3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour until the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to climb during the session, breaking past 7500.

Elliott Wave Theory: The waves continue as they did this morning: Wave C{-12} within wave 4{-11} — both rising — within wave C{-10} within wave 4{-9} — both falling — within wave 3{-8} within wave 1{-7} within wave 5[-6} — all rising.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 6473.75 overnight.

What does it mean?  Yesterday’s session closed with uncertainty over whether the rising wave that began on September 2 was complete or whether the declining wave had begun.

The overnight rise, when analyzed using Elliott Wave Theory, verifies that the next-to-the-last subwave within wave C{-10} is underway. The subwave is an upward corretion, wave 4{-11}, which began on September 2.

Internally, wave 4{-11} is in its final subwave, wave C{-12}, and when C{-12} and 4{-11}, are complete, downtrending wave 5{-11} will began, carrying the parent wave C{-10} and wave 4{-9} one degree higher to their end.

At that point wave 5{-9} will begin, an uptrending wave of significant size.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p,m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/28/2025, 6523 (down)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 9/2/2025, 6371.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 4, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p,m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked at 6464.25 during the session and then pulled back, setting up a common sort of conundrum in Elliott Wave Theory: Is a wave’s peak a real peak for the wave, or it just a pause in a subwave?

If it is a false peak, then rising wave 4{-11} has some upside left. That’s the principal analysis.

If it’s the true peak, then wave 4{-11} has ended the the subsequent decline is wave 5{-11}, which is still underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the 6420s to the 6460s overnight, and then declined into the 6440s.

What does it mean? After applying Elliott Wave Theory analysism I’ve concluded that the decline is the next-to-the-last subwave, wave 4{-11}, within declining wave C{-10}, the final subwave within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14.

The declining wave that follows will be the final subwave of the corrective pattern and most likely the end of wave 4{-9], which will be followed by a rising 5th wave. I’ve used the numbering system on the chart: A wave number followed by the number of degrees distance from Intermediate wave.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p,m., 30-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/28/2025, 6523 (down)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 9/2/2025, 6371.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 6371.75 and then reversed slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline is wave C of the 4th wave downward correction that began on August 15. Its session low point is 71.5 points above the 4th wave’s estimated end region.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked at 6523 on August 28 and then began a decline, picking up pace today before the opening bell and reaching into the 6300s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis shows that the peak was the end of rising wave B and the starting of declining wave C, both subwaves of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14.

Most 4th waves have three subwaves, and if this 4th wave is typical, wave C when complete will be the end of wave 4.

How low can it go? C waves are often about the same length as the preceding A wave, which would mean a probable endpoint of 6300 to 6260. Some C-waves are extended, pushing the endpoint even lower, down to around 6200.

These are estimates, with a high degree of uncertainty.

The end of wave C will be the end of wave 4 and the beginning of uptrending wave 5, which will likely carry the price back into the 6500s and perhaps into the 6600s.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/28/2025, 6523 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 2, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

Holiday ahead. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, August 1, for the Labor Day holiday. Trading will resume Monday evening for some futures, such as the S&P 500 E-mini futures that are analyzed here. The markets will begin their trading sessions on Tuesday, September 2.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell during the session reaching 6455.50 before entering a sideways fluctuation covering the 6450s to the 6470s.

Basically, there’s very little difference from what we saw after of the opening bell. Wave 4 is still underway, and within it, wave B is still underway — probably.

If the decline continues after the Labor Day holiday, then we can with confidence conclude that wave B ended on August 28, at 6523, and declining wave C, the final subwave of the 4th-wave correction, began from that point.

It’s a close call, but we’re not quite there yet.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from 6518 at yesterday’s closing bell down to 6486.75 durng the overnight session, and then resumed its rise, sharply spiking and retreating in the span of 2 minutes after the Personal Consumption Expenditures report showed inflation reaching 2.9%. The increase for some suggested that the Federal Open Market Committee was even more likely to reduce interest rates in the September meeting.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14. The correction is in its 2nd subwave, wave B.

