futures will trade when overseas markets are active. I’ll keep an eye on it and post a Trader’s Notebook if I see anything of interest.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have fallen from the session peak, 4547.75, to slightly below 4510.

This morning’s analysis is unchanged The 4547.75 peak could be the end of the upward correction that began on August 18, or of the first corrective pattern within a compound correction. Or not. If the peak is the end of the correction, then the subsequent decline is a new downtrend, and if it is the end of the corrective pattern in an ongoing compound correction, then the decline is a connector between the first corrective pattern and a future second corrective pattern.

I’ve updated the chart, which reflects the scenario that the upward corretion is still underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the 4530s into the 4540s after the employment situation report was released.

What does it mean? The rise reached a new high within the upward correction that began on August 18, confirming that the correction, wave 2{-2} on the chart, is still underway. However, the price remained only slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which rounds to 4526, as the final wave of the corrective pattern plays out its end game.

At this point, any new high could be the end of the corrective pattern, or it could be a point along a continuing rise. The next Fibonacci retracement level is a 78.6% retracement, which rounds to 4574.

When the corrective pattern is complete, it will either be the end of the correction, to be followed by a powerful downtrend that will carry the price below 4350 and likely significantly below that level, or it will be the end of the first corrective pattern within a compound correction and will be followed by a connecting wave and then a second corrective pattern.

What are the alternatives? None beyond the possibilities listed above, all roughly of equal probability.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began..
• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.
• Within rising wave C{-4}, rising wave E{-5} is underway.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 1, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traced a downward movement during the session, from the session high, 4541.25, to a low of 4515, that resembles the first three waves of a five-wave trend. It was followed by an upward movement that fits the pattern of a 4th-wave upward correction.

While both extremes are close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the five-wave pattern is a trend and, perhaps, a sign that the price is breaking free from that level and starting the next leg of its journey.

What it means is still up in the air. The trend is of a small degree, taking only a few hours to reach completion. It could be a subwave within the final wave of the upward correction, it could be the start of a connecting wave that will lead to a second corrective pattern within the correction, or the correction may have ended at the peak, 4541.25, and the five waves may be the tentative first steps in what will be a powerful downtrend.

Time will answer the questions. We’re not there yet.

Here is a chart of the futures today showing the waves.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:25 p.m., 1-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Overnight, the S&P 500 E-mini futures stayed close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (in red on the chart), remaining in the 4520s and 45430s, then rose to an overnight 4541.25 peak as an inflation indicator, Personal Income and Outlays, was released, from which it quickly reteated.

What does it mean? The overnight movement left unresolved the two open questions about the chart: First, is the upward corrective pattern that began on August 18 still underway, or has it reached its end? And second, if the corrective pattern has ended, then has the overall correction, a 2nd wave, also ended, or will it be a compound correction, containing two or three corrective patterns?

For the chart, I’ve chosen labels consistent with the upward correction wave 2{-3}, still being underway. But all of the possibilities are of equal likelihood at this point.

What are the alternatives? None at present, beyond the two questions listed above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began..
• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.
• Within rising wave C{-4}, rising wave E{-5} is underway.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 31, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures’ upward correction has crashed against the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which rounds to a price of 4526, and remains stuck there, so far bouncing like a ball against a wall, unable to resume its rise.

If the price breaks through, the next Fibonacci resistance level is 78.6%, at a price that rounds to 4574.

If it fails to break through, then the corrective pattern will be complete and the next step will be one of those described this morning, in the “What does it mean?” section, below.

I’ve update the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose into the 4110s overnight, retreated slightly, and then rose higher as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? The third and final wave of the upward correction that began on August 18 continued, and that final wave is near its end. The final wave has met all of the criteria that are typical of such waves. It is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a common reversal point. (The Fibonacci retracement ladder is shown on the chart in red.)

Either the end of that wave will also be the end of the upward correction and a powerful downtrend, wave 3{-3}, will begin, or the correction will take a compound form, with the end of the first corrective pattern being followed by a declining connector wave and then a second corrective pattern.

What are the alternatives?

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began..
• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.
• Within rising wave C{-4}, rising wave E{-5} is underway.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 30, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose sharply during the session, from the 4440s at the open to slightly above 4500 as the closing bell approached.

The rise confirms that the last subwave, wave C{-4}, within the upward correction that began on August 18, wave 2{-3}, is now in its final subwave, wave E{-5}.

The wave C{-4} rise has taken the correction to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, just above the end point of the preceding A wave, meeting one criterion for the typical behavior of a C wave in this correction.

There are two possibilities for what happens after the end of wave C{-4}: Either the end of that wave will also be the end of the upward correction and a powerful downtrend, wave 3{-3}, will begin, or the correction will take a compound form, with the end of the first corrective pattern being followed by a declining connector wave and then a second corrective pattern.

