3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued meandering between the 5560s and the 5540s in a correction, Elliott Wave Theory says, within rising wave C, the final subwave of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on April 7 from 4832. The waves involved are labeled wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 5516.25 and then rose, reaching into the 5550s as the opening bell approached. It then, at the opening bell, rose higher, to 5569.50

What does it mean?  The opening high exceeded the April 25 high, clarifying what had been an ambiguous Elliott Wave Theory analysis. The 4th-wave upward correction continues and is in its final subwave, wave C.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 45-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 4{-8} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}., having paused for corrective wave 4{-10}. Wave 5{-10} has begun.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 4{-8} (no name), 3/7/2025, 48322 (up)
• C{-9} (no name), 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 28, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

12:25 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The GLD exchange-traded fund has fallen during the session, adding on to the decline that began on April 24

What does it mean? The decline is the final subwave, wave C, within the downward correction that began on April 21. The rising B wave ended on April 24 at 310.93.

An alternative is possible. Waves A through C could be subwaves of wave. If a Zigzag, then they would be waves 1 and 2 completed, with wave 3 now underway.

[Gold futures, 12:25 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows:

Rising wave B{-4} ended on April 24 at 310.93 and declining wave C{-4} began and is underway. Both are subwaves of declining wave A{-3}.

Under the alternative analysis, waves A{-4}, B{-4} and C{-4} are moved down a degree to waves A{-5}, B{-5} and C{-5} within declining wave A{-4}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• GLD exchange-traded fund:
• 3{+1} Primary, 12/17/2015, 100.23 (up)
• 4{0} Intermediate, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• A{−1} Minor, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• A{−2} Minute, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• A{−3} Minuette, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• C{−4} Micro, 4/24/2025, 310.93 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed its rise, reaching 5554.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave C within a 4th-wave upward correction continues. I’ve updated the chart in the Revised Analysis section.

9:57 a.m. New York time

The Revised Analysis I’ve revised the analysis of the chart, changing everything from April 7 to the present as subwaves of a rising 4th-wave correction (wave 4{-8} on the chart). Present wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} is underwqy.,

I’ve retained the earlier chart to allow easy comparison.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked at 5553 overnight and then retreated back to the 5480s.

What does it mean?  I’ve attempted to apply Elliott Wave Theory to the subwaves of the present rising wave C within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10.

C waves have five subwaves. The difficuty with the pattern is that there is little to distinguish the 1st subwave from the 3rd. Another way of saying it is that threre is no clear 2nd wave. The 4th wave, by contrast, has great clarity.

So, now underway, wave 5 within the C wave. The upward correction is in its final wave, unless it forms a complex pattern, with two or three A-B-C patterns.

And yet, there’s a problem. A firm rule of Elliott Wave Theory declares that a 2nd wave never moves beyond the beginning of the preceding 1st wave. The 1st wave began on April 9 from 5528.75. The 2nd wave peaked at 5553 overnight. The rule has been broken, and It’s back to the drawing board to reanalyze everythng that has happened since April 9.

No time for the work before postng. I will post an update when the work is complete.

Revised: See new chart above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the revised chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 4{-8} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}., having paused for corrective wave 4{-10}. Wave 5{-10} has begun.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Note: This list has been revised based on the chart analysis revision.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 4{-8} (no name), 3/7/2025, 48322 (up)
• C{-9} (no name), 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

12:50 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The GLD exchange-traded fund slipped from 307.44 at the opening bell down to 304.71

What does it mean? The pattern seem through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory is compatible with wave A ending on April 23, two days after the Apri 21 peak put an end to a number of rising impulse waves. Under this, my principle analysis, rising wave B is underway.

Bottom fishing on a stock chart often results in multiple possibilities. If the price reverses and falls below 300.59, then an alternative analysis comes into play: Wave A is still underway.

All of this is happening within a series of downward corrective waves that began on April 21.

[Gold futures, 2:35 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching beyond the April 23 high, 5499.75, reaching 5514.75 before dropping back.

The break above yesterday’s high confirmed the principal analysis: Rising wave C, the final subwave of the wave 2 upward correction, is underway. The alternative analysis posted this morning? Not happening.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight and thern rose, retracing a Fibonacci 78.6% of the decline.

What does it mean? The rise, analyzed using Elliott Wave Theory, leaves unanswered whether yesterday’s analysis was correct: The decline was a correction contained with the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10.