It’s possible that wave B ended at the August 28 peak, 6523. But it’s uncertain, and until there is a greater downward movement, I’m keeping rising wave B as my principle analysis and falling wave C as my alternative analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• B{-10} (unnamed), 8/20/2025, 6162.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 29, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching 6519.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave B within a 4th-wave downward correction is underway. Wave B has continued further beyond the starting point of the preceding A wave., 6508.75. That’s OK according to the rules of Elliott Wave Theory if the correction is taking the form of a Flat. And that’s where the ambiguity lies.

A correction is a Flat when the A-wave has three subwaves. Days ago I labeled this A wave as having three subwaves. But as is so often the case, the subwaves structure lacks clarity, and if I squint, it could be labeled as having five subwaves.

If wave A has five subwaves, then the correction is taking the form of a Zigzag. And under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, no Zigzag can move beyond the starting point of Wave A. If it does, the analysis no longer matches the reality and must be redone.d

In some ways deciding how to label the correction — a necessity–is operating backwards, with the acts of wave B dictating to us what happened in the past, the nature of wave A. Rather than the past defining the future, the future is defining the past.

It’s like H.G. Wells’ time-travel book, proving that Elliott Wave Theory has a magnificant taste for literary excellence.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 6471 to 6506.75 overnight.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the overnight high so far is close to the August 14 peak, 6508.75, which was the starting point of a 4th-wave downward correction that is still underway.

The overnight peak is part of a rising B wave, the middle subwave of the correction. When wave B is complete, it will also be the beginning of the final subwave, wave C, which likely will carry the price down to the 6350s.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• B{-10} (unnamed), 8/20/2025, 6162.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 28, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reversed during the session, rising from a session low of 6472.25 to a high so far of 6502.25.

Elliott Wave Theory: This morning I discussed the risks of top calling, and the futures movement durng the session provided a fine example of such risks. The high reached during the renewed upward movement was higher than the reversal point I had labelled as the end of wave B, 6496.25, and yet remained below the starting point of wave A, 6508.75.

Assuming the 4th-wave correction is a Flat, then wave B ought to retrace nearly all of the preceding A wave, and indeed it has. In a Flat, the B wave can move beyond the start of the preceding A wave. Wave A in a Flat has three subwaves. The pattern is less tan clear.

If itt’s a Zigzag, which is less common in 4th waves, then wave A has 5 subwaves, wave B never moves beyond the start of wave A, and it tends to retrace less of the A wave than it would if the correction were a Flat.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked their way lower from the 6480s to the 6470s overnight.

What does it mean? The rise from thee 6430s to the 6480s was the econ subwave within wave C, which is the final subwave of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14. Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave C as having five subwaves altogether. The decline now begininng is declining wave 3.

Calling tops is one of the more risky activities of trading. After all, it only take a quick reversal to a new high to prove the analysis to be wrong. So the top-calling in today’s analysis has the same caveat added: But maybe not quite yet.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• B{-10} (unnamed), 8/20/2025, 6162.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 27, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peeked into the 6470s befoe withdrawing slightly during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory: The slight rise might well be the 4th subwave of wave C, the final subwave of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 15. However, it seems to be somewhat to soon for a 4th wave, given the size of other movements within the correction. Time will bring clarity to the chart labelling.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell into the 6430s early in overnight trading an thereafter traded narrowly, reaching into the 6450s at the highest.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged from the day before: The final subwave, wave C, of a three way corrective pattern, wave 4, continues.

Mostly likely wave C will be the end of the parent wave 4. Occasionally a correction will contain two or three of the three-wave corrective patterns, delaying the end of the correction overall. I’ve seen it occur most often in 4th waves, and it’s rare.

Yesterday’s afternoon analysis had an alternative, that wave B might still be underway. That reading of the chart is off the table. I have no doubt that wave C is the correct principal analysis.

Yesterday’s analysis also took a stab a estimating how low wave C will go, based on Fibonacci retracement levels. At the least it will likely decline to around 6350 — the same length as the preceding A waved — and could reach further.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/22/2025, 6496.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 26, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded within a narrow range during the session. Elliott Wave Theory: The movement is consistent with falling wave C being underway, while leaving open the possibility that wave B will continue its rise.

