Short session today, holiday tomorrow. The markets will close early today, at 1 p.m. New York time, in anticipation of the 4th of July holiday on Friday. The markets will be closed on Friday, except for an abbreviated futures session, which I shall monitor and file an analysis if anything interesting happens. I shall post today’s afternoon analysis at 12:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. Having reached a low of 6270.50 overnight, the S&P 500 futures rose throughout the session, reaching into the 6330s as the end drew near.

Elliott Wave Theory: I’ll use the labeling method that appears on the chart: A wave number followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, that tells the position of the degree within the fractal structure relative to Intermediate degree.

The present rise is wave 3{-14}, a subwave within wave 3{-13}. Both are encapsulated within wave 3{-12}, which began on June 30, a subwave of wave 5{-11}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 5{-10}, which began on June 22 from 5959.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fluctuated sideways for much of the overnight trading, and then shot upward in the span of 6 minutes, from the 6270s to the 6290s, when the Employment Situation Report was released, a day early because of the pending holiday.

The price reached a new higher high, 6296, and then immediately retreated, returning to the range within which it had traded overnight. It then rose again, reaching a new higher high.

What does it mean? My Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise and retreat as subwaves with an ongoing 3rd wave that began its rise on June 30. Wave is in turn a subwave within a rising 5th wave one degree higher.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a higher high by a few a dollars.

I’ve moved the chart closer in to better understand the internal structure of the 5th wave that began on June 22 from 5959. For greater clarity, I’ll use the wave labels on the chart: A wave number, followed by a degree position relative to Intermediate degree.

The wave that began on June 22 is wave 5{-10}. Internally, it is in its final leg, wave 5{-11}. which began on June 22.

The closeup shows the subwaves of wave wave 5{-11}. which is presently in wave 3{-12}.

The patterns are a bit unclear within wave 5{-11}. My principal analysis is that wave 3{-12} is still underway, with the decline that preceded the current rise being a subwave with the 3rd wave.

The alternative analysis is that wave 3{-12} ended at the peak from which the brief decline began and wave 4{-12} began. Adding another choice: Wave 4 may have ended at the end of the decline, or that decline may have been wave A{-13] within wave 4{-23}.

Ambiguities abound.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a higher high overnight, 6270.75, and then fell, picking up the pace of decline after the ADP employment report showed a loss of private sector jobs, the first since 2023.

The ADP report is a preview of the government’s Employment Situation Report, which will be released on Thursday rather than the usual Friday because the markets will be closed on Friday for the 4th of July holiday.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis views the higher high as the end of a small downward correction and the beginning of the uptrend within a 5th wave that began June 27. The low point of the overnight decline remans above yesterday’s low, 6227.25, suggesting the uptrend has resumed.

If the price were to fall below that level, it would call this analysis into question, and I’d move to an alternative: The downward correction within wave 5 continues.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 2, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures, after hitting a low for the day of 6227.25 a few minutes before the opening bell, rose during the session, reaching a high of 6261.50 and then falling sharply.

Elliott Wave Theory: The downward correction of the past day is within a 5th-wave uptrend that began on June 27.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight from yesterday’s high, 6265.50, so far reaching a low of 6227.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis is ambiguous. My principal analysis says the decline as a downward corrective wave within a rising 5th-wave that began on June 27. That wave is labelled 5{-11} on the chart an is stil underway.

In the wave references below, I refer to the chart labels in this format: Wave number, and wave degree as a subscript in curly brackets, with the degree being given relative to Intermediate degree.

My alternative analysis says the yesterday’s peak was the end of wave 5{-11} and its parent wave, 5{-10, and a series of three larger 5th waves — 5{-9}, 5{-8} and 5{-7}. One degree higher, it is also the end of wave 3{-6} and the beginning of wave A{-7} within wave 4{-6}.

Which is most likely to be correct? I can’t say for sure. Perhaps today’s session will clarify the analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 65-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 {up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 1, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York Time

Half an hour before the Closing Bell. The S&P 500 futures fell slightly during the session, reaching a low so far of 6114.25.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline is a subwave wave of the 5th-wave rise that began on June 27.

