3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures inched their way slightly higher during the session, reaching into the 680s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Nothing in the day’s movement brought clarity to the ambiguities of the morning’s trading. Is it fallng wave D{-7} making an upward correction, or rising wave E{-7} pushing toward highter highs?

With the Federal Open Market Committee potentially making a decision on interest rates on Wednesday of next week, we can hope for an impetus that will help us better grasp the chart’s structure.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures whipsawed up to 6837.25 and then down to 6810.25 in the minuts following the release of the Consumer Price Index.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis is ambiguous. Wave 4, an upward correction is underway. It’s next-to-the-last subwave, downward wave D, is in a large rising corrective subwave.

What seems likely is that the rising subwave within wave D ended at today’s peak, and wave D has resumed its declline.

But it’s also possible that October 22 low point, 6690.75, was the end of a truncated wave D, and the subsequent rise was wave E, the final subwave within wave 4.

I’ve chosen, without a great deal of conviction, to consider declining wave D as being underway. But if it is the alternative that’s underway, that wave D completed its decline two days ago and wave E ended at the overnight peak, then the subsequent movement also be a decline. I don’t see the question being resolved quickly.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • D{-7} Minscule, 10/21/2025, 6789.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 24, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures worked their way higher during the session, reaching into the 6780s so far.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise is a the middle subwave within declining wave D, the next-to-the-last subwave, within a rising upward correction, wave 4.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low overnight of 6717.50, rose to 6751, and then fell back into the 6710s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees declining wave D within a 4th-wave upward correction continuing. Wave 4 is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • D{-7} Minscule, 10/21/2025, 6789.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall rapidly during the session, reaching down to 6690.75 so far.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline is the next-to-the-last subwave — wave D — within a 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 6.

The correction is taking the form of an expanding diagonal triangle, and expect wave D to fall below the starting point of the risng C wave, which was 6571.25 on October 17.

After wave D, a final, rising wave, wace E, will complete the wave 4 upward correction, travelling higher than the starting point of wave D, 6789.75.

A downtrending 5th wave will follow the correction and most likely will carry the price below the end of the declining 3rd wave, 6540.25.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fluctuate overnight, covering 24 points while going nowhere.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged from yesterday: Wave C{-7} continues, the middle subwave with the upward expanding-triangle correction, wave 4{-6}, that began on October 10.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • D{-7} Minscule, 10/21/2025, 6789.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures, having barely budged overnight, continued to trade narrowly during the session, remaining between 6759.25 and 6789.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C within an uptrending 4th-wave correction continues. Wave 4 has taken the shape of an expanding Diagonal Triangle, which will have five subwaves.

In this morning’s analysis I wrote that wave 4 will end when wave C does. That was an error. Wave 4 will end with wave E in the Diagonal Triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures scarcelly moved overnigt, declining 22 points and then rertracing about half of the distance

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis hasn’t changed from yesterday’s. Wave C within a 4th-wave upward correction continues. The end of wave 4 will be the beginning of a downtrending 5th wave.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minscule, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 21, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures has risen but slightly since my update of the analysis three hours and 15 minutes ago.

Elliott Wave Theory: The analysis has changed not at all. See the upper table, posted at 12:15 p.m. The lower table is outdated but I kept it so readers can easily see the changes.

12:15 p.m. New York time

Chart Interpretation updated. The futures’ rise that continued into the session this morning rose too far moving above the October 15 high and thereby breaking a rule of Elliott Wave Theory. As always, when the analysis no longer matches the reality on the chart, it’s time to make a change.

Under the new analysis, wave 4{-6}, a rising correction, is underway, and within it wave C[-7} is underway, the middle wave of a 5-wave sequence, waves A through E, in the form of an Expanding Diagonal Triangle.

See the new chart just below. I’ve retained this morning’s chart for comparison.

[Updated: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose soon after trading resumed overnight, from 6694 into the 6740s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that wave A within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on October 17 is still underway, although it is close to its endpoint. A declining wave B will follow, and then a rising wave C. Under most circumstances, wave C will be the end of parent wave 2. (On rare occasions a correction will take a complex form, containing two or three triple-wave corrective patterns. No sign of that here yet)

[Outdated: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

[Updated] These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minscule, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 20, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6710s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave A, the first subwave of a 2nd-wave upward correction that began today, is now underway and the A-wave is in its 5th and final subwave. Declining wave B will follow, followed by risng wave C, which likely will end the 2nd wave.and open a down-trending 3rd wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnigt, from 6571.25 reaching up to the 6670s so far.

What does it mean? The downtrending 5th wave that began on October 16 — wave 5{-6} — ended overnight at 6571.25. The end of that that, when Elliott Wave Theory is applied, is also the end of wave 1{-5} and the beginning of a rising 2nd-wave correction, wave 2{-5} and within it wave A{-6}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 37-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • A{-6} Submicro, 10/17/2025, 6751.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 17, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 6750.50 and then reversed, so far declining into the 6630s, with more decline to come.

Elliott Wave Theory. For this discussion I’ll use the label form that appears on my charts: Wave number with a subscript in curly brackets showing the degrees distande from Intermediate degree (presently wave 1{0}, which began on October 8 from 6812.25).

