3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose slightly early in the session and then resumed their downward march, so far reaching into the 6820s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Downtrending corrective wave 4{-8} continues. The decline has now moved below the first Fibonacci retracement target (38.2% of the prior advance), which keeps the correction’s momentum intact. The next likely stopping zones are 6781 (50%) and 6720 (61.8%); a deeper “stretch” level is 6634 (78.6%). I will watch for basing or reversal structure at each level; absent that, the odds favor continuation to the next zone.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight, from 6916.50 into the 6840s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to see downtrending wave 4{-8} underway. The decline began on January 13 from 7036.25, then rose a bit at the opening bell. This corrective wave is a subwave of rising wave C{-7}, which is in turn a subwave of the broader upward correction, wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

The AI ChatGPT analyzed the chart with the goal of estimating how far the price might fall. ChatGPT writes:

To estimate how far wave 4{-8} might travel, I measure how much it is retracing the prior advance it is correcting—namely rising wave C{-7} (6525 on 11/21 to 7036.25 on 1/13). A common method is Fibonacci retracement: markets often pause or reverse after giving back about 38%, 50%, or 62% of the prior move. Wave C{-7} spans 511.25 points, so the key retracement targets from the 7036.25 peak are: 38.2% at 6840.95 (already reached), 50% at 6780.63, 61.8% at 6720.30, and a deeper “stretch” level at 78.6%: 6634.41. These are not certainties; they are likely stopping zones where I will watch for basing, reversal structure, or a breakdown to the next level.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

Market Holiday. The U.S. markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The S&P 500 futures resumed trading Sunday evening, and remained active into Monday.

10 a.m. New York time

The S&P 500 futures close. The holiday session ended at 10 a.m. Futures reached a morning low of 6887.50, then reversed higher, rising to 6915.75 before the close. The rebound was too shallow to overturn this morning’s conclusion: a downtrending corrective wave 4{-8} is underway.

I’ve posted a short-term chart with 5-minute bars to show the course of today’s trading.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10 a.m., 5-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reopened Sunday evening with a 59.5-point gap down. The decllne continued, so far reaching a low of 6890.25. The total drop as of now is 87.50.

What does it mean? The decline resolves the Elliott Wave Theory ambiguity that had plagued the chart for days. The uptrending 3rd wave that began on January 2 from 6866.75 ended on January 13 at 7036.25. A 4th-wave downward correction began at that point, on that date, and is still underway.

The waves in play are wave 3{-8} and 4{-8}, both within rising wave C{-7}, which began on November 21, 2025 from 6525, and wave 4{-6}, an upward correction that began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

The analysis on Friday, based on Fibonacci levels and wave lengths within the structure, had determend that a move below 6923.25 would be confirmation that wave 4{-8} is underway. The chart as of this writing is 33 points below that level.

Why the gap? The Monday morning news report attribute it to President Trump saying Saturday on social media that he would impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries if they were continue opposing his plan for the U.S. to take over governance of Greenland. The countries are Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.

Sunday’s gap-down is a reminder that political developments can still matter quickly and disproportionately for prices. One plausible explanation is that traders used the thin overnight session to reprice policy and geopolitical uncertainty; if so, the move may be less a “technical decision” than a sudden shift in perceived risk. Either way, the practical takeaway is the same: this week our stance can’t be set once and forgotten—caution versus participation, and even “no trade,” will be a daily decision.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10 a.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded narrowly during the latter half of the session, mostly oscillating between the 6970s and the 6990s. The market has not broken out of the zone of ambiguity.

Elliott Wave Theory. The lack of follow-through keeps the chart unchanged: Either the decline remains pending, or it has begun in a gradual form that has not yet revealed itself through a decisive range break. Until the price moves beyond the key confirmation levels, the best read is still “wait for clarity.”

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures began the overnight session at 6982.75, rose to 7007, reversed, and then fell back into the 6980s.

What does it mean? The overnight action remained inside the zone of ambiguity. Elliott Wave Theory analysis therefore remains split at one degree lower:

Either rising wave 3{-8} is still in progress (as part of rising wave C{-7} of wave 4{-6}), or wave 3{-8} ended at 7036.25 and a new decline, wave 4{-8}, is now underway.

Price levels that would add clarity. The wave 3{-8} scenario strengthens on a move above 7036.25.

On the downside, the wave 4{-8} scenario gains weight as price begins to hold below key retracement areas of the 6866.75 → 7036.25 advance:

• Below ~6996 (shallow retrace): first nudge toward wave 4{-8}.
• Below ~6971 (38% retrace): evidence strengthens.
• Below ~6951 (50% retrace): wave 4{-8} becomes the better read.
• Below ~6931 (62% retrace): wave 4{-8} becomes highly likely.

A move below 6923.25 would be confirmation that wave 4{-8} is underway.