How long will wave 5 turn out to be? Length and duration in Elliott Whave Theory is far from precise. One metric is to calculate the 5th-wave’s Fibonacci retracements of the preceding 1st wave. A 100% retracement to 6313.25, a 61.8% to around 6263.59, and a 38.2% retracement to about 6232.91. The price is already into the 6250s, so the 38.2% wave has already been exceeded.

Bottom line: The end of wave 5 isn’t too far away.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, putting an end to last week’s decline.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that the decline matches the pattern of a typical 4th wave and the rise that follow, the first steps of the following 5th wave.

The 5th-wave, in turn, is a subwave of a larger 5th wave that began on June 22. When the smaller wave 5 is complete, it will also be the end of the larger 5th wave and series of even larger 5th waves stretching up three degrees. Above them stands an even larger 3rd wave, which began on April 24 and also reach its end simultaneously with all of the smaller waves.

After wave 3 is done, a 4th-wave downward correction will begin and will be noticeably larger than the smaller corrections we have seen of late.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 65-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 {up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 30, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York Time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked at 6239 right at the opening bell, and then reversed sharply.

Elliott Wave Theory: It appears likely that today’s peak is the end of the rising 3rd wave that began on June 23 and that a 4th-wave downward correction has begun. As is often the case in Elliott wave reversals, there’s some ambiguity. In this case, the 4th wave must remain above the end of the previous 1st wave, at 6123.25 on July 23, in order to confirm that the 4th wave has indeed begun.

Based on Fibonacci retracement theory, wave 4 is likely to decline into the mid-6100s, although that’s not a certainty. If it drops below 6123.25, then the Elliott Wave Theory rule is broken and the analysis will be redone. If it ends above the 6160s, no harm, no foul — wave 5 begins, an uptrend with five subwaves.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 65-minute bars, with volume] 

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 6190s to a peak of 6220.75.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory wave structure has remained unchanged since the present uptrending 3rd wave began on June 23. The 3rd wave is the middle subwave of a 5th wave that began the day before, June 22. The 5th wave is the final subwave in a larger 5th wave that began its rise on May 23 from 5756.50. That’s the principal analysis.

It’s also possible, if we squint our eyes and use our imagination, to a 4th-wave downward correction within the 5th wave that began on June 22. In my view, it lacks clarity and looks more like a random scribble than a countertrend move large enough to be a 4th wave correction. None the less, clarify is far from unknown an Elliiott Wave Theory analysis, and so it’s possible that wave 3 ended on June 24, wave 4 ended on June 25, and wave 5 began on that date.

Using the labeling system on the chart, under the principal analysis we have wave 3{-11} within wave 5{-10}, and under the alternative analysis we have wave 5{-11} withi wave 5{-10}.

When wave 5{-11} is complete, it will also be the end of waves 5{-10}, 5{-9}, 5{-8}, 5{-7} and 3{-6}. The largest wave, 3{-6}, began on April 21 from 5127.25.

[Outdated by events: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 65-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 6/272025, 6239 {down}
• A{-12} (unnamed), 6/272025, 6239 {down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 27, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a peak of 6198 and then pulling back slightly.

Elliott Wave theory: The rising 3rd wave within a larger 5th wave continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from the 6140s to a higher high, 6171, and then dropped sharply but briefly when the Gross Domestic Product revision was released.

What does it mean? An Elliott Wave Theory analysis of the chart shows that the rising 3rd wave that began on June 23 continues, the middle subwave with a rising 5th wave that began on June 22.

Both are subwaves of a larger risng 5th wave that began on May 23 from 5756.50.

The ambiguity in yesterday’s analysis has been resolved. The small 3rd wave that began this week is still underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 65-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 3{-11} (unnamed), 6/24/2025, 6155.25 {up}
• 5{-12} (unnamed), 6/24/2025, 6109 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 26, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 6130s so far.

Elliott Wave Theory: A rising 3rd wave continues within a larger 5th wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from the 6130s to the 6150s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis labels the rise that began on June 22 as a 5th-wave uptrend that, internally, is in its middle subwave, wave 3.

