The Week Ahead: International trade

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the Christmas holiday.

Thereafter, it will be a very slow week, with only one economic report of exceptional importance. International trade in goods will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index in 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: International trade in goods and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.94%, up 10 basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

  • 4-week: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Notes

  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Friday.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

Bonds

  • None.

TIPS

  • 5-year: Settlement Friday.

Fedsters

Not a creature will be stirring, not even a central banker.

Thought

Scrooge: “Merry Christmas! What right have you to be merry? What reason have you to be merry? You’re poor enough.”

“Come, then,” returned the nephew gaily. “What right have you to be dismal? What reason have you to be morose? You’re rich enough.”

Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol (1843)

Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 24, 2016

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