The Week Ahead: Producer prices, retail sales

(The Week Ahead is being posted late, on Monday, due to illness. There were no major reports scheduled for Monday, although two Fedsters made public appearances. the usual short-term Treasury bill events also occurred on Monday.)

Two major economic reports, the producer price index and retail sales, will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

 

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., the Treasury budget at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Producer price index and retail sales, each at 8:30 a.m., business inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.81%, down 17 basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.

Notes

  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.

Bonds

  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

TIPS

  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Fedsters

Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday addresses educators in Washington, D.C. from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. The event will be available via a webcast.

Other Federal Open Market Committee members taking the podium are Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Monday, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Wednesday and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Thursday.

Two FOMC alternates  will be speaking: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Thursday and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Thursday and Friday

And Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, who intends to step down on Feb. 28, on Monday and Thursday

 

Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 9, 2017

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