The Week Ahead: Industry and Housing

Industry and housing top the economic reporting for the week.

Industrial production statistics will be published Tuesday at 9:15 a.m. New York time.

The housing reports are housing starts on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. and existing home sales on Friday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.

The leading indicators report will be published on Thursday at 10 a.m. Although based on leading indicators, it is not itself a leading indicator, but it provides a useful “You Are Here” marker within the business cycle.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Homebuilders housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Dept.’s international capital report at 4 p.m.

Tuesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book, a narrative survey of conditions in each of the Fed’s regions.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., leading indicators at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The Purchasing Managers Institute composite index flash report at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Fedsters

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on monetary policy communication to the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs in New York on Monday at 5 p.m. The speech will be streamed live here.

Two other members of the Federal Open Market Committee will speak during the week: Fed Gov. Jerome Powell on Thursday and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Friday.

Others among the Fed glitterati taking to the podium are Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Tuesday and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Wednesday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 15, 2017

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