3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed its rise, reaching 5554.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave C within a 4th-wave upward correction continues. I’ve updated the chart in the Revised Analysis section.

9:57 a.m. New York time

The Revised Analysis I’ve revised the analysis of the chart, changing everything from April 7 to the present as subwaves of a rising 4th-wave correction (wave 4{-8} on the chart). Present wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} is underwqy.,

I’ve retained the earlier chart to allow easy comparison.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked at 5553 overnight and then retreated back to the 5480s.

What does it mean?  I’ve attempted to apply Elliott Wave Theory to the subwaves of the present rising wave C within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10.

C waves have five subwaves. The difficuty with the pattern is that there is little to distinguish the 1st subwave from the 3rd. Another way of saying it is that threre is no clear 2nd wave. The 4th wave, by contrast, has great clarity.

So, now underway, wave 5 within the C wave. The upward correction is in its final wave, unless it forms a complex pattern, with two or three A-B-C patterns.

And yet, there’s a problem. A firm rule of Elliott Wave Theory declares that a 2nd wave never moves beyond the beginning of the preceding 1st wave. The 1st wave began on April 9 from 5528.75. The 2nd wave peaked at 5553 overnight. The rule has been broken, and It’s back to the drawing board to reanalyze everythng that has happened since April 9.

No time for the work before postng. I will post an update when the work is complete.

Revised: See new chart above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the revised chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 4{-8} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}., having paused for corrective wave 4{-10}. Wave 5{-10} has begun.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Note: This list has been revised based on the chart analysis revision.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 4{-8} (no name), 3/7/2025, 48322 (up)
• C{-9} (no name), 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

12:50 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The GLD exchange-traded fund slipped from 307.44 at the opening bell down to 304.71

What does it mean? The pattern seem through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory is compatible with wave A ending on April 23, two days after the Apri 21 peak put an end to a number of rising impulse waves. Under this, my principle analysis, rising wave B is underway.

Bottom fishing on a stock chart often results in multiple possibilities. If the price reverses and falls below 300.59, then an alternative analysis comes into play: Wave A is still underway.

All of this is happening within a series of downward corrective waves that began on April 21.

[Gold futures, 2:35 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching beyond the April 23 high, 5499.75, reaching 5514.75 before dropping back.

The break above yesterday’s high confirmed the principal analysis: Rising wave C, the final subwave of the wave 2 upward correction, is underway. The alternative analysis posted this morning? Not happening.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight and thern rose, retracing a Fibonacci 78.6% of the decline.

What does it mean? The rise, analyzed using Elliott Wave Theory, leaves unanswered whether yesterday’s analysis was correct: The decline was a correction contained with the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10.

I intend to stick with that analysis until I see greater evidence to the contrary. For the present, the principal analysis is the ongoing wave 2 scenario, and the alternative analysis has wave 2 ending on April 23 at 5499.75 and wave 3 beginning.

Under the principal analysis, look for a quick reversal to the downside as downtrending wave 3 picks up energy. Under the alternative analysis, look for a rapid push against 5499.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 2{-9} is underway, having paused for corrective wave of the {-10} degree.

Alternative analysis: Upward correction wave 2{-9} ended on April 23 and downtrending wave 3{-9} is underway.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)
• 2{-9} (no name), 4/10/2025, 5146.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

2:35 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The GLD exchange-traded fund continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 300.59.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline as wave within a series of A waves, each larger than the one before, all the way up to a 4th wave. All of the waves began on April 21 from 322.52 after a smaller 5th wave reached its end, triggering the end of all the other in the fractal ladder, all encompassed by a 3rd wave that began on November 3, 2022 from 150.57.

The smaller wave A — labeled wave A{-4} — will be followed by a rising B wave and then a falling C wave.

The end of the 5th wave that began on April 17, wave 5{-5} triggers a series wave endings all the way up to wave 3{0}, which began on November 3, 2022 from 150.57.

