Baidu Inc. (BIDU)
BIDU publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.
I shall use the series of weekly options that trade for the last time eight days hence, on May 5.
Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
BIDU’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 90th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
The price used for analysis was $186.69.
| Premium: | $9.70 | Expire OTM | |
| BIDU-iron fly | Strike | Odds | Delta |
| Calls | |||
| Long | 207.50 | 92.2% | 9 |
| Break-even | 197.20 | ||
| Short | 187.50 | 53.8 | 49 |
| Puts | |||
| Short | 187.50 | 46.2% | 51 |
| Break-even | 179.70 | ||
| Long | 170.00 | 90.0% | 9 |
The premium is 52% of the width of the position’s wings.
The risk/reward ratio is 1.1:1.
Decision for My Account
BIDU is an expensive stock, and that carries more dollar risk than I care to assume. I’m passing the trade.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 27, 2017
[…] analyzed BIDU as a potential earnings play but declined to take […]
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