Traders get a first look at gross domestic product for the 4th quarter of 2016, as well as annual statistics. The report will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
Other reports of significance: Durable goods orders, also on Friday at 8:30 p.m., international trade in goods on Thursday at 830 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash release on Tuesday at 9:45 a.m., and two real-estate reports, existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Thursday, each at 10 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.
Events arranged by day:
Tuesday: PMI manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.81%, up two basis points from a week earlier.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
- 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
The Fed glitterati are silent this week, with no public appearances on the schedule.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 22, 2017