3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a few points below the overnight low during the session and then rose, reaching a session high so far of 4399.

The rise provides confirmation that the third leg of the upward correction, the C wave, is now underway.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low of 4366 overnight and then rose back into the 4390s.

What does it mean? The decline brought the price to within $16 of starting point of the upward correction that began on August 18, from 4350. Had the price fallen below that level, it would have discredited the present Principal Analysis and replaced it with Alternative #1, a scenario that the 2nd wave upward correction ended on September 14 and a 3rd have downtrend has begun.

However, the line remained uncrossed, and the Principal Analysis scenario is that the 2nd wave continues, the corrective pattern is in its 3rd and final leg, a C wave, and the overnight low was the end of a wave B{-4}, the middle leg of the corrective pattern.

The rise that followed is the 3rd leg, wave C, and is still underway. It’s end will also be the completion of the corrective pattern.

At that point, one of two things will happen: Either the end of the corrective pattern will also be the end of the upward correction — the likeliest scenario — or the correction will take a compound form, in which the first corrective pattern will be followed by a declining connector wav and then by a second corrective pattern. Compound corrections can contain as many as three corrective patterns.

Whatever form the 2nd wave upward correction takes, it will be followed by a 3rd wave downtrend that will fall below 4350 and almost certainly far below that price.

I’ve overlaid the chart with the Fibonacci ladder, in red, the better to understand how much of the preceding 1st wave has been retraed by the correction. The A-wave peak, 4566, was close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and if wave C is typical, it wil reach or exceed that level;.

What are the alternatives? Two other interpretations are possible.

It’s possible that the entire corrective pattern within wave 2{-3} ended at the September 14 high. If so, then there are two possibilities.

Alternative #1

The upward correction ended on September 14 and a powerful 3rd wave downtrend has begun and is in its initial subwave. The downtrend will have five subwaves altogether. If the price goes below 4350, this scenario will become the Principal Analysis.

Alternative #2

The correction is taking a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns. The present decline is a wave that will connect the now complete first corrective pattern with a second corrective pattern.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began on August 18 and is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-4}.
• The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves within wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis #1

• Wave 2(-3} ended on September 14.
• The decline that followed is downtrending wave wave 3{-3}.

Alternative Analysis #2

• Wave 2(-3}’s first corrective pattern ended on September 14 and the upward correction continues, taking a compound form.
• The decline that followed is wave X{-4}, connecting the completed first corrective with a future second corrective pattern.

Big picture:

• The wave 3{-2} downtrend is a subwave of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 22, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York Time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continue to fall during the session, reaching into the 4370s so far.

This morning’s analysis is unchanged. Wave C{-5} within wave B{-4} within the downward correction, wave 2{-3}, continues. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell continually overnight, from the 4440s to just above 4400 so far.

What does it mean? There are three ways of interpreting the chart. The following discussion will require the use of wave labels as they appear on the chart. See the “Reading the chart” section below.

Under my principal analysis, wave 2{-3}, a downward correction that began on August 18, continues and is in its second subwave, falling wave B{-4}. The B wave in turn is in its 3rd and final subwave, wave C{-5}.

Wave B{-4} will be followed by rising wave C{-4}, the final wave in the corrective pattern, which will likely carry the price above the wave A{-4} end point, 4566.

This scenario implies a limit. The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Zigzag, and under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, no B wave in a Zigzag can move below the start of the preceding A wave. That level is 4350 in this case, and if the price moves below that level, then the principal analysis will be invalidated and the chart will require reanalysis.

When wave 2{-3} is complete, it will be followed by a powerful downtrend, wave 3{-3}, which will carry the price below 4350, and likely significantly lower.

The Fibonacci retracement ladder is shown on the chart in red. It tracks wave 2{-3}’s percentage retracement of the preceding wave 1{-3}, which began its decline on July 27 from 4634.50. The decline has carried the price back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from a starting point close to the 78.6% Fib level.

What are the alternatives? Two other interpretations are possible.

It’s possible that the entire corrective pattern within wave 2{-3} ended at the September 14 high. If so, then there are two possibilities.

Alternative #1

Wave 2{-3} ended on September 14 and a powerful downtrend, wave 3{-3}, has begun and is in its initial subwave, wave 1{-4}. It will have five subwaves altogether.

