The Week Ahead: Jobs

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the New Year’s holiday, giving traders a short week culminating in a big report.

The employment situation report will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A private-sector sneak preview, the ADP employment report, will be released on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

The Institute of Supply Managers manufacturing survey will be published on Tuesday at 10 a.m., and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Dec. 14 meeting, at which the Fed funds rate was raised by a 25 basis points.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment situation report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: U.S. markets closed.

Tuesday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., and the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. and FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m.,  petroleum inventories at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation and international trade at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.98%, up four basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

  • 4-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.

Notes

  • 2-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 5-year:Settlement Tuesday.
  • 7-year:Settlement Tuesday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Bonds

  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

TIPS

  • None.

Fedsters

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell addresses the Allied Social Sciences Associations annual meeting in Chicago on Saturday, Jan. 7, at 11:15 a.m. New York time. His topic: Low interest rates and financial markets.

Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans, a Federal Open Market Committee alternate, takes to the podium on Friday, as does Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, who has no FOMC position this year.

Thought

 

Change begets change. Nothing propagates so fast.

Charles Dickens, Martin Chuzzlewit (1844)

Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 31, 2016

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