Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Update 2/3/2017: MSFT hit my price target of25% of the maximum potential profit, and I exited.
Shares declined by 1.2% over eight days, for a -56% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.5% yield on debit for a +1,526% annual rate.
MSFT publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the MAR series of options, which trades for the last time 50 days hence, on March 17.
Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
MSFT’s IV stands in the 50th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
The price used for analysis was $64.02.
The premium is 57% of the width of the position’s wings.
The risk/reward ratio is 1.1:1.
The granularity of the MSFT options grid isn’t quite what I would like. I was forced to use an unbalanced pair wings, $7.50 for the calls and $5 for the puts, in order to get the odds I wanted.
Decision for My Account
I have entered a position on MSFT as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $3.58.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 26, 2017