The Week Ahead: Employment, income, outlays, manufacturing, trade

In a reversal of T.S. Eliot, next week will begin with a whimper — the U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday — and will end with a bang — the always much anticipated employment situation report, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The employment report will be previewed on Thursday  by the private-sector ADP employment report, out at 8:15 a.m.

Three other major reports  will be published during the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index on Thursday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment situation report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, sometimes called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Thursday

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day.

Tuesday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metropolitan areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book, providing a narrative of conditions in each of the bank’s regions.

Thursday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing indexconstruction spending at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 5-year U.S. Treasury notes and  5-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).


Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the New York Association for Business Economics luncheon series in New York City on Tuesday at 1 p.m.

Another member of the Federal Open Market Committee takes to the podium: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Wednesday.

An FOMC alternate is scheduled to speak: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, also on Wednesday.


By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 27, 2017