The Week Ahead: GDP, durables

The gross domestic product statistics providing a second estimate for the 1st quarter will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Durable goods orders will be released concurrently.

Two real estate reports will punctuate the week: New home sales on Tuesday and the far larger existing home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

Also out: the Purchasing Managers Institute composite flash report on Wednesday at 9:45 a.m., Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the May 2-3 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. and international trade in goods on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: New home sales at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  The PMI composite flash report at 9:45 a.m. and petroleum inventories and existing home sales, each at 10:30 a.m., and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and international trade in goods, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP and durable goods orders, each at 8:30 a.m., and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Fedsters

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard addresses the Minneapolis Fed’s conference on opportunity and inclusive growth on Monday at 7 p.m. New York time. The two-day conference, from Monday, will be live streamed hereMinneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari will address the conference on Monday at 10 a.m. and will introduce Brainard at 6:45 p.m. He will also participate in panel on Tuesday at 3:15 p.m.

Brainard, in his role as a former Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, will take part in a panel with two others who have held that position, Tim Adams, president and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, and Nathan Sheets, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The event is sponsored by the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C. and will be live streamed here.

Other appearances by FOMC members during the week are Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Monday, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Tuesday, Kashkari and Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Wednesday, and Kaplan again on Thursday

An FOMC alternate, San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, speaks on Friday.

Another of the Fed glitterati, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, who has no seat on the FOMC this year, makes an appearance on Thursday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 20, 2017

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