Context. The present advance began at 6525 on November 21, 2025. At the larger degree it remains wave C{-7}, the third subwave of wave 4{-6}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued rising during the session, reaching 7017.25, and then reversed sharply, falling back into the 6970s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The key feature today is not the new high, but the character of the decline that followed it. The reversal was fast and decisive, which argues for a turn in trend rather than a routine dip within an ongoing advance. In that light, today’s decline looks more like a resumption of declining wave 4{-8} than a temporary pullback within rising wave 3{-8}.

If the decline extends and sustains beneath 6986, and especially if it presses toward yesterday’s low zone, the case for wave 4{-8} strengthens. Conversely, if the market recovers late and retakes the 7010–7017 area with staying power, then the “wave 3{-8} continues” scenario remains viable.

Key levels. Two price zones matter most. First is the recovery ceiling, 7010–7017.25. If the market can reclaim that zone and hold it, then the case for rising wave 3{-8} revives. Second is the support shelf in the high-6900s, centered on 6986. A sustained break below 6986 strengthens the wave 4{-8} interpretation, and a renewed break beneath 6923.25 would move it from “likely” to “confirmed.”

Likelihoods. At mid-session the evidence is mixed, but the character of the move matters. A slow drift lower would fit the idea of a pullback within an ongoing rise. That is not what we saw. The decline off 7017.25 was abrupt and impulsive, which leans toward a larger trend change. For that reason, the odds now favor the view that wave 4{-8} is resuming, unless buyers can reverse the reversal and retake the 7010–7017 zone before the close.

Today’s sharp reversal shifts the edge back toward declining wave 4{-8}, but the final decision remains price-driven into the close.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 6949.50 and has so far reached a high of 7002.

What does it mean? The question posed by Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains the same: does rising wave 3{-8} continue, or has it ended with declining wave 4{-8} now underway?

Yesterday’s decline was sufficient to tilt the analysis in favor of wave 4{-8}, and I adjusted the chart labeling to reflect it. Overnight, however, the market reversed higher. That recovery increases the likelihood that wave 3{-8} is still underway, with wave 4{-8} delayed into the future.

Levels to watch. Yesterday’s closing analysis concluded: “A break to a new low beneath 6923.25 would further confirm wave 4{-8}; a sustained recovery back above 6986.00 would weaken that conclusion.” Overnight, the market held above 6923.25 and recovered above 6986.00, weakening the wave 4{-8} case.

From here, two price tests matter most:

• 7036.25 (the January 13 peak). A push to new highs above 7036.25 would strongly favor the view that wave 3{-8} is still advancing.
• 6923.25 (yesterday’s key low). A renewed break below 6923.25 would put wave 4{-8} back in the driver’s seat.

Bottom line. Overnight price action has materially weakened yesterday’s wave 4{-8} conclusion. I’ll decide in today’s closing analysis whether to revert the labeling back to the wave 3{-8} continues scenario.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 159-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, so far reaching a low of 6923.25. It retraced a portion of the decline, but the bounce has not traveled far and has lacked staying power.

Elliott Wave Theory. This morning’s question was an ambiguity: Is wave 3{-8} still rising, or did it end at the January 13 peak, beginning wave 4{-8}? Today’s decline strengthens the case for the latter. I have revised the chart to show wave 4{-8} underway.

This creates a new constraint. Wave 1{-8} was longer than wave 3{-8}. Under Elliott Wave rules, wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1, 3, and 5. That means wave 5{-8}, when it arrives, must not be longer than wave 3{-8}. If wave 5{-8} unfolds longer than wave 3{-8}, the count becomes invalid and I will revise the analysis.

A break to a new low beneath 6923.25 would further confirm wave 4{-8}; a sustained recovery back above 6986 would weaken that conclusion.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached their overnight peak, 7002.50, shortly after yesterday’s session ended, and continued to fall, so far reaching into the 6960s. The decline began an hour before the January 13 session began, from an all-time peak, 7036.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that the structure of the chart is unchanged. An upward correction, wave 4{-6}, is underway and internally is in rising wave C{-7}.

One degree lower is where the uncertainty begins. Rising wave 3{-8} began on January 2 at 6866.75 and peaked on January 13 at 7036.25. If that peak was the end of wave 3{-8}, then declining wave 4{-8} is now the next expectation. The first warning sign would be continued weakness that fails to reclaim 6994 on any bounce. A decline below 6971.50 (38% retracement of the January 2–January 13 rise) would further support that view; below 6951.50 (50%) would make it the working assumption; and below 6931.50 (62%) would strongly favor that wave 4{-8} is underway.

My practice is to keep the current analysis unless there’s an Elliott Wave Theory reason to change. So far, there is none, and the chart continues to show wave 3{-8} as being underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 150-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-8} (none), 1/2/2026, 6866.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have worked their way lower since the CPI spike, falling from the post-release high of 7036.25 to a session low so far of 6983.50. Price is now chopping in the 6990s.

