5/1 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
I completed five trades today, entering one position, AMD, and rejecting one after analysis, PFE.
Month: April 2017
The Week Ahead: FOMC, jobs, income, outlays, global trade
The Federal Open Market Committee ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement that may include a further increase in the federal funds rate.
The Labor Dept. will publish its monthly report on the employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Expect early guessing of the top numbers based on the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payroll company on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.
Other major reports for the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.
Live: Friday, April 28, 2017
CVX Analysis
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
Update 4/28/2017: CVX rose sharply after earnings wee published and then dropped back to near the short options strike prices, allowing me to exit at 29.5% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 0.8% over one day, or a +288% annual rate. The options position produced a 41.9% yield on debit for a +15,306% annual rate.
CVX publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CVX’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 78th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
GM Analysis
General Motors Co. (GM)
Update 4/28/2017: GM gapped higher at the opening bell after earnings were published and then declined sharply, ending up near its closing price the day before. I exited my position at 25% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed at net rise of 1.0% over one day, or a +346% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.3% yield on debit for a +40,758% annual rate.
GM publishes earnings on Friday before the opening bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
GM’s IV stands in the 46th percentile of its annual range and the 66th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
EXPE Analysis
Expedia Inc. (EXPE)
Update 4/28/2017: EXPE fell after earnings were published and I exited at 25.5% of maximum potential profit.
Shares declined by 2.5% over one day, or a -964% annual rate. The options position produced a +34.1% yield on debit for a +12,462% annual rate.
EXPE publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
EXPE’s IV stands in the 47th percentile of its annual range and the 87th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
BIDU Analysis
Baidu Inc. (BIDU)
BIDU publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
BIDU’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 90th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
SBUX Analysis
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
Update 4/28/2017: SBU gapped sharply to the downside and then rose, retracing about 38% of the loss. I exited at 25.2% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net decline of 2.9% over one day, or a -1,075% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.8% yield on debit for a +12,319% annual rate.
SBUX publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
SBUX’s IV stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 89th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
INTC Analysis
Intel Corp. (INTC)
Update 5/1/2017: intc gapped to the downside after earnings were published and on the second day of trading, as the options approached expiration, reached a point where I could exit at less than my target price, at 17.9% of maximum potential profit. (My target is 25%.)
Shares declined by 2.3% over four days, or a -213% annual rate. The options positon produced a 21.7% yield on debit for a +1,980% annual rate.
INTC publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 21%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
INTC’s IV stands in the 58th percentile of its annual range and the 92nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.
MSFT Analysis
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Update 4/28/2017: MSFT rose beyond the profit zone after earning were published but quickly dropped back, allowing me to exit at 52.8% of maximum potential profit.
Shares showed a net rise of 0.7% over one day, or a +264% annual rate. The options position produced a 111.7% yield on debit for a +40,758% annual rate
MSFT publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 23%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
MSFT’s IV stands in the 65th percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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