INTC Analysis

Tim Bovee7 Comments

Intel Corp. (INTC)

Update 2/15/2017: INTC declined after earnings were published and then began to rise again, albeit slowly, but sufficiently to move the price back into the zone of profitability. I exited at 24.7% of maximum potential profit.

For the lifespan of the position, shares declined by 4.4% over 20 days, or a -80% annual rate. The options position produced a 32.9% yield on debit for a +999% annual rate

 

INTC publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the MAR series of options, which trades for the last time 50 days hence, on March 17.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is 2.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

INTC’s IV stands in the 34th percentile of its annual range and the 52nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $37.61.

Premium: $1.82 MAR iron fly
INTC   Odds Delta
Calls
Long 40.00 83.6% 18
Break-even 38.82
Short 37.00 44.1% 59
Puts
Short 37.00 55.1% 41
Break-even 35.18
Long 34.00 85.9% 12

The premium is 61% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 0.6:1.

Decision for My Account

I have opened a position on INTC as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $37.60.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 26, 2017

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