The Week Ahead: Money and jobs

 

The Federal Open Market Committee holds its first money policy meeting of the Trump era, announcing its decisions on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time.

It is also a week for high-impact economic reporting.

The employment situation report covering the first month of 2017 will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

The less comprehensive private-sector ADP employment report, treated by traders as an  indicator of what the government report will show, will be published on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Also out are are personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from factory orders at 10 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from factory orders at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. and pending home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: The employment cost index at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metropolitan areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the ADP employment report at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., construction spending at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Productivity and costs and jobless claims, both at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index, both at 10 a

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields.

Treasury Debt

I’m discontinuing the “Treasury Debt” section. See the current Treasury Dept. debt calendar here.

Fedsters

A Federal Open Market Committee alternate takes to the podium this week: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Friday. Otherwise, silence reigns among the Fed glitterati.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 28, 2017

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