I think wave C has the strongest case in its favor, and assuming events play out that way, here are some estimates about how far C can fall. Often, waves A and C have about the same length, giving C a likely endpoint around 6350. Sometimes, wave C is more extensive, running a Fibonacci multiplier more than the length of A, carrying wave C down to 6260. There’s an area of clusternng between 6310 and 6350 which may encompass the end point.

Once wave C is complete, it’s likely that wave 4 will also be complete. Uptrending wave 5 will follow, carrying the uptrending parent wave 3 and the uptrending grandparent wave 1 further toward their goals.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 6490s to to the 6460s after trading resumed overnight.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that there are two possible interpretations of the chart.

One sees the August 22 peak, 6496.25, as the end of the middle subwave, wave B, of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14, and declining wave C as being underway. I’ve adopted this as my principle analysis, as reflected in the mark-up of the chart The alternative analysis sees the present, shallow decline as a subwave within still-underway wave B, which is still underway.

If the decline continues, the wave C scenario is confirmed. If the price reverses and rises to a new high, the wave B scenario is confirmed.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/22/2025, 6496.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 has peaked so far this session at 6496.25 and has stayed close to that mark.

Elliott Wave Theory: This morning’s analysis after Fed Chair Powell completed his speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming conference has stayed unchanged: The 4th-wave downtrend that began on August 14 continues. It ended its first subwave, wave A, on August 20, and simultaneously began its second subwave, wave B, which is stilll underway.

Wave A appears to have had three subwaves, although reading the waves is a bit messy. That makes it a Flat correction, meaning that the B wave is allowed under the rules to move above the starting point of the A wave, 6508.75.

If A were counted as having five subwaves, then the corrective form would be a Zigzag and if wave B were to move above the start of wave A, it would violate the rules and require a re-analysis.

My principal analysis sees wave 4 as a Flat.

Wave 4 — all three subwaves — under the rules cannot move below the start of the preceding 1st wave of the same degree. The 1st wave began on August 5 from 6313.25 and forms the precise lowest possible point of wave 4.

10:40 a.m. New York time.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of lower interest rate changes over the near term and changes in Fed policy over the longer term. The S&P 500 futures began to rise six minutes before he began speaking, reaching a session high so far to 6491.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline clarified that the first subwave of the 4th-wave downward correction, wave A, ended on August 20 at 6362.75, and rising wave B is now underway.

Fibonacci Retracement calculations suggest wave B may end somewhere between 6500 and 6516. Possibly. These are low certainty projections.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low of 6364 overnight and then rose into the back above 6400 as traders positioned their holdings for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming conference,at 10 a.m. New York time.

The Fed, and especially Powell, have been criticized by President Trump for not lowering interest rates faster, and there has been much speculation that his speech would suggest a turning point in Federal Open Market Committee policy.

Or maybe not. At this point, all is uncertainty.

This analysis is being published 25-minutues befor the speech. I’ll post another analysis after the message of the speech becomes clear. And then a third analysis half an hour before the closing bell at 3:30 p.m. New York time

What does it mean? The pattern shown by Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged from from where it has been since August 20:

• The 4th-wave downward correction that began on August 14 from 6508.75.
• The decline reached a low within wave 4 of 6362.75.on August 20.
• The price has remained above that level, just barely, ever since.
• Without a signifiant turn to the upside, wave 4 is most likely in its initial subwav, wave A.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• B{-10} (unnamed), 8/30/2025, 6362.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 6370s, slightly higher than yesterday’s low.

Elliott Wave Theory: The alternatives listed in this morning’s analysis remain unresolved: Wave 4 continues its decline and may be continuing wave A, it’s initial subwave, or may have begun wave B, its middle of three subwaves.

Big event: Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses the Federal Reserve conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 10 a.m. New York time on Friday. Alternatives: The speech will change the Federal Open Market Committee’s strategic goals for managing the dollar, which have been in place since 2012, giving us all a new world to navigate in, or the speech will leave everything as is, giving us a world that works just as it has been for more than a decade.

An interesting day for traders.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 6410s to the 6380s overnight, remaining above the low point so far, 6362.75 on August 20, in the decline that began on August 14 from 6508.75.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the decline as abeing a 4th-wave downward correction. Wave 4 would appear to be in its initial subwave, falling wave A, or perhaps in its second subwave, rising wave B. There’s a lack of clarity so far.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 21, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com