The Week Ahead: Prices, retail


Two price reports headline the week: The consumer price index on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time and the producer price index on Thursday, also at 8:30 a.m.

Also out, retail sales on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday:  Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and producer prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday:  Consumer prices and retail sales, each at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories  and consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


Four members of the Federal Open Market Committee take to the podium this week: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Tuesday, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Thursday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan, both on Friday.

One FOMC alternate speaks: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Monday.

Two other of the Fed glitterati have appearances: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Monday and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Tuesday and Wednesday.


By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 6, 2017