The Week Ahead: International trade

 

Statistics on international trade, a political hot potato in the emerging administration of President Trump, will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: International trade at 8:30 a.m. and the job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

 

Fedsters

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer addresses the Warwick Economics Summit in Coventry, U.K., on Saturday at 6:30 a.m. New York time. His topic: The Process of Monetary Policy. The event will be streamed live here.

Other members of the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to take to the podium during the week are Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Monday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Thursday.

One other Fed glitterati will make an appearances: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Thursday. He has no seat this year on the FOMC.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 5, 2017

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