Alternative #2

Wave 2{-3} is taking a compound form, containing two or three corrective patterns. The present decline is wave X{-4}, a wave that will connect the now complete first corrective pattern with a second corrective pattern.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began on August 18 and is in its middle subwave, declining wave B{-4}.
• The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves within wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis #1

• Wave 2(-3} ended on September 14.
• The decline that followed is downtrending wave wave 3{-3}.

Alternative Analysis #2

• Wave 2(-3}’s first corrective pattern ended on September 14 and the upward correction continues, taking a compound form.
• The decline that followed is wave X{-4}, connecting the completed first corrective with a future second corrective pattern.

Big picture:

• The wave 3{-2} downtrend is a subwave of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 21, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply after the Federal Open Market Committee said it would keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged for now. The price continued to work its way lower, reaching into the 4460s as the closing bell approached,.

The decline confirms this configuration of waves in progress: The 3rd subwave, wave C{-5}, within the larger middle subwave, wave B{-4}, within the upward correction, wave 2{-3}, that began on August 18.

The configuration is unchanged from this morning’s analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to the 4480s overnight and then rose back above 4500.

What does it mean? The price has largely fluctuated around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level since September 15 as the middle leg of an upward correction that began on August 18 continues.

The correction is a 2nd wave and internally it is in the B subwave, which in turn is in its smaller C subwave.

Within the B wave, the C subwave is the last of the three subwaves. When it is complete, the larger B subwave will also be complete. The final leg of the corrective pattern will follow, a rising C wave.

The end of the corrective pattern may also be the end of the 2nd wave correction. It could also be the first of two or three corrective patterns if the correction takes a compound form.

When the 2nd wave correction is complete, it will be followed by a powerful downtrending 3rd wave.

What are the alternatives? It’s possible that the entire corrective pattern ended at the September 14 high. If so, then either the 3rd wave downtrend has begun or the connector wave in a compound correction is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began on August 18 and is in its middle subwave, declining wave B{-4}.
• The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves within wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis.

• Wave 2(-3} ended on September 14.
• The decline that followed is either downtrending wave wave 3{-3} or a connector wave X{-4} within a compound correction.

Big picture:

• The wave 3{-2} downtrend is a subwave of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 20, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to 4462.25 during the session, coming close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and then reversed, approaching 4500.

The B wave within the present 2nd wave downward correction can be expected to have three subwaves, and the decline gives the chart all three: down — sideways with a small upward movement — down further.

The question yet to be answered is whether or not that “down further” subwave is in fact complete. If yes, then I expect a rise back into the 4560s and perhaps higher. If not, then I expect a drop back into the low 4460s and perhaps lower.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded narrowly overnight, remaining close to the 4500 mark.

What does it mean? The price kept the upward correction that began on August 18 slightly above the 50% retracement level until the opening bell aproached, and then fell below that level.. The 2nd wave correction is in its declining B wave, the middle subwave of three.

The corrective pattern has taken the form of a Zigzag. Under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, the price will remain 4350, the start of the correction. If the price moves below that level, then the analysis no longer matches the chart and will be redone.

The B wave, when complete, will be followed by a rising C wave that llkely will carry the price above the correction high set by the A wave, 4566.

When wave C is complete, either a powerful downtrend, a 3rd wave, will begin, or a connector, an X wave, will link the completed first corrective pattern with a corrective pattern within a compound correction.

What are the alternatives? It’s possible that the entire corrective pattern ended at the September 14 high. If so, then either the 3rd wave downtrend has begun or the connector wave in a compound correction is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 o.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began on August 18 and is in its middle subwave, declining wave B{-4}.
• The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves within wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis.

• Wave 2(-3} ended on September 14.
• The decline that followed is either downtrending wave wave 3{-3} or a connector wave X{-4} within a compound correction.

Big picture:

• The wave 3{-2} downtrend is a subwave of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 19, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose by nearly 30 points during the session and then dropped back slightly, remaining above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

This morning’s analysis stands unchanged. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures initially traded sideways overnight and then began to fall, from slightly above 4500 down into the 4480s.

What does it mean? The middle of three subwaves within an upward 2nd wave correction that began on August 18 continues, reaching below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. (The Fibonacci ladder is shown on the chart in red.)

That middle wave is a declining B wave that began on September 14 from 4566. It will be followed by a rising C wave that most likely will rise above the B wave’s starting point and will complete the corrective pattern.

