2:15 p.m. New York time
My positions remain within their profit zones following the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to leave the target Federal Funds rate unchanged, at 2.25 to 2.5%.
I note that the overall FOMC projections (top chart) released this afternoon show, compared to December’s projections, lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation. The look-ahead has grown less optimistic in the past six months.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 19, 2019
4:45 p.m. New York time
No fill on my XOP exit order.
10:25 a.m. New York time
I’ve placed an exit order on XOP for a $0.17 debit, which would place me a bit above the 50% maximum potential profit mark.
I’ll be away from my desk for much of the session, so I may be late in posting about a fill, should it occur.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 17, 2019
2:45 p.m. New York time
Decision time. Nothing to do with my trading rules, but IWM goes ex-dividend on Monday. If any of my short options are in the money, they could candidates for assignment.
Normally on the day a stock goes ex-dividend, it can be expected to show price decline by the amount of the dividend. If the price drop puts a short option in the money, it is more likely to be assigned, if the dividend is greater than the remaining extrinsic value (time and volatility value) of the option.
My IWM position in a short iron condor, with both short calls and short puts. The short calls have $159 strike, with an extrinsic value of $0.605, and the short puts a $140 strike, with an extrinsic value of $0.635.
IWM is now trading at $152.02, and the next dividend is expected to be between 40 and 45 cents. So the lowest I expect the ex-dividend drop to be is $151.57. At that price, my calls and my puts are both out of the money, the extrinsic value is well above the expected dividend, and so an assignment in unlikely.
Unless there’s a shockingly large price change between now and the market close, I shall hold my IWM iron condor through the ex-dividend date. The position is presently at 29% of maximum potential profit.
My other positions are all ending the week within their profit zones.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 14, 2019
10 a.m. New York time
With 37 days left until expiration, my positions remain within the profit zone. None is close to the exit at 50% of maximum potential profit prescribed by my trading rules–the closest is IWM at 27% of max. And so I wait, like sailing ship stuck in the equatorial latitudes, stuck in the doldrums as theta–time decay–does its work in bringing each position to a–knock on wood–profitable ending.
All of my positions are short iron condors with the two short strike prices set very far apart, with a delta of 20 or less, providing odds of the options expiring within that range at 85% or so. While time decay destroys the value of long options, it adds to the value of short options, helping them along to a profit.
This method of trading provides very little drama, except around 42 days prior to expiration, when I’m entering new positions, and 21 days prior, when I’m closing profitable positions and those that have moved outside the profit range.
To my thinking, the way I trade is perfect for people who have lives beyond the markets. It allows much time for other things. Most often the word “doldrums” is used in a negative sense, “the economy is in the doldrums”, for example. But in the case of this trading method, the doldrums are a good thing.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 12, 2019
Update 7/1/2019: NVDA rose steadily from the day I entered my short iron condor position. A news-storm involving the trade dispute with China pushed the position beyond it’s profit zone, and I exited for a loss. The debit required to close the position was $4.89, which is a $3.08 loss from the $1.81 credit upon entry. Altogether the share price rose by $23.26 during my holding period. The implied volatility rank fell by 11.5 points to 20.9%.
The exit was triggered under my new 2019 trading rules, which requires immediate exit if a position moves beyond the profit zone with less than 21 days until expiration.
Shares rose by 15.9% over 24 days, or a +242% annual rate. The options position produced a -63.0% loss for a -958% annual rate.
I have entered a short iron condor spread on NVDA, using options that trade for the last time 42 days hence, on July 19. The premium is a $1.81 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $146.24.
The profit zone for this position is between $166.81 on the upside and $116.81 on the downside.
The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 32.4%.
| Premium: | $1.81 | Expire OTM | |
| NVDA-iron condor | Strike | Odds | Delta |
| Long | 175.00 | 93.0% | 6 |
| Break-even | 166.81 | 89.5% | 10.5 |
| Short | 165.00 | 86.0% | 15 |
| Puts | |||
| Short | 125.00 | 84.0% | 13 |
| Break-even | 116.81 | 88.5% | 9.5 |
| Long | 115.00 | 93.0% | 6 |
The premium is 18.1% of the width of the position’s wings.