Wave 3{0} has now begun wave 4{0}, a downward correction, which is now in its first subwave, wave A{-1}. All the waves smaller that wave. And at this point, every former 5th wave from wave 5{-1} to wave 5{-6} is now an A wave with the same degree.

I’ve seen cascades happen before when applying Elliott Wave Theory. This one stands among the larger.

My initial reaction was a heartfelt “No way!” The political and economic forces that coincided with GLD’s race to the top are still with us: Ever-changing tariff policies that are likely to raise prices and make shipping less certain, along with President Trump’s expressed wishes that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eave the Fed before his term expires next year.

I then stepped back and recalled a key tennant of Elliott Wave Theory: Events don’t steer markets. Neither does policy. Markets are steered by the mass psychology of crowds. And sometimes the crowds do what’s expected, and sometimes their combined judgment takes another past.

Where we stand. If the crowd wills it, a months long downward correction phase will ensue, as each degree works through its corrective waves. And for traders, there will be ups and downs, providing opportunity. Each correction usually has three subwaves (some have more). My personal favorite waves to trade are waves 3, 5, and C.

The waves in the vast fractal field will have plenty of each.

Aternative. Or, the price might turn around and move higher, erasing all of the above. All will return to wave 3{0} encompassing a series of 5th waves. Could happen. Elliott Wave Theory doesn’t read the future, only the possibilities.

[Gold futures, 2:35 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures stalled its decline in the 5380s, rising slightly and then fall slightly but making no progress in either direction.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline is a downward correction within wave C, the final subwave of the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10. Or, an alternative, the high before the deline was the end of wave C and the correction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5370s to the 5450s.

What does it mean? In light of Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 20 continues to work its way through what is likely its final subwave, wave C.

All of this is encompassed within wave 5{-8}, a downtrending impulse wave that began on April 9.

I say “likely the final subwave” because some corrections take a complex form, with one A-B-C subwave pattern being followed by a second three-wave pattern, separated from the first by an X-wave. And in some cases, the complex form will have a third three-subwave pattern.

A 2nd wave, such as the rise now underway, cannot move beyond the starting point of the preceding 1st wave. If it does, then the analysis must be changed. In the present case, the preceding 1st wave began on April 9 from 5528.75.

As can be seen by the present price — the 5450s — the 2nd wave correction is coming close to its upper limit.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows. Downtrending wave 5{-8} is underway, a subwave of wave C{-7}, also declining, which in turn is a subwave of declining wave C{-6}, with both C waves encompassed by declining wave 4{-5}, which began on December 16, 2024.

All of this is happening four-steps deep and more with wave within uptrending wave 3{-4}, which began on August 7, 2024 from 5182.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)
• 2{-9} (no name), 4/10/2025, 5146.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

11 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The Gold Futures peaked overnight at 11:15 p.m. New York time and then began to fall. The GLD exchange-traded fund also fell at the opening bell and continued to decline as the session continued. So far the price has reached below 316.

What does it mean? The discussion below uses the labeling system seen on the chart. See the section below titled “Elliiott Wave Theory wave labels”.

The end of the 5th wave that began on April 17, wave 5{-5} triggers a series wave endings all the way up to wave 3{0}, which began on November 3, 2022 from 150.57.

Wave 3{0} has now begun wave 4{0}, a downward correction, which is now in its first subwave, wave A{-1}. All the waves smaller that wave. And at this point, every former 5th wave from wave 5{-1} to wave 5{-6} is now an A wave with the same degree.

I’ve seen cascades happen before when applying Elliott Wave Theory. This one stands among the larger.

My initial reaction was a heartfelt “No way!” The political and economic forces that coincided with GLD’s race to the top are still with us: Ever-changing tariff policies that are likely to raise prices and make shipping less certain, along with President Trump’s expressed wishes that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eave the Fed before his term expires next year.

