The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, trade and more. Bonus: Yellen


Gross domestic product for the final quarter of 2016 gets a second look on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major economic reports that hit the Street during the week: Durable goods orders on Monday at 8:30 a.m., international trade in goods on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., and on Wednesday, personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey at 10 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen discusses the economic outlook in an appearance before the Executive Club of Chicago on Friday at 1 p.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, also known as the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:


Monday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. and pending home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: GDP and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index of conditions in 20 large metro areas at 9 a.m., the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Motor vehicle sales throughout th day, personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending, each at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book summarizing conditions in each Fed region at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.,  and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The ISM non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and Fed Chair Yellen’s public appearance at 1 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).



In addition to Fed Chair Yellen, three Federal Reserve governors have scheduled speeches during the week. All are members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer discusses the way the Fed makes monetary policy at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York on Friday at 12:30 p.m. New York time.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard delivers a lecture on the economic outlook and monetary policy in Cambridge, Massachusetts on Wednesday at 6 p.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome H. Powell speaks about innovation and technology as they relate to the payments system at the Roundtable on Blockchain: The Future of Finance and Capital Markets in New Haven, Connecticut on Friday at 12:15 p.m.

Other FOMC members speaking during the week are Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Monday and Wednesday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Friday.

FOMC alternates taking the podium are San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Thursday and Richmond Fed. Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Friday.

Others of the Fed glitterati making public appearances are Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, each on Tuesday. Neither holds a position on the FOMC this year.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 26, 2017