The risk/reward ratio is 4.5:1.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 7, 2019
11 a.m. New York time
My order for a short iron condor on NVDA has been filled at my asking price, and I’ve posted the analysis.
10:10 a.m. New York time
I’ve placed an order for a short iron condor on NVDA, with an asking price of $1.81. The shorts are $165 for the all and $125 for the put, with $10 wide wings.
My current holdings are all within the profit zone and expire July 19.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 7, 2019
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)
Update 6/25/2019: XOP pushed to 51.4% of maximum potential profit, and I exited my short iron condor position for a debit of $0.17 per share. That produced a $0.18 per share profit on the options, with the stock priced at $26.00, or $0.96 above the entry point.
XOP during my holding period traced a sideways pattern a bit more than $2 wide. The implied volatility rank dropped by 8.3 to 35.6%.
Shares rose by 3.8% over 19 days, or a +74% annual rate. The options position produced a 105.9% return for a 2,034% annual rate.
I have entered a short iron condor spread on XOP, using options that trade for the last time 43 days hence, on July 19. The premium is a $0.35 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $25.04
The profit zone for this position is between $29.35 on the upside and $20.35 on the downside.
The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 43.9%.
| Premium: | $0.35 | Expire OTM | |
| XOP-iron condor | Strike | Odds | Delta |
| Long | 31.00 | 96.0% | 4 |
| Break-even | 29.35 | 92.0% | 9 |
| Short | 29.00 | 88.0% | 14 |
| Puts | |||
| Short | 22.00 | 83.0% | 14 |
| Break-even | 20.35 | 88.0% | 9.5 |
| Long | 20.00 | 93.0% | 5 |
The premium is 17.5% of the width of the position’s wings.
The risk/reward ratio is 4.7:1.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 6, 2019
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
Update 6/26/2019: KRE reached 50% of maximum potential profit, and I exited my short iron condor options position for a $0.30 debit, which gave the position a $0.30 profit, with shares trading for $51.94, down $0.29 from their price at entry.
KRE traded in a narrow range of a bit more $1 during my holding period. The implied volatility rank at exit was 37.9%, up 3.7 points from the entry level. The hope in trading short iron condors is that volatility will decline, but such was not the case with this trade. The financial sector was impacted by speculations that the Federal Open Market Committee would cut the federal funds rate.
Shares declined by 0.6% over 20 days, or a -10% annual rate. The options position produced a 100.0% return for a +1,825% annual rate.
I have entered a short iron condor spread on KRE, using options that trade for the last time 43 days hence, on July 19. The premium is a $0.60 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $52.23.
The profit zone for this position is between $56.60 on the upside and $44.60 on the downside.
The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 34.2%.
| Premium: | $0.60 | Expire OTM | |
| KRE-iron condor | Strike | Odds | Delta |
| Long | 59.00 | 95.0% | 6 |
| Break-even | 56.60 | 88.5% | 12.5 |
| Short | 56.00 | 82.0% | 19 |
| Puts | |||
| Short | 48.00 | 81.0% | 17 |
| Break-even | 44.60 | 86.5% | 12 |
| Long | 44.00 | 92.0% | 7 |
The premium is 17.1% of the width of the position’s wings.
The risk/reward ratio is 4.8:1.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 6, 2019
2 p.m. New York time
My order for a short iron condor position on XOP was filled at my asking price, and I’ve posted an analysis.
1:40 p.m. New York time
I’ve placed an order for a short iron condor on XOP, with the shorts being a $29 call and a $22 put and the wings being $2 wide. My asking price is $0.35.
9:45 a.m. New York time
KRE analysis posted. Other holdings are all within the profit zone.
9:40 a.m. New York time
I’ve entered a short iron condor position on KRE. Analysis to follow.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 6, 2019
4:25 p.m. New York time
No fill on my KRE order.
1:35 p.m. New York time
I’ve entered an order for a short iron condor on KRE, structured as a $56 call with a $3 wing and a $48 put with a $4 wing.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 5, 2019
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