3/27 – 2:50 p.m. New York time
I analyzed BIDU as a potential earnings play but declined to take it.
3/27 – 1:25 p.m. New York time
I have exited AMGN and shall update the analysis with results shortly.
3/27 – 10:10 a.m. New York time
The pool of prospects hasn’t shrunk overnight, and indeed has grown by one.
In terms of relative implied volatility, MSFT, INTC, SBUX and BIDU are at the top of the pack, meeting my preferences both for IV within the recent range and the annual range.
EXPE, CVX (the addition) and GM are in the next level, with high IV relative to the recent range and in the 4th decile of the annual range, the latter being below my preference for the 5th decile (50th percentile) or higher.
Last of all, one in the basement: XOM, with sufficiently high IV with respect to the recent range in the context of the 3rd percentile of the annual range.
I shall work through the list in that order. My daily goal is no more than three new positions. I have no prospects in sight for Friday, so I’ll go as high as six positions today.
On the other side of the trading cycle, I exited DAL this morning for a profit and shall update the analysis with results shortly.
4/26 – 9:05 p.m. New York time
I will be looking at a large pool of prospects on Thursday: MSFT, INTC, SBUX BIDU, EXPE, XOM and GM.
That is more symbols than I want to trade on a single day, but at this point, I can’t pare the list down any further. I’ll see how they look on Thursday, and then work my way down the remaining prospects in descending order by implied volatility relative to both the annual and recent ranges.
I was able to eliminate three prospects today: AMZN because of the high price (more risk than I want to assume in a single trade), and GPRO and CVX because of their options grids.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 26-27, 2017