I intend to stick with that analysis until I see greater evidence to the contrary. For the present, the principal analysis is the ongoing wave 2 scenario, and the alternative analysis has wave 2 ending on April 23 at 5499.75 and wave 3 beginning.

Under the principal analysis, look for a quick reversal to the downside as downtrending wave 3 picks up energy. Under the alternative analysis, look for a rapid push against 5499.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 2{-9} is underway, having paused for corrective wave of the {-10} degree.

Alternative analysis: Upward correction wave 2{-9} ended on April 23 and downtrending wave 3{-9} is underway.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)
• 2{-9} (no name), 4/10/2025, 5146.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

2:35 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The GLD exchange-traded fund continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 300.59.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline as wave within a series of A waves, each larger than the one before, all the way up to a 4th wave. All of the waves began on April 21 from 322.52 after a smaller 5th wave reached its end, triggering the end of all the other in the fractal ladder, all encompassed by a 3rd wave that began on November 3, 2022 from 150.57.

The smaller wave A — labeled wave A{-4} — will be followed by a rising B wave and then a falling C wave.

The end of the 5th wave that began on April 17, wave 5{-5} triggers a series wave endings all the way up to wave 3{0}, which began on November 3, 2022 from 150.57.

Wave 3{0} has now begun wave 4{0}, a downward correction, which is now in its first subwave, wave A{-1}. All the waves smaller that wave. And at this point, every former 5th wave from wave 5{-1} to wave 5{-6} is now an A wave with the same degree.

I’ve seen cascades happen before when applying Elliott Wave Theory. This one stands among the larger.

My initial reaction was a heartfelt “No way!” The political and economic forces that coincided with GLD’s race to the top are still with us: Ever-changing tariff policies that are likely to raise prices and make shipping less certain, along with President Trump’s expressed wishes that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eave the Fed before his term expires next year.

I then stepped back and recalled a key tennant of Elliott Wave Theory: Events don’t steer markets. Neither does policy. Markets are steered by the mass psychology of crowds. And sometimes the crowds do what’s expected, and sometimes their combined judgment takes another past.

Where we stand. If the crowd wills it, a months long downward correction phase will ensue, as each degree works through its corrective waves. And for traders, there will be ups and downs, providing opportunity. Each correction usually has three subwaves (some have more). My personal favorite waves to trade are waves 3, 5, and C.

The waves in the vast fractal field will have plenty of each.

Aternative. Or, the price might turn around and move higher, erasing all of the above. All will return to wave 3{0} encompassing a series of 5th waves. Could happen. Elliott Wave Theory doesn’t read the future, only the possibilities.

[Gold futures, 2:35 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures stalled its decline in the 5380s, rising slightly and then fall slightly but making no progress in either direction.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline is a downward correction within wave C, the final subwave of the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10. Or, an alternative, the high before the deline was the end of wave C and the correction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5370s to the 5450s.

What does it mean? In light of Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 20 continues to work its way through what is likely its final subwave, wave C.

All of this is encompassed within wave 5{-8}, a downtrending impulse wave that began on April 9.

I say “likely the final subwave” because some corrections take a complex form, with one A-B-C subwave pattern being followed by a second three-wave pattern, separated from the first by an X-wave. And in some cases, the complex form will have a third three-subwave pattern.

A 2nd wave, such as the rise now underway, cannot move beyond the starting point of the preceding 1st wave. If it does, then the analysis must be changed. In the present case, the preceding 1st wave began on April 9 from 5528.75.

As can be seen by the present price — the 5450s — the 2nd wave correction is coming close to its upper limit.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows. Downtrending wave 5{-8} is underway, a subwave of wave C{-7}, also declining, which in turn is a subwave of declining wave C{-6}, with both C waves encompassed by declining wave 4{-5}, which began on December 16, 2024.

All of this is happening four-steps deep and more with wave within uptrending wave 3{-4}, which began on August 7, 2024 from 5182.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)
• 2{-9} (no name), 4/10/2025, 5146.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

11 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The Gold Futures peaked overnight at 11:15 p.m. New York time and then began to fall. The GLD exchange-traded fund also fell at the opening bell and continued to decline as the session continued. So far the price has reached below 316.

What does it mean? The discussion below uses the labeling system seen on the chart. See the section below titled “Elliiott Wave Theory wave labels”.

