The Week Ahead: Holiday, homes, manufacturing, FOMC minutes

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday.

Two residential real estate reports will be published during the week: Existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Friday, each at 10 a.m. New York time.

Also out, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash report on Tuesday at 9:45 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes ftom money regulators’ Feb. 1 meeting will be released on Tuesday at 2 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: U.S. markets closed.

Tuesday: PMI manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m.

Wednesday: Existing home sales at 10 a.m. and FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: New home sales at 10 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).



Fed Gov. Jerome Powell addresses the Forecaster’s Club of New York at 1 p.m. His topic: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.

Other members of the Federal Open Market Committee making public appearances are Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Tuesday.

One Fed alternate takes to the podium: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Tuesday.

Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, who steps down from his post on Feb. 28 and who has no position on the FOMC this year, speaks on Thursday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 19, 2017

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