ADSK Analysis

Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)

Update 3/10/2017: ADSK fell sharply for three days after earnings were published and then rose back into the zone of profit, allowing me to exit at my target price, 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares experienced a net decline of 1.9% over eight days, or a -87% annual rate. The options positon produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +1,518% annual rate.


ADSK publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 50 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 41%, which is 3.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ADSK’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and the 58th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $87.76.

Premium: $8.25 Expire OTM iron fly
ADSK   Odds Delta
Long 105.00 92.3% 10
Break-even 95.75
Short 87.50 51.4 54
Short 87.50 48.7% 46
Break-even 79.25
Long 70.00 9.4% 6

The premium is 47% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 1.1:1.

Decision for My Account

I have entered a position on ADSK as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $87.80.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 2, 2017

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