The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, income, homes

The biggest, broadest overview of how the economy is doing will be published Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, the third and presumably most accurate report on the 3rd quarter gross domestic product.

Also on Thursday, Durable goods orders will be out  at 8:30 a.m. and personal income and outlays at 10 a.m.

The housing duet will be released, existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Friday, each at 10 .m.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the state of the job market at the University of Baltimore Midyear Commencement on Monday at 1:30 p.m.

The bond market closes early on Friday, at 2 p.m. All U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

 

Monday: Fed Chair Yellen speech at 1:30 p.m.

Wednesday:  Existing home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:  Durable goods ordersGDP and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m., personal income and outlays at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: New home sales and consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.84%, down  basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.

Notes

  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 10 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 10 a.m.

Bonds

  • None.

TIPS

  • 5-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

Fedsters

None but Fed Chair Yellen (see the intro).

Thought

Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage’s whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of his tribe. Civilization is the process of setting man free from men.

–Ayn Rand, The Fountainhead (1943)

Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 18, 2016

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