The peak marked the end of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10 — wave 4{-6). Downtrending wave 5{-6} is now underway, at a rapid pace, and appears to now be in its final subwave, wave 5{-7}.

Alternatively, it could possibly be nearing the end of its first subwave, wave 1{-7} within wave 5{-6}, with wave 5{-8}, one degree lower, now underway. Time will tell which analysis fits the reality of the chart.

When wave 5[-6} is complete, it will be the end of wave 1{-5} and the beginning of an upward correction, wave 2{-5}. A 2nd wave correction, more often than not, takes the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves in wave A{-6}. Wave B{-6} will have three subwaves, and wave C{-6} will have five subwaves, whether the form of the correction is a Zigzag or a Flat, the latter being commonly found in 4th waves but sometimes in 2nd wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked its way higher over night, from 6502.50 to the 6740s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the present rise that began on October 15 as being a low-degree 5th wave, the final subwave of a C wave that began on October 14.

The C wave in turn is a subwave of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10.

When wave 4 is complete, a downtending 5th wavewill begin, carrying the price into the 6540s, most likely, and perhaps well below that.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25(down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/16/2025, 6750.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 16, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined further during the session and then retraced a portion of the fall.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C{-7} continues its rise within wave 4{-6}, and the smaller C wave is nearing its end. It is now in wave 4{-8}, its next-to-the-last subwave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6683.50 so far reaching into the 6740s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees wave C as being underway, the final subwave in a 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10 from 6340.25.

When wave 4 is complete, downtrending wave 5 will begqn, most like carrying the price below the wave 4 starting point, perhaps significantly so.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25(down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 15, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6720s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise is wave C, the 3rd and likely the final wave within the 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10. When wave C is complete, it will likely be the end of wave 4, unless it takes a complex form with two or three three-wave corrective patterns. Wave 4 will be followed by downtrending wave 5, which will most likely carry the price into the 6450s and perhaps lower.

[Surprised by the sudden change in the analysis? Read my essay posted on October 12, titled “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’.“]

12:00 a.m. New York time

Correction notice. I mean a big correction. Like everyone else, I have no real experience with a broad decline spanning many degrees. Yet that’s what we have had since October 8. Bottom line: My inexperience led me into a horrendous error. I forgot that impulse waves tend to move in the direction of the trend, which is now down since October 8. I also forgot that every correction must be housed within an numbered corrective wave within the larger impulse wave.

I’ve corrected the chart, blushing as I work, and the analysis below to comform.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed overnight, falling from 6718.50 and so far almost reaching 6600.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott wave theory, wave 5{-6} is now underway, the final subwave of declining wave 1{-5], which began on October 8. When wave 1{-5} is complete, an 2nd-wave upward correction will begin.

I

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25(down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/13/2025, 6718.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 14, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York timw

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded sideways during most of the session, from the 6650s to the 6710s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B within the downward correction that began on October 8 is presently underway. It will be followed by a falling C wave that will completing the corrective pattern.

Alternative analysis: In my present numbering, I’ve treated wave A as being a Flat, with three subwaves. It’s possible that it is instead forming a Zigzag pattern, with five subwaves. Using the nomenclature on the chart: That would mean that wave A{-5} would instead be wave 3{-6} within wave A{-5}, with waves 4{-6} and 5{-6} to follow before wave A{-5} reaches its end.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures ended a runaway decline on Friday, October 10 and began to rise, and continued rising after trading resumed Sunday evening, October 12.

The Elliott Wave Theory wave structures are quite different from how we left them on Friday.

The long decline that began on October 8 broke a rule of the theory. At its start the fall was a declining 5th wave finshing off wave C, a subwave of a 4th-wave upward correction. Once the rule was broken when the C wave moved beyond the start of the preceding A wave, the analysis had to change. The only way to fix the broken rule was to separate the subwave from the rise of which it was a part.

One change is the analysis — a relabelling in January 2022 — fixed the problem, turning the rapid decline into a thing of its own, unrelated to the preceding rise that had ended on October 8.

I wrote an essay this weekend describng the search for a solution, the fix itself, and it’\s implication both for the future and how we see the history of the market.

The essay, which was published on Sunday, October 12, also unveiled a startling event: The uptrending wave that began at the end of the Great Recession in 1932 had ended on October 8, 2025, signalling the start of a very large, very long decllne that will last for a century, more or less, composed at lower degrees of the usual alteration between bull markets and bear markets.

The title is “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Says ‘Yes’“.

As for the decline, wave A{-4} has completed it’s first subwave, falling wave A{-5}, and has moved on to the second subwave, rising wave B{-5}, as the rhythm of Elliott Wave Theory moves the market, and us, into a new phase.

Could this be wrong? Time will let us know. If wave A{-4} reverses and rises above the October 8 peak, 6812.25, then a new reanalysis is wrong and wave 5{-5} and the other,larger 5th waves are still underway, and we still have the problem of the broken rule.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 37-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • A{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • A{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • A{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • A{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • A{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • A{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • A{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • A{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • A{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 13, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com