What is the alternative? It’s possible that the entire corrective pattern ended at the September 14 high. If so, then either a 3rd wave downtrend has begun or the upward correction is taking a compound form, with two or three corrective patterns within it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began on August 18 and is in its middle subwave, declining wave B{-4}.
• The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves within wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis.

• Wave 2(-3} ended on September 14.
• The decline that followed is either downtrending wave wave 3{-3} or a connector wave X{-4} within a compound correction.

Big picture:

• The wave 3{-2} downtrend is a subwave of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 18, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching the 4490s, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

The strength of the decline suggests that the overnight peak, 4566, was the end of the first subwave, wave A{-4}, within the upward correction, wave 2{-3}, that began on August 18. As a result, I’ve promoted this morning’s alternative analysis to the position of principal analysis. Wave B{-4}, the declining middle subwave, is now in progress.

A B-wave is subject to two rules in Elliott Wave Theory.

• If it’s a Zigzag pattern, with five subwaves within the A-wave, then the B-wave cannot fall beyond the starting point of the A wave. In this case, that would set an absolute lower limit of 4350.
• If it’s a Flat pattern, with three subwaves in the A-wave, then the B wave must retrace at least 90% of the previous A-wave. In this case, that sets an absolute minimum decline to 4371.75.

On the chart, I’ve labeled five subwaves within wave A{-4}. That’s the count of a Zigzag. If I squint my eyes real hard, after a couple of beers, I can see a way to count three subwaves total within wave A{-4}, the count of a Flat.

The Zigzag seems to me to be the best match for the reality of the chart. But of course, I’ve had charts overturn best matches before, and no doubt will again. So I shall treat the Flat scenario as an alternative analysis.

I’ve updated the chart, retaining its Zigzag scenario labeling.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from the 4560s to the 4540s, and fell further as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? At its high point the price came to within 10 points of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a common reversal point for corrections, such as the one now underway. (The Fibonacci ladder appears on the chart in red.)

The upward correction that began on August 18, a 2nd wave, is now in the 5th subwave of its 1st of three segments of a corrective pattern. The present rising A wave will be followed by a declining B wave and a rising C wave that will complete the corrective pattern.

The present A wave has taken a month so far, suggesting that the corrective pattern will likely continue into the depths of winter. No guarantees, of course. Although waves within a pattern tend to be of roughly similar magnitude, there can still be quite a bit of variety among them.

What is the alternative? It is possible that the overnight peak, 4566, was the end of the A wave and that the B wave has begun. Promoted to the principal analysis in the afternoon posting.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses, updated for the afternoon.

Principal Analysis:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began on August 18 and is in its middle subwave, declining wave B{-4}.
• The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Zigzag, with five subwaves within wave A{-4}.

Alternative Analysis:

• The corrective pattern is taking the form of a Flat, with three subwaves within wave A{-4}.

Big picture:

• The wave 3{-2} downtrend is a subwave of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 15, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m.New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. A major reanalysis of the S&P 500 futures, the second in one day.

The futures rose above 4745.75, for a second time violating a rule of Elliott Wave Theory: A 2nd wave can’t move above the start of the preceding 1st wave of the same degree. If it does, then something else is going on. The map no longer matches the territory and must be redrawn. The analysis no longer matches the chart and must be revised.

As was the case with this morning’s revision, and all of the revisions I recall over\r the past few years, the relative size of waves within the fractal structure — their degree — is where the map’s precision fails In Elliott wave analysis there is no certainty about the degree until later events unfold. Before then, the degree is a guess. And that is why in every Trader’s Notebook edition that I post contains a caveat: “Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy.” Which is doubly true today.

In the discussion that follows I’ll be using the labeling system that appears on the chart. For a brief explanation of how it works, see the “Reading the chart” section further down.

The revision was triggered on the futures when wave 2{-4}, an upward correction, moved above the starting point of wave 1{-4}, a peak attained on July 27. Such a breakout hasn’t occurred on the S&P 500 index.

In this analysis I’ve chosen to go with the futures. The futures have risen less than cents above what was the wave 1[-4} starting point, staying within their 25-cent minimum move. However, the index, with a 1-cent minimum move, remains more than 100 points below the corresponding starting point.

That tells me that something real is happening over and above the granularity of the two products. The continual trading of the futures provide information missing from the index, and then lends credence to the futures. Could that be the wrong choice? Of course, and if it is we’ll all find out as the price progresses. Meanwhile, it’s an anomaly, a coin toss, and as the coin rose I called futures.

