The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, trade, homes

A first look at gross domestic product for the 1st quarter will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major reports out during the week: Durable goods orders and international trade in goods, both out on Thursday at 8:30 a.m., and new home sales on Tuesday at 10 am.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The Case-Shiller home price survey of 20 metropolitan areas, new home sales and consumer confidence, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsdurable goods orders and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday GDP and the employment cost index, each at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Fedsters

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard addresses a conference at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, on Friday at 1:15 p.m. New York time. His topic: Fintech, the technologies that are rapidly reshaping the financial industry.

Two other members of the Federal Open Market Committee during the week: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari twice on Monday and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Friday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2017

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