GILD Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

Update 5/3/2017: GILD fell sharply after earnings were published and then traced a zig-zag pattern only slightly above its low in the decline. I exited a 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by7 2.9% over one day, or a -1,042% annual rate. The options positoin produced a +33.2% yield on debit for a +12,114% annual rate

 

GILD publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 12.

Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GILD’s IV stands in the 63rd percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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AAPL Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Update 5/3/2017: AAPL declined rapidly after earnings were published and then, just as rapidly, reclaimed most of the loss, ending up shortly below the short-option strike options. A sharp drop in implied volatility broad the position to my target price, and I exited at 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 1.4% over one day, or a -493% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.4% yield on debit for a +12,197% annual rate.

 

AAPL publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on May 12.

Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

AAPL’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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PFE Analysis

Tim Bovee1 Comment

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

PFE publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 12.

Implied volatility stands at 15%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

PFE’s IV stands well below my standards in its annual range, at the 5th percentile.. Relative to its most recent broad movement, volatility stands in the 53rd percentile, which meets my standards.

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AMD Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)

Update 5/8/2017: AMD gapped dramatically to the downside after earnings were published and never returned to profitability. I exited as options expiration neared.

Shares declined by 25.5% over seven days, mostly on the first day of the period, for a -1,330% annual rate. The options position produced a -100.0% loss on debit for a -5,214% annual rate.

AMD publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on May 12.

Implied volatility stands at 64%, which is 6.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

AMD’s IV stands in the 44th percentile of its annual range and the 51st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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The Week Ahead: FOMC, jobs, income, outlays, global trade

Tim Bovee

The Federal Open Market Committee ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement that may include a further increase in the federal funds rate.

The Labor Dept. will publish its monthly report on the employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m.  Expect early guessing of the top numbers based on the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payroll company on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major reports for the week:  Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.

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CVX Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

Chevron Corp. (CVX)

Update 4/28/2017: CVX rose sharply after earnings wee published and then dropped back to near the short options strike prices, allowing me to exit at 29.5% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 0.8% over one day, or a +288% annual rate. The options position produced a 41.9% yield on debit for a +15,306% annual rate.

 

CVX publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CVX’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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GM Analysis

Tim Bovee2 Comments

General Motors Co. (GM)

Update 4/28/2017: GM gapped higher at the opening bell after earnings were published and then declined sharply, ending up near its closing price the day before. I exited my position at 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed at net rise of 1.0% over one day, or a +346% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +40,758% annual rate.

 

GM publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GM’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 66th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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