Going forward, the main implication of the new analysis is that the present upward correction is larger than it first appeared to be. The upward potential will be with us longer, and the net major downtrend has been pushed further into the future.

But the downtrend will arrive, eventually,and the key syllable is “trend”, A trend is always more powerful than a correction, and as a trader who is profoundly averse to a buy-and-hold strategy, I tend to treat my trades during a correction as short-term ventures.

Here’s the revised chart. I’ve kept this morning’s chart below for readers wanting to compare the two.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

Here are the changes I’ve made in this afternoon’s analysis:

• Within wave 2{-3}, an upward correction that began on August 18…
  • The rise that began on August 18 has been changed from being in its third and final wave, wave C{-4}, to being in wave A{-4}, its first subwave.
  • The September 1 peak, which had been labeled wave A{-5}, the first subwave of the correction, has been labeled as wave C{-5}, a subwave of wave A{-4}, the first subwave of the wave 2{-3} upward correction.
  • The September 7 low, previously labeled as wave 1{-1}, the end of the first subwave of a downtrend, wave 3{-3}, which began on September 1, is now the end of wave D{-5}, the fourth of five subwaves within wave A{-4}, the first subwave of the wave 2{-3} upward correction.

Basically, everything was shifted up a degree, which required some smaller changes.

Here is revised Principal analysis summary:

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 and is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 2{-3}, an upward correction, began on August 18 and is in its first subwave, wave A{-4}.
• Wave A{-4} is in its final subwave, rising wave E{-5}.

I’ve known people who reject Elliott wave analysis because it’s analysis can require revision at the drop of a hat. Their observation is true, and I think of it as being both the gift and the curse of Elliott Wave Theory. A gift because unlike other methods, Elliott clearly signals when its wrong. A curse because things are often uncertain, and that can make analysis difficult.

10:25 a.m. New York time

BSX options exit. I’ve exited my short iron condor position on BSX for a 100% profit and have updated the entry analysis with full details.

10 a.m. New York time

Note: This morning’s analysis, below, has been overtaken by events. See the afternoon analysis, above, ofr a discussion of what has changed.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, moving above the September11 high of 4543.50 as the opening bell approached and touched the September 1 high, 4547.75. The S&P 500 index moved above its September 11 high, 4490.27, but remained well below its September 1 high, 4541.25.

What does it mean? Under the rules of Elliott wave analysis, a 2nd wave cannot move above the beginning of the preceding 1sst wave. If it a does, then the chart must be revised.

The higher high means that the 2nd wave upward correction that began on September 7 is still underway on both the futures and the index charts. The 3rd wave downtrend that began on September 1 came close being eclipsed by a higher high on the futures, but the rise did not move above that high, so that upward movement’s labeling remains intact.

In Elliott wave labeling terminology, here are the changes:

• Downtrending wave 3{-4} has not yet begun.
• An upward correction that began on September 7, Wave 2{-4}, is still underway.
• Wave 2{-4} internally is in wave C{-4}, the final wave of the corrective pattern.

This is all happening within a larger downtrend, wave 3{-3}, that began on September 1 and that is a subwave of a still larger downtrend, wave 3{-2}, that began on July 27.

What are the alternatives? If the price on the futures rises above its high so far today, 4547.75, it will have moved above the start of the preceding 1st wave, on September 1 from 4547.75. The index remains well bellow the peak of the corresponding1st wave.

That creates a dilemma. The futures move in 25-cent increments, and the index, in 1-cent increments. In terms of price, the index has far more granularity. However, the futures trade 24-7 except for weekends, the index trades from 9:30 a.m. to 3 p.m. New York time. In terms of time, the futures have greater completeness than does the index.

So if that peak is exceeded on the futures but not the index, which do we believe? Good question. Still thinking about it.

[Note that this chart’s anlysis has been overtaken by events. See above for the latest.]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10 a.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? This section’s Principal analysis has been outdated by a revised analysis posted in the afternoon edition. I’ve retained it for readers wanting to run a detailed comparison of the two analysis

Here are the waves that underly the analyses as laid out in the morning analysis. See above for the afternoon revision of the Principal analysis.

