The Week Ahead: Prices and retail

The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a religious holiday. Banks and the economic reporting machine will be open.

Two price indexes will be published during the week: The consumer price index on Friday and the producer final demand price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Also of note, retail sales on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a discussion with Susan Collins, dean of the Ford School in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Monday at 4:10 p.m.  The event will be streamed live here.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Fed Chair Yellen appearance in Ann Arbor at 4:10 p.m.

Tuesday: The job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury Budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the producer final demand price index, each at 8:30 a.m., consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The consumer price index and retail sales, each at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


In addition to Chair Yellen‘s appearance on Monday, one other of the Fed glitterati takes to the podium: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Tuesday. He, like Yellen, is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 8, 2017

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