I then stepped back and recalled a key tennant of Elliott Wave Theory: Events don’t steer markets. Neither does policy. Markets are steered by the mass psychology of crowds. And sometimes the crowds do what’s expected, and sometimes their combined judgment takes another past.

Where we stand. If the crowd wills it, a months long downward correction phase will ensue, as each degree works through its corrective waves. And for traders, there will be ups and downs, providing opportunity. Each correction usually has three subwaves (some have more). My personal favorite waves to trade are waves 3, 5, and C.

The waves in the vast fractal field will have plenty of each.

Aternative. Or, the price might turn around and move higher, erasing all of the above. All will return to wave 3{0} encompassing a series of 5th waves. Could happen. Elliott Wave Theory doesn’t read the future, only the possibilities.

[Gold futures, 12:10 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to the 5530s and then pulled back a little. Elliott Wave Theory: The rising final subwave, wave C, within a 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5170s to the 5240s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The declining 5th wave that began on April 17 ended on April 21 at 5127.25. In reaching its end, it also brought to an end its parent C wave, and the B wave one degree larger in the fractal structure of the chart. All of it is happening within a 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10 from 5146.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 20-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows. Downtrending wave 5{-8} is underway, a subwave of wave C{-7}, also declining, which in turn is a subwave of declining wave C{-6}, with both C waves encompassed by declining wave 4{-5}, which began on December 16, 2024.

Within wave 5{-8}, the second subwave, rising wave 2{-9} is underway and is in rising wave C{-10}.

Wave C{-10} is in its initial subwave, wave A{-11}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

Welcome to Gold. This is the first issue of my daily analysis of GLD, the exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the price of gold bullion. In the gold analyses, I shall use both the ETF and the futures, whifh trade overnight

11 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The Gold Futures rose when trading resumed overnight, and the exchange-traded fund GLD rose as the opening bell sounded, from 313.95 to 316.33 in the first 40 minutes of the session. It then reversed, dropping below 315.

What does it mean? Elliiott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise is a continuation of an uptrending 5th wave that began on April 17 from 302.71. The parent wave is a larger uptrending 5th wave that began on April 14 from 294.48

Encompassing both is a larger uptrending 5th wave that began on April 7 from 272.58.

The end of smallest of the 5th waves will cascade up the fractal change, signaling the end from the smallest all the way up to the 5th wave that began at the start of 2024. The downward correction that follows will dominate GLD’s path for quite a long time.

[Gold futures, 11:10 a.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows:

Within rising wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2} through 5{-5} are underway. When the smallest of the 5th waves, wave 5{-5} ends, all the 5th waves will end, up to wave 5{-1}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• GLD exchange-traded fund:
• 3{+1} Primary, 12/17/2015, 100.23 (up)
• 3{0} Intermediate, 11/3/2022, 150.57 (up)
• 5{−1} Minor, 1/2/2024, 181.31 (up)
• 5{−2} Minute, 3/1/2024, 259.34 (up)
• 5{−3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 286.74 (up)
• 2{−4} Micro, 2/1/2025, ~245.00 (down)
• 3{−4} Micro, 2/22/2025, ~278.00 (up)
• 4{−4} Micro, 2/26/2025, ~268.00 (down)
• 5{−4} Micro, 3/21/2025, ~289.00 (up)
• 1{−5} Submicro, 3/21/2025, ~289.00 (up)
• 5{−5} Submicro, 4/7/2025, 286.74 (up)
• B{-6} Minuscule, 4/17/2025, 302.73

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 21 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

Protecting against inflation. Friday was a market holiday in the United States, a fact had forgotten into I jumped out of bed at 5 a.m. Portland, Oregon time, prepared to analyze, only to discover that no one was trading. So I wrote an essay, called “About Value“, that explained my thinking about how to protect my funds from being devalued through inflation.