Elliott Wave Theory. On the 5-minute chart, the decline unfolds as a clean five-wave motive sequence, with the third wave the longest. So far, I am treating that selloff as a subwave within the larger upward correction that began on October 10, wave 4{-6}.

Key level. The pre-CPI base at 7007–7010 has now been broken. If price can reclaim that range and hold, the larger uptrend remains the higher-probability conclusion. If it cannot, then the odds increase that today’s decline is more than a brief subwave and may be the start of a deeper pullback.

Today’s CPI whipsaw looks less like ‘one spike and done’ and more like a volatility pivot day—trend clarity will come from whether 7007–7010 can be regained.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight low of 6998.75 early in the session, then traded mostly between 7000 and the 7010s until the Consumer Price Index report was published an hour before the opening bell. Price then shot up to 7036.25 and just as quickly declined back into the 7010s and 7020s.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave terms, the sharp rise and decline appear to be a small subwave within the upward correction that began on October 10, wave 4{-6}. The correction is presently in wave C{-7}, which in turn is in its third of five subwaves, wave 3{-8}, all rising.

Key level. As long as price remains above the 7007–7010 range—where futures were trading before the CPI release—the uptrend remains the higher-probability read. If price moves below that range and fails to recover it, the uptrend becomes less certain and the odds increase of a deeper pullback.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 150-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-8} (none), 1/2/2026, 6866.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures so far have risen to 7025.25 during today’s session—an all-time high that exceeds the prior peak (6994), reached on December 26, 2025.

Elliott Wave Theory: The new high confirms that wave 4{-6} remains underway—the upward correction that began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

As long as the market holds above the prior breakout zone, the path of least resistance remains upward.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading at 7007 Sunday evening and then dropped sharply, reaching an overnight low so far of 6950 and then rising to the 6970s.

The opening decline came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a statement that the U.S. Justice Dept. had opened an investigation into his testimony to Congress about the renovation of the Fed’s Washington, D.C. headquarters.

What does it mean? The decline was insufficient to trigger a change in how Elliott Wave Theory views the chart. Rising wave 3{-8} within rising wave C{-7}, both within upward correction wave 4{-6} remain underway.

The overnight drop was sharp and news-driven, but it hasn’t yet crossed the price lines that would force an Elliott Wave relabel—so the uptrend count remains the working model, with 6935.25 as the first hard test.

The AI ChatGPT listed these S&P 500 futures levels that are important today:

• 7017.5: most recent peak (the “make it or break it” overhead reference).
• 7008–7007: reopening area; reclaiming it cleanly would calm the tape.
• 6950: overnight low; if that breaks again, downside pressure is back on.
• 6935.25: the key line in the sand from your chart. A sustained break below here is the first thing that would start to pressure the “3{-8} still rising” assumption.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 150-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-8} (none), 1/2/2026, 6866.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise during the session, breaking above Wednesday’s peak and reaching a higher high of 7017.50 so far.

Elliott Wave Theory. The January 7 small downward correction has clearly ended. Rising wave 3{-8} continues, within rising wave C{-7}, within the upward correction, wave 4{-6}.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures in early trading overnight dropped to 6954.75, rising swiftly into the 6980s with the release of the Employment Situation Report an hour before the opening bell. It is the first normal report since the end of the federal government spending shutdown in September and October 2025. The price then swiftly fell back into the 6960s as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Notably, in terms of Elliott Wave Theory, the futures’ positive response to the jobs report fell short of the peak of wave 3{-8} so far, 7006.75 reached on January 7. The price might well reach that high point again, or perhaps exceed it. But that hasn’t happened yet, and the market response was a happy pop but not an overwhelming one.

The AI, ChatGPT, identifies the following levels as decision points:

• Line in the sand for “just a news pop”: ~6966, then 6954.25. A drop back through those levels starts to look like a full post-news fade.
• Immediate resistance / “did the spike hold?”: ~6988.5 (the post-report high). A clean push through and hold suggests continuation.
• Near-term support (breakout area): ~6974–6976 (the last shelf before the vertical move). If price retests and holds, the spike looks real.

Wave 3{-8}, which began on January 2, is a subwave of wave C{-7}, which began on November 21, 2025 and is a subwave of an upward correction, wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025, from 6540.25.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 150-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-8} (none), 1/2/2026, 6866.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 6972.50 during the session and then dropped back into the 6950s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The drop-back is a downward correction subwave within rising wave 3{-8}, a subwave of rising wave C{-7} within a larger upward correction, wave 4{-6}, that began on October 10, 2025.