There is some ambiguity in the analysis. An extremely shallow decline on June 25, from 6155.25, could be a 4th-wave downward correction. If so, it would mean that the final subwave, wave 5, has begun. To me, the 4th-wave decline seems too shallow to be of the same degree as the preceding 3rd wave.

So, I see two possible interpretations, using the labels that appear on the chart, a wave number followed by a subscript in brackets showing the number of degrees distance from Intermediate degree.

• Principal analysis: Wave 3{-11} continues, with wave 4{-12}, a subwave, having ended on June 24 and wave 5{-12} having begun.
• Alternative analysis: Wave 5{-11} has begun, within wave 4{-10} having ended on June 24.eceding 3rd wave.

While a shallow decline from 6155.25 could technically be counted as wave 4{-11}, it lacks both depth and duration typical of that degree. I favor the interpretation that wave 3{-11} is still in progress, and we are now in its final subwave, wave 5{-12}. A strong upward move above 6160–6170 with volume could confirm this and start the countdown to 4{-11}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 60-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 3{-11} (unnamed), 6/24/2025, 6155.25 {up}
• 5{-12} (unnamed), 6/24/2025, 6109 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6150s as the end approached.

Elliott Wave Theory: An uptrending 5th wave that began on June 22 is underway and is in its middle subwave, wave 3.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching into the 6170s, well above the prior high of 6109.

What does it mean? The new high requires a revision of the Elliott Wave Theory analysis.

The prior high, on 6/16, had been labeled wave 5 and has been relabeled wave 3. The low at 5959, on 6/22, which had been a subwave within a downtrendiing 4th wave, has been relabeled as the end of wave 4. And the rise from that point, also a subwave in previous labeling, has been relabelled as a 5th wave.

In other words, we’ve moved from a major peak followed by the first stages of what would become a major downtrend to a significant uptrend that is typical will carry the price significantly above the 6/22 starting point..

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 24, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued rising during the session, reaching to within 25 cents of the 6070 mark.

Elliott Wave Theory: Declining wave A, the first subwave within the declining 4th wave that began on June 16, continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The United States launched an air attack on nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend. The S&P 500 E-mini futures ended last week at 6025, before the attack. It resumed trading from 5959 and immediately began to rise, so far reaching into the 6030s. In other words, a minute of drama followed by trading as usual.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis has the S&P 500 futures reaching a major turning point on June 16, triggering the end of four degrees of 5th waves and ushering in a batch of initial subwaves within a 4th-wave downward correction, wave 4{-6} on the chart, within the early stages of a downtrend. The preceding 3rd wave began on April 21, two months ago, and since 4th waves tend to be shorter than 3rd waves, It will be a long decline that we’ve grown used to but not hugely so.

One quirk of Elliott Wave Theory is the difficulty of precisely locating degrees. There’s insufficient data. So the wave 4{-6} label and wave A{-7} labels are precise, but the degrees of the waves within wave A{-7} so far lack clarity

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 4{-6} Submicro, 6/16/2025, 6109 (down)
• A{-7} Minuscule, 6/16/2025, 6109 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked early in the session at 6071 and the retreated, so far reaching slightly above 6000.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave A within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on June 16 continues, under the principal analysis. Under the alternative analysis, the June 16 high becomes the end of wave 3{-10}, with the subwaves now labeled {-10} are demoted one degree to {-11}. Were the alternative count prove to be the best analysis, then there will be a significant increase in the rise that lies ahead.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. When trading resumed overnight, the S&P 500 E-mini futures began at 5991.50 and began to rise, so far reaching into the 6050s.

What does it mean? I’ve modified the Elliott Wave Theory analysis to imrprove the balance among the waves. As part of the change, the June 16 peak, 6109, became a major turning point in the market.

If the price rises above 6109, then the revision is incorrect and somethng else is going on. However, the revision solved a major problem and appears compelling enough that a fair analysis will at the least show what it looks like.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/21/2025, 4832 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 20, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.