Principal analysis

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 3{-3}, a powerful downtrend, began on September 1 and is in its second subwave, wave 2{-4}, an upward correction that began on September 11.
• By one count, wave 2{-4} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-5}, but it’s also possible that declining wave B{-5} is still underway.

Big picture

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 14, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Today’s analysis at the market open will be delayed. The S&P 500 futures rose above the September 11 high minutes before the opening bell, and I’m revising analysis.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures worked their way back in to the 4530s during the session and then returned to below 4510.

The price completed a small trending wave containing five subwaves. I’ve altered this morning’s count by pushing those subwaves down one degree, to {-6}, making the overnight low the end of wave 1{-5}. An upward correction, wave 2{-5}, is now underway.

Otherwise, this morning’s analysis stands. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways overnight, whipsawing briefing after new inflation numbers were released and then quickly returning to the 4510s, where the price had spent most of its time since the last session closed.

At the opening bell the price rose into the 4120s.

What does it mean? The decline that began on September 11, the beginning of a 3rd wave downtrend, is now in its 3rd subwave. A 4th wave upward correction and a 5th wave decline lie ahead.

This is happening within a larger 3rd wave downtrend that began on September 1.

What are the alternatives? Corrections typically complete on corrective pattern and their done. Some corrections stretch out with two or three corrective patterns, each separated from its predecessor by a connecting wave. That could be the case here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 3{-3}, a powerful downtrend, began on September 1 and is in its third subwave, wave 3{-4}, which is downtrending.
• Internally, wave 3{-4} is now in wave 2{-5}.

Alternative analysis

• The end of wave C{-5} ends the first corrective pattern within wave 2{-4}. The subsequent decline is a connector, wave X{-5}, which will be followed by second corrective pattern in a compound correction.

Big picture

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 13, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 4539 during the session and then retreated below 4510. The price remained below the high set on September 11, which I’ve labeled as the end of the upward correction that began on September 7.

No changes to this morning’s analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell into the 4520s overnight, remaining below the September 11 high.

What does it mean? As my principal analysis I’ve chosen to consider that high, 4543.50, to be the end of the 2nd wave upward correction that began on September 7, counting the correction’s three subwaves as shown on the chart. But it’s ambiguous, and there are other ways of analyzing the price movements.

I chose the end-of-the-correction scenario because the price came so close to the start of the preceding 1st wave — a level no 2nd wave can cross — that there’s very little room for a future C wave.

What are the alternatives? There are three.

Alternative #1: The A-wave scenario

For example, one alternative sees the three subwaves of the upward correction marked on the chart as subwaves of the first leg of the correction — the A wave — within a falling B wave and a rising C wave yet to come.

Alternative #2: Just a little bit higher

I’ve marked the overnight peak as the end of the 2nd wave correction’s C wave, but it’s certainly possible for the price to reduce and move just a little bit higher while remaining below the 1st wave’s starting point.

Alternative #3: A compound correction

Corrections typically complete on corrective pattern and their done. Some corrections stretch out with two or three corrective patterns, each separated from its predecessor by a connecting wave. It could here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Here are the waves that underly the analyses.

Principal analysis

• A downtrend wave 3{-2}, began on July 27 is underway.
• Within wave 3{-2}, wave 3{-3}, a powerful downtrend, began on September 1 and is in its third subwave, wave 3{-4}, which is downtrending.

Alternative #1: The A-wave scenario

• Wave 2{-4}, the upward correction, has completed its 1st subwave, rising wave A{-5}, and now is in declining wave B{-5}, the second of three subwaves.

Alternative #2: Just a little bit higher

• The final wave of the upward correction has not yet reached its peak and will rise a few points higher before it is done. Wave C{-5} is still underway.

Alternative #3: A compound correction

• The end of wave C{-5} ends the first corrective pattern within wave 2{-4}. The subsequent decline is a connector, wave X{-5}, which will be followed by second corrective pattern in a compound correction.

Big picture:

• Both the wave 2{-2} correction and wave 3{-2} downtrend are subwaves of wave 4{-1}, a downtrend that began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 5{0}, an expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on December 26, 2018.
• Wave 4{-1} may eventually reach the lower boundary of wave 5{0}, presently slightly below 1800 and declining further each day.
• Wave 4{-1} will be followed by rising wave 5{-1}, the final wave in the Triangle.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4953.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 3{-2} Minute, 7/27/2023, 3502 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott wave analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 12, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.