When wave 4{-6} is complete, downtrending wave 5{-6} will begin and is likely to carry the price below 6500, perhaps significantly lower.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened the overnight session at 6969.50, sold off to 6935.25, and then rebounded into the 6950s. The range stayed narrow, and price remains well below yesterday’s peak at 7006.75 (Wednesday, January 7).

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to point to wave 3{-8} in progress. Wave 3{-8} began on January 2 from 6866.75, following the wave 2{-8} low. It is the central advancing subwave within wave C{-7}, which began on November 21, 2025.

As long as the price holds above 6866.75, the wave 3{-8} uptrend remains intact; a break below it would force a re-evaluation of the count.

The entire structure remains within rising wave 4{-6}, the upward correction that started on October 10, 2025 at 6540.25. Wave 4{-6} appears to be taking the form of an expanding diagonal triangle.

An expanding triangle in a 4th wave needs the swing points to grow (diverging trendlines):

• A{-7} up: October 29 to 6953.75
• B{-7} down: November 21 to 6525
• C{-7} up: has now pushed above A{-7} to 7006.75

That “C exceeds A” behavior is exactly what you’d expect in an expanding triangle.

The structure requires the next two legs:

• A D{-7} down that breaks below 6525, exceeding the B{-7} extreme
• An E{-7} up that then breaks above 7006.75

If D does not take out 6525, then it’s not an expanding triangle by the textbook definition — it becomes some other corrective form (running/contracting, complex correction, etc.), or the degree labels need rework.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 150-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-8} (none), 1/2/2026, 6866.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded in a mixed session, with a low in the 6970s and a late push to a new high of 7006.75. The move did not hold. As of now, price has pulled back to 6985.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. This morning’s revision remains in place. Rising wave 3{-8}, which began on January 2, continues to advance. It is the middle subwave of rising wave C{-7}, the final subwave of wave 4{-6}, an upward correction that began on October 10, 2025.

What to watch next. Today’s spike to 7006.75 looks like a test rather than a breakout. If price can return above 7006.75 and hold, the correction remains in force and may extend. If instead the rejection stands and price breaks down through 6975.25, the odds rise that the advance is stalling. The more meaningful downside break remains 6931. A break below 6866.75 would be the cleanest confirmation that the correction ended and a larger decline is underway.

10:45 a.m. New York time

A New Chart. The S&P 500 futures rose suddenly 15 minutes into the session, moving above the prior high, 6994 on December 26, to 6998.75. The price swiftly withdrew back to 6991.25. The move had no staying power, but the break itself is the key fact.

The specific Elliott Wave count I published this morning treated 6994 as the ceiling for wave 2{-7}. Since price exceeded that level, that version of the count is invalidated as written and must be adjusted. This does not automatically turn the market bullish. It simply means the upward corrective structure remains in force for now.

What to watch next. 6998.25 is now the immediate ceiling. If price returns above it and holds, the correction is still strengthening. If instead today’s spike proves to be a rejection and price rolls over, the first downside tell is 6975.25, and the more important confirmation remains a decisive break back below 6931.

As always, when the Elliott Wave analysis no longer matches the reality on the chart — when the map no longer matches the terrain — the chart must be redone in order to fix the mismatch.

The new map:

• Rising wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025, continues.
• It is presently in its final subwave, rising wave C{-7}.
• The C wave is in the 3rd of five subwaves, wave 3{-8}, which began on January 2.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 75-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from 6991.50 to 6975.25 and then returned to 6990 and the 6980s. The price rose slightly with the openng bell, back to 6991.50, then pulled back.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave C{-8}, the final subwave of a 2nd-wave upward correction, wave 2{-7}, as being underway.

The larger structure still reads as: The December 26 peak at 6994 ended wave 4{-6}, and the decline into 1/2 at 6866.75 was wave 1{-7} of the new downtrend, 5{-6}. Since then we’ve been in the corrective rebound, wave 2{-7}, which is now in its final leg, wave C{-8} (with A{-8} = 6963.50 on 1/5 and B{-8} = 6931 on 1/6 already in place).

What to watch now.

• Ceiling / invalidation: A 2nd wave cannot exceed the start of the 1st wave. So a push above 6994 invalidates this count and forces a relabel.
• The tell for completion: If this C{-8} rally stalls in the 6985–6994 zone and then breaks back down through 6931, that’s the cleanest confirmation that 2{-7} is over and the next impulsive decline is underway.
• Near-term pivot: Overnight’s dip to 6975.25 held and snapped back. That’s typical “last push” behavior in a C-wave—bulls can still squeeze it higher, but the risk is that the next failure is sharp.

Trading posture (quick). Treat the current strength as corrective until proven otherwise. I’m watching for either (1) rejection under 6994, or (2) a clean break back below 6931 to signal that the downtrend has regained control.

[This chart is now updated and retained for reference. See above for the updated chart.]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-8} (none), 1/2/2026, 6866.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com