One result of that holiday writing is that I’m adding gold to my daily analyses, gold being the premier hedge to inflation. It will named Trader’s Notebook: Gold, and will focus on the the gold futures (symbol: GC). My long-running S&P 500 index analyses, focusing on the S&P500 E-mini futures (symbol: ES), has been renamed Trader’s Notebook: S&P 500. Look for the first edition during the session.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to decline, reaching into the 5120s, as the middle subwave, wave 3, of the downtrending 5th wave that began on April 17 from 5371.25 continues.

On the chart, the waves labeled wave 3{-13} within downtrending wave 5{-12}.

Wave 3{-13} will be followed by an upward correcrion, wave 4{-13}, and then another downtrending wave 5{-13}, which bring wave 5{-12} to a close, along with its parent, wave C{-11}, and its grandparent, wave B{-10}, all declining waves.

Each will be followed by a rising wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined after trading resumed overnight, from 5306.75 down to the 5230s, and then rose again.

What does it mean? The decline is a downtrending 5th wave that began on April 17 from 5371.25. The 5th wave is a subwave of a C wave that began on April 15 from 5485. Encompassing it all is a 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10 from 5146.75, subwave of a larger downtrending 5th wave that began on April 9 from 5528.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 25-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows. Downtrending wave 5{-8} is underway, a subwave of wave C{-7}, also declining, which in turn is a subwave of declining wave C{-6}, with both C waves encompassed by declining wave 4{-5}, which began on December 16, 2024.

Within wave 5{-8}, the second subwave, rising wave 2{-9} is underway and is in declining wave B{-10}.

Wave B{-10} is in its final subwave, wave C{-11}, which in turn is in its final subwave, wave 5{-12}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 21, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

By Tim Bovee, April 18, 2025

I first learned about the impermanence of value on August 15, 1971, at the age of 25. I had just returned from Phu Cat Air Base in Vietnam, the final posting of my service in the Air Force during the war, and was staying with my parents in their Norman, Oklahoma home until I could get my feet on the ground.

It was not a great time to be job hunting. The last recession had ended the prior November, and I was in college again, finishing up my Bachelor’s Degree studies that had been interrupted by a draft notice from President Lyndon Johnson. Also, Mom and Dad seemed happy to have me as a house guest for a while. So I was hopeful, certain that I could wrap up my schooling and start building a career.

I was shocked to run across my Dad, sitting at his desk, sadly looking at a dollar bill. Dad was a certified public accountant and often discussed ins and outs of money. I understood some of it, and rest flew past me, as it often does when you’re 20-something.

“It’s worthless,” he said, shaking his head sadly. “It’s not worth the paper it’s printed on.” For all of his life since his war, World War II, and for all of mine since birth, a paper dollar was something that could be exchanged for gold at the rate of $35 per ounce.

But on that day, Dad sadly explained, President Nixon had changed the rules. A dollar no longer gained its value from gold, but from the full faith and credit of the United States government. He said that “full faith and credit” phrase with a hint of sarcasm in his voice.

A large part of that “full faith and credit” had been in place since 1913: The United States Federal Reserve. With the end of the gold standard, it was the Fed that played a big role in determining the value of dollar, by setting the Federal Funds rate of interest, the percentage banks could charge one another for overnight loans.

The Fed was an independent body, beyond the reach of any politician. And gradually, through periods of inflation and disinflation, we came to trust the “full faith and credit” dollar as being as good as our trust in the Federal Reserve.

Now, decades later, I see history repeating itself—only louder and riskier.

On April 17, 2025, President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social bashing the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for his caution against the Federal Open Market Committee lowering U.S interest rates, contrary to the European Central Bank’s lowering its rates for the seventh time.

“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’ Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now.”

And then came his Nixon moment, when he wrote, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

With those words, Trump planted his flag on the Fed. Powell’s term expires in May, 2026. If he is forced out earlier, the full faith and credit buttressing the dollar will no longer reside with the Federal Reserve but with the Trump White House.

I trade a lot. Stocks and options. I’ve done so for decades. and one lesson I’ve learned is that I can’t change what happens. My only choice is to adapt, trade smarter, and hope to live to trade another day. And with Trump’s words, like my father before me, I quickly swung into adaptation mode.

