The Week Ahead: GDP, income and outlays, trade


A third and final estimate of 4th quarter gross domestic product will be published on Thursday. Other major reports: International trade in goods on Tuesday and personal income and outlays on Friday.

All three reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen addresses the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s annual conference in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday at 12:50 p.m. Her topic: Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: International trade in goods at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metro areas at 9 a.m., consumer confidence at 10 a.m. and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at 12:55 p,m,

Wednesday:  The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and gross domestic product, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


Fed Gov. Jerome Powell addresses the West Virginia College of Business and Economics in Morgantown, West Virginia on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. His topic: America’s Central Bank: The History and Structure of the Federal Reserve.

Other Federal Open Market Committee members taking to the podium during the week, in addition to Yellen and Powell, are Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Monday and Wednesday, Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Thursday and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Friday.

San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, an FOMC alternate, makes public appearances on Wednesday and Thursday

Three others among the Fed glitterati who have no FOMC positions this year have speeches scheduled: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Wednesday and St. Louis Fed. Pres. James Bullard on Friday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 25, 2017