The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, homes

 

Traders get a first look at gross domestic product for the 4th quarter of 2016, as well as annual statistics. The report will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other reports of significance: Durable goods orders, also on Friday at 8:30 p.m., international trade in goods on Thursday at 830 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash release on Tuesday at 9:45 a.m., and two real-estate reports, existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Thursday, each at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: PMI manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.81%, up two basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Notes

  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

Bonds

  • None.

TIPS

  • None.

Fedsters

 

The Fed glitterati are silent this week, with no public appearances on the schedule.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 22, 2017

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