The Week Ahead: FOMC, jobs, income, outlays, global trade

The Federal Open Market Committee ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement that may include a further increase in the federal funds rate.

The Labor Dept. will publish its monthly report on the employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m.  Expect early guessing of the top numbers based on the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payroll company on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major reports for the week:  Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.

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CVX Analysis

Chevron Corp. (CVX)

Update 4/28/2017: CVX rose sharply after earnings wee published and then dropped back to near the short options strike prices, allowing me to exit at 29.5% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 0.8% over one day, or a +288% annual rate. The options position produced a 41.9% yield on debit for a +15,306% annual rate.


 

CVX publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CVX’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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GM Analysis

General Motors Co. (GM)

Update 4/28/2017: GM gapped higher at the opening bell after earnings were published and then declined sharply, ending up near its closing price the day before. I exited my position at 25% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed at net rise of 1.0% over one day, or a +346% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +40,758% annual rate.


 

GM publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GM’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 66th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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EXPE Analysis

Expedia Inc. (EXPE)

Update 4/28/2017: EXPE fell after earnings were published and I exited at 25.5% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 2.5% over one day, or a -964% annual rate. The options position produced a +34.1% yield on debit for a +12,462% annual rate.


 

EXPE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

EXPE’s IV stands in the 47th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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BIDU Analysis

Baidu Inc. (BIDU)

BIDU publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BIDU’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 90th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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SBUX Analysis

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)

Update 4/28/2017: SBU gapped sharply to the downside and then rose, retracing about 38% of the loss. I exited at 25.2% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net decline of 2.9% over one day, or a -1,075% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.8% yield on debit for a +12,319% annual rate.


 

SBUX publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

SBUX’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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INTC Analysis

Intel Corp. (INTC)

Update 5/1/2017: intc gapped to the downside after earnings were published and on the second day of trading, as the options approached expiration, reached a point where I could exit at less than my target price, at 17.9% of maximum potential profit. (My target is 25%.)

Shares declined by 2.3% over four days, or a -213% annual rate. The options positon produced a 21.7% yield on debit for a +1,980% annual rate.


 

INTC publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

INTC’s IV stands in the 58th percentile of its annual range and the 92nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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MSFT Analysis

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Update 4/28/2017: MSFT rose beyond the profit zone after earning were published but quickly dropped back, allowing me to exit at 52.8% of maximum potential profit.

Shares showed a net rise of 0.7% over one day, or a +264% annual rate. The options position produced a 111.7% yield on debit for a +40,758% annual rate


 

MSFT publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.

Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MSFT’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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