The end of the 5th wave that began on April 17, wave 5{-5} triggers a series wave endings all the way up to wave 3{0}, which began on November 3, 2022 from 150.57.

Wave 3{0} has now begun wave 4{0}, a downward correction, which is now in its first subwave, wave A{-1}. All the waves smaller that wave. And at this point, every former 5th wave from wave 5{-1} to wave 5{-6} is now an A wave with the same degree.

I’ve seen cascades happen before when applying Elliott Wave Theory. This one stands among the larger.

My initial reaction was a heartfelt “No way!” The political and economic forces that coincided with GLD’s race to the top are still with us: Ever-changing tariff policies that are likely to raise prices and make shipping less certain, along with President Trump’s expressed wishes that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eave the Fed before his term expires next year.

I then stepped back and recalled a key tennant of Elliott Wave Theory: Events don’t steer markets. Neither does policy. Markets are steered by the mass psychology of crowds. And sometimes the crowds do what’s expected, and sometimes their combined judgment takes another past.

Where we stand. If the crowd wills it, a months long downward correction phase will ensue, as each degree works through its corrective waves. And for traders, there will be ups and downs, providing opportunity. Each correction usually has three subwaves (some have more). My personal favorite waves to trade are waves 3, 5, and C.

The waves in the vast fractal field will have plenty of each.

Aternative. Or, the price might turn around and move higher, erasing all of the above. All will return to wave 3{0} encompassing a series of 5th waves. Could happen. Elliott Wave Theory doesn’t read the future, only the possibilities.

[Gold futures, 12:10 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to the 5530s and then pulled back a little. Elliott Wave Theory: The rising final subwave, wave C, within a 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5170s to the 5240s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The declining 5th wave that began on April 17 ended on April 21 at 5127.25. In reaching its end, it also brought to an end its parent C wave, and the B wave one degree larger in the fractal structure of the chart. All of it is happening within a 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10 from 5146.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 20-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows. Downtrending wave 5{-8} is underway, a subwave of wave C{-7}, also declining, which in turn is a subwave of declining wave C{-6}, with both C waves encompassed by declining wave 4{-5}, which began on December 16, 2024.

Within wave 5{-8}, the second subwave, rising wave 2{-9} is underway and is in rising wave C{-10}.

Wave C{-10} is in its initial subwave, wave A{-11}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

Welcome to Gold. This is the first issue of my daily analysis of GLD, the exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the price of gold bullion. In the gold analyses, I shall use both the ETF and the futures, whifh trade overnight

11 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The Gold Futures rose when trading resumed overnight, and the exchange-traded fund GLD rose as the opening bell sounded, from 313.95 to 316.33 in the first 40 minutes of the session. It then reversed, dropping below 315.

What does it mean? Elliiott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise is a continuation of an uptrending 5th wave that began on April 17 from 302.71. The parent wave is a larger uptrending 5th wave that began on April 14 from 294.48

Encompassing both is a larger uptrending 5th wave that began on April 7 from 272.58.

The end of smallest of the 5th waves will cascade up the fractal change, signaling the end from the smallest all the way up to the 5th wave that began at the start of 2024. The downward correction that follows will dominate GLD’s path for quite a long time.

[Gold futures, 11:10 a.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows:

Within rising wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2} through 5{-5} are underway. When the smallest of the 5th waves, wave 5{-5} ends, all the 5th waves will end, up to wave 5{-1}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• GLD exchange-traded fund:
• 3{+1} Primary, 12/17/2015, 100.23 (up)
• 3{0} Intermediate, 11/3/2022, 150.57 (up)
• 5{−1} Minor, 1/2/2024, 181.31 (up)
• 5{−2} Minute, 3/1/2024, 259.34 (up)
• 5{−3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 286.74 (up)
• 2{−4} Micro, 2/1/2025, ~245.00 (down)
• 3{−4} Micro, 2/22/2025, ~278.00 (up)
• 4{−4} Micro, 2/26/2025, ~268.00 (down)
• 5{−4} Micro, 3/21/2025, ~289.00 (up)
• 1{−5} Submicro, 3/21/2025, ~289.00 (up)
• 5{−5} Submicro, 4/7/2025, 286.74 (up)
• B{-6} Minuscule, 4/17/2025, 302.73

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 21 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com