Also, given the amount of the retracement, I’m abandoning the alternative analysis from this morning and the past few days.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight, from a high in the 4450s down into the 4430s.

What does it mean? The final wave of the corrective pattern that began on August 18 is nearings its end. The 4th of five subwaves within t is now underway, a downward correction two degrees smaller than the upward correction that envelopes it.

The 4th wave downward correction will be followed by a final push upward that will complete the larger corrective pattern, and perhaps the correction itself.

The 4th wave is labeled wave D{-5} on the chart, a subwave of wave C{-4} within an upward correction, wave 2{-3}.

The upward push following wave D{-5} will be wave E{-5}. How high can it go? As the final subwave, it will determine the end point of wave C{-4}. C waves tend to move beyond the starting point of the preceding A wave, 4483.50 in this case.

I’ve superimposed the Fibonacci retracement ladder on the chart in red, and a 50% retracement would be fewer than 10 points above that target.

The C wave in a Zigzag correction like wave 2{-3} often is about the same length as the preceding A wave. Wave A{-4} was 133 points long, wave C{-4} began at 4365.25, and so the endpoint under this theory would be 4498.75, which is 6.75 points above the 50% retracement level.

There is nothing in Elliott wave theory that would forbid wave C{-4} from rising higher, to the 61.8% retracement level just above 4625.75, for example. And it could come up short, ending, for example, at the 38.2% retracement level just below 4458.75.

What are the alternatives? It’s possible that the subwaves seen so far within wave 2{-2} are a degree smaller within the fractal structure of the chart. If that is the case, then the waves labeled A{-4}, B{4} and {C-4} are subwaves of wave A{-3}, the first subwave of the correction. [Note: Abandoned in the afternoon analysis. See above.]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began..
• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.
• Within rising wave C{-4}, declining wave D{-5} is underway.

Alternative analysis: [Note: Abandoned in the afternoon analysis. See above.]

• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave A{-4} is underway and is in its 3rd subwave, wave C{-5}.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 29, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures bounced from the 4420s to the 4440s several times during the session, putting on a good show but going nowhere. The pause is a correction within the rising 3rd subwave within the ongoing upward correction that has been with us since mid-August.

This morning’s analysis stands unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways in the 4410s and 4420s after trading resumed overnight, and as the opening bell approached rose into the 4430s and into the 4440s as the session began.

What does it mean? The final subwave of an upward correction that began on August 18 continues. When it is complete, it will be followed either by the resumption of the downtrend that began on July 27 or by a second corrective pattern in a compound correction.

What are the alternatives? It’s possible that the subwaves seen so far within wave 2{-2} are a degree smaller within the fractal structure of the chart. If that is the case, then the waves labeled A{-4}, B{4} and {C-4} are subwaves of wave A{-3}, the first subwave of the correction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began..
• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.

Alternative analysis:

• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave A{-4} is underway and is in its 3rd subwave, wave C{-5}.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 28, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell into the 4930s as Fed Chair Jerome Powell deliver his address at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and then reversed, rising into the 4420s as the closing bell approached.

On the chart, the whipsaw pushed the endpoint of wave B{-4} a bit lower than I had marked it this morning, and I’ve made the adjustment. Otherwise, this morning’s analysis stands.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 4370s surpassing 4400 and continuing to rise a bit more after the opening bell.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address the Fed’s annual conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming short after 10 a.m. New York time. Under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, speeches and other news events have little to do with the movements of the markets, beyond the occasional whipsaw. The analysis below is independent of the speech.

What does it mean? The rise is the 3rd and final wave of the upward corrective pattern that began on August 18. In Elliott wave terminology, the upward correction is wave 2{-3}, and the overnight rise is part of wave C{-3}.

For this analysis I’ve had to use Elliott wave and degree numbering to describe the various possibilities. See the “Reading the chart” section, below, for an explanation of the numbering system.

What are the alternatives? There are two.

Alternative #1: All one degree lower

It’s possible that the subwaves within wave 2{-2} are a degree smaller within the fractal structure of the chart. If that is the case, then the overnight rise is wave C{-4}, a subwave of wave A{-3}.

Alternative #2: One wave one degree lower

It’s also possible that the wave labeled A{-4} is underway and the subsequent decline is a subwave, wave A{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Internally, wave 3{-2} complete its first subwave, wave 1{-3}, on August 18, and wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began..
• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave C{-4} is underway.

Alternative #1: All one degree lower

• Within wave 2{-3}, rising wave A{-4} is underway and is in its 3rd subwave, wave C{-5}.

Alternative #2: One wave one degree lower

• Within wave 2{-3}, declining wave B{-4} is underway and is in its 2nd subwave, rising wave B{-5}.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 25, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.