The Week Ahead: Jobs, trade


Jobs again take the spotlight with the release of the employment situation report for February on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The private-sector ADP employment report will provide a preview on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

One other major report will add spice to the markets: International trade, out Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Monday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Factory orders at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: International trade at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday:  ADP employment at 8:15 a.m., productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


One lone member of the Fed glitterati takes to the podium this week: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Monday. He is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 5, 2017