The question: How do I best protect that which is mine if there is no longer an independent agency keeping the value of the dollar on a steady course. The enemy of value is inflation, and the dollars I have in my wallet or in the bank or on my credit card, in my future salary or my future Social Security payments, are vulnerable to inflation.

The money needs to go elsewhere.

To protect what I’ve built, I turned to tools my father never had: AI, data modeling, and decades of trading experience.

Dad in 1971 relied on his years of study and practice to protect his funds. In 2025, I have access to brilliant devices that seemingly have access to all the knowledge in the world, available and personalized for my needs at a moment’s notice.

Here’s a table of assets and how they are likely to fare in the new “faithless and creditless” economy, from OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4o:

Asset Class / Vehicle	Pros	Cons	Confidence in Safety
Short-Term U.S. Treasuries	Still backed by U.S. government; low risk; liquid	Vulnerable to inflation if Fed mismanages rates	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High, short-term)
Series I Savings Bonds	Adjusts for inflation; U.S.-backed	Annual purchase limit; interest penalty if cashed early	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High)
Gold (GLD ETF or physical)	Hedge vs. currency debasement; centuries of value	Volatile short-term; no income; risk of regulation	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High for core holding)
Commodities (e.g., DBC ETF)	Real assets; often rise with inflation	Cyclical; may not track CPI closely; higher volatility	⭐⭐⭐ (Medium-High)
Foreign Currency / Intl Bonds	Reduces dollar dependence	Currency/geopolitical risk; less transparent	⭐⭐⭐ (Medium)
Hard Assets (land, real estate)	Tangible; income-producing; inflation hedge	Illiquid; management burden; property rights risk	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High if secure)
TIPS (Inflation-Protected Bonds)	Inflation-adjusted principal	May lag real inflation; complex taxes	⭐⭐⭐ (Medium-High)
Dividend-Aristocrat Stocks	Reliable cash flow; pricing power; defensive	Still equity risk; exposed if dollar weakens	⭐⭐ (Medium)
Bitcoin / Crypto	Decentralized; immune to central banks	Highly volatile; regulatory threats; uncertain in crises	⭐⭐ (Low-Medium)
Foreign Bank Accounts	Diversification from U.S. banking system	Complex reporting; possible access issues	⭐⭐ (Medium)
Cash (USD)	Liquid; good for emergencies	Loses value under inflation; banking system risk	⭐⭐ (Low-Medium)

My plan, initially, is to move my 90-day Treasury bills to gold, in the form of the exchange-traded fund GLD, trading in and out to avoid risk. Entering and exiting trades is free these days — no fees — so the money is fully available. I’ll invest as usual, using options as having a greater profit. I own a series I U.S. Savings Bond that I’ll continue to hold. And I’ll continue to branch out into other holdings of Medium to High safety as circumstances warrant.

I also have a whole-life insurance policy. I’ve been so impressed by its performance that I asked the AI to rank it separately. Here’s what ChatGPT-4o wrote:

Risk	Level	Why
Solvency Risk	Very Low	The issuing company is investment-grade and well-diversified. Regulators monitor solvency ratios.
Inflation Eroding Value	Moderate	The real value of both the cash surrender value and death benefit could shrink.
Currency Devaluation (USD)	Moderate	If USD weakens sharply, your policy retains nominal value but loses purchasing power.
Policy Rule Changes	Very Low	U.S. insurance law changes slowly; no expected legal shifts to affect your contract.

And that’s my plan. Everyone’s holdings are different. Preferences differ. Risk tolerances vary. But one thing is always true: no one likes to lose money.. In my view, if we end up in a society where money has no basis, not even an imaginary one like “full faith and credit” of the government, then it won’t be worth the data bits of the electronic form in which most money exists today. At best, it will be the basis for a future guarantee for currency someday. At worst, it will be a sad memory of what was a great store of value in its time.