The Week Ahead: Prices, industry, Yellen

(The Week Ahead is being posted late, on Monday, due to illness. There were no reports scheduled for Monday, when U.S. markets were closed for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Two major reports will be published on Wednesday, the consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. New York time and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

On Thursday look for housing starts at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen gives a speech to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco on Wednesday at 8 p.m. New York time. Her topic: The Goals of Monetary Policy and How We Pursue Them.

Yellen addresses the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, also in San Francisco, on Thursday at 8 p.m. Her topic: The Economic Outlook and Conduct of Monetary Policy.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Markets closed for the M.L. King holiday.

Tuesday: Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: Consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., the Home Builders housing market index at 10 a.m., the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m. and the Treasury’s international capital report at 4 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims, housing starts, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m., the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m. and Fed Chair Yellen speaks at 8 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.79%, down two basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

  • 4-week: Announcement Tuesday 11 a.m., auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.

Notes

  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Settlement Tuesday.

Bonds

  • 30-year: Settlement Tuesday.

TIPS

  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 1 p.m.

Fedsters

In addition to Fed Chair Janet Yellen‘s two addresses in San Francisco on Wednesday, a number of Fedsters will be taking to the podium during the week.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks to the Brookings Institution in Washington on Tuesday at 10 a.m. His topic: Monetary and Fiscal Policy.

One other Federal Open Market Committee member makes a public appearance during the week: New York Fed Gov. William Dudley on Tuesday.

Two FOMC alternates take to the podium: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Wednesday and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on on Friday.

A Federal Reserve bank governor who doesn’t have a position on the FOMC this year, San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, speaks on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

 

Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 16, 2017

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