The Week Ahead: FOMC, jobs, income, outlays, global trade

The Federal Open Market Committee ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement that may include a further increase in the federal funds rate.

The Labor Dept. will publish its monthly report on the employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m.  Expect early guessing of the top numbers based on the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payroll company on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major reports for the week:  Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Vendor performance, sometimes called the delivers times index, form the ISM manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending, each at 10 a.m., and motor vehicle sales during the day.

Wednesday:  The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsinternational trade and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., factory orders at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday:  Employment at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Fedsters

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island on Friday at 1:30 p.m. Her topic: 125 Years of Women’s Participation in the Economy.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer discusses monetary policy rules an committees at a Hoover Institution conference, the Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy, in Stanford, California on Friday at 11:30 a.m.

Three federal reserve bank presidents participate in a panel on Friday at the same conference: James Bullard of the St. Louis bank, Charles Evans of Chicago and Eric Rosengren of Boston. Evans is a member of the FOMC. Bullard and Rosengren aren’t members of the FOMC this year.

San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, an FOMC alternate, participates in a debate at Hoover in Stanford